More and more people are sending me information about this and about the RNC efforts across the nation to suppress voter registration and voter turnout. This included a PDF of a letter from Lucy Corelli, the Republican Registrar of Voters to Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal about a complaint she filed with the State Elections Enforcement Commission (SEEC). In her letter she writes
I am filing this complaint because I believe in the fair and democratic process. I feel fraudulent behavior should be discouraged and eliminated. Everyone who is eligible has the right to register and vote but this abuse of our system makes a mockery of one of our most precious rights.
Obamania
among
the nation's young voters has renewed interest in the
political
participation of the under-30 set. How are these voters
likely to affect
Connecticut elections?
Historical registration data on young voters is limited, but there is
some evidence of
increased interest. From November 2007 to
January 2008, 8,300
new young voters registered in Connecticut (24% of
all new voters). From February to May 2008, after the primary,
the number
of new young voters increased to 12,304 (37% of all new
voters).
The young have been less likely to register as Democrats or Republicans
and are more likely to be unaffiliated. However, new young voters
registering this year (mostly after the primary) are increasingly
likely to identify as Democrats.
Regardless
of their party affiliation, young adults are likely to vote Democratic.
A March Quinnipiac poll found that 73% of CT voters under age
35 would
vote for Obama
over McCain (compared to 52% of all voters). They
have been
voting for Democrats for the last few elections, according to exit
polls -- often at higher rates than other age groups.
Democratic voter
registration has been on
the
rise since 2005, a trend that may affect
electoral outcomes in changing regions like Fairfield
and Litchfield
counties. But what
kind of
towns and voters are
experiencing this change? Overlaying demographic
information can help to flesh out an answer. The CT
State
Data Center breaks down Connecticut towns into five
categories
based on
local income, poverty rates, and population density: urban
core (eg, Hartford, large cities), urban periphery (eg,
Norwich, small cities, inner ring), suburban (eg,
Cheshire), wealthy (eg, Westport), and rural (eg, North Stonington).
(These categories are more fully explained below the fold.)
The
GOP's
elected officials have had much of their success
in suburban, rural,
and wealthy towns, but they are losing ground among the
electorate
to
the Democrats in these towns, even among the highest-income voters.
On a percentage
basis, Democratic registration increased the most in wealthy towns
(16%), suburban towns (12%), and rural towns
(9%). In
terms of numbers
of
voters, the greatest increases were in suburban and urban periphery
towns. Democrats now slightly outnumber Republicans in the
suburbs,
reversing the GOP's previous advantage. Looking at the
changes
another
way, 41% of Democratic gains in the state were in the suburbs and 27%
were in urban periphery towns.
Republican registration
decreased across all town groups, with the greatest percentage losses
in urban
core, urban periphery, and wealthy towns.
Democrats
outnumber Republicans across all town groups, except for wealthy
towns. In part because of their initially smaller numbers,
Dems in the wealthiest towns had the largest percentage
increase. Dems
enjoy a huge advantage in large and small cities, have a
substantial advantage in rural
towns, and edge out the GOP by a small margin in suburban towns.
Change in voter
registration, Oct 2005 to Feb 2008
Town type
Dems
2008
Dem change
Dem % change
Repub 2008
R change
R % change
Ratio
D/R 2008
Rural
87,518
7,496
9%
64,660
-631
-1%
1.4
Suburban
166,660
17,383
12%
159,705
-2,769
-2%
1.0
Urban core
163,995
2,611
2%
23,960
-1,794
-7%
6.8
Urban periphery
248,645
11,400
5%
119,935
-7,814
-6%
2.1
Wealthy
29,076
3,949
16%
44,332
-2,203
-5%
0.7
Total
695,894
42,839
7%
412,592
-15,211
-4%
1.7
% measured as percent change, not percentage
point change.
Litchfield County was the last
county in the state
with more registered Republicans than Democrats, ever since Fairfield
County flipped to the Dems in 2002. But no more. As of the February
2008 Presidential primary, Democrats (now numbering 31,952) in
this former GOP stronghold have finally overtaken Republicans
(31,081) in voter
registration.
Since 2005, Democratic registration has
been on the rise
throughout the state. Of the six towns in the state with the greatest
percentage gains for Democrats between 2005 and 2008, five of them are
in Litchfield County: Warren (113% increase!), Sharon (38%), Salisbury
(33%), Canaan (25%), and Cornwall (22%). Every town in the county
gained Democrats over this period by an average of 9%, and all but two
towns lost Republicans by an average of 3%.
As in most
counties, both parties are substantially outnumbered by unaffiliated
voters, but the growth in Dems clearly reflects and has contributed to
political shifts in the county, as expressed in municipal, legislative,
and Congressional election results (detailed below).
However, at the state legislative level, Democrats have been
slow to respond to these electoral shifts. Eight of the nine House
Republican incumbents in the county got
a free ride into office
in 2006, unchallenged by any Democratic candidate. With district
nominating conventions approaching in May, there is still some time for
Democrats to declare themselves as candidates. But thus far
in 2008, even with the guarantee of equal financial footing through clean
elections funding, not a single Democrat has filed as a
candidate to challenge any House GOP incumbent in Litchfield County.
The costs of Democratic timidity are real and measurable. Three of the
five most
reactionary Republicans in the House represent Litchfield
County. (Five local legislators appear on another worst
list.) With no challengers, they have no incentive
to moderate their positions.
See below for more details on political shifts in the county
and recent trends in the towns.
The percentage of Connecticut voters who are registered Democrats has
been on the rise
since 2005, reversing a two-decade trend of declining Democratic
enrollment and increasing
unaffiliated registration. Meanwhile, Republican registration
has been
stagnant or declining for at least 50 years. A closer look at
Connecticut counties reveals how these statewide trends vary across
counties.
The
greatest loss of Republican enrollment was in the former Republican
strongholds of Fairfield and Litchfield counties. Indeed, the
loss in Fairfield County accounted for more than one-third of the GOP's
decline statewide. While the shifts are moderate, they do not
bode well for Chris Shays and the unchallenged
legislative Republicans
who are heavily concentrated in these two counties (particularly given
the equal financial footing provided by clean elections).
Democrats saw their greatest
percentage gains in Middlesex, Hartford, Fairfield, and New Haven
counties. Despite the high profile of the
Courtney-Simmons
race, Democratic registration in most of the counties overlapping that
district
budged the least.
2005-2007 Voter Registration Change by County
County
# Dems change
Dems % point change
# Repub change
R % point change
# Unaff change
U %
point change
Fairfield
4,143
1.3%
-7,604
-1.2%
-3,706
-0.2%
Hartford
2,290
1.4%
-5,677
-0.7%
-9,301
-1.0%
Litchfield
1,063
1.2%
-1,368
-0.8%
-1,304
-0.5%
Middlesex
522
1.5%
-1,082
-0.4%
-2,484
-1.2%
New Haven
2,778
1.3%
-3,611
-0.4%
-8,637
-1.0%
New London
789
0.9%
-1,283
-0.6%
-1,635
-0.5%
Tolland
716
1.2%
-470
-0.3%
-1,374
-1.1%
Windham
-133
0.1%
-505
-0.6%
-207
0.2%
Connecticut
12,168
1.2%
-21,600
-0.7%
-28,712
-0.7%
% measured as percentage point change, e.g., % of
voters who were
Ds in 2007 - % D voters in 2005; not percent change,
e.g., (2007
Dems - 2005 Dems)/2005 Dems.
Chris Dodd appeared on Meet the Press yesterday, and Tim Russert put Dodd through the ringer. Video and transcripts are now available on the MSNBC website.
Connecticut College is signing up new voters at a faster clip than usual, with some college students surprisingly expressing an interest in local elections. It's a small sampling of voters, but good to see improvement.
Joe Courtney made an appearance in Colchester yesterday, and got his picture in the paper. Unsurprisingly, people he spoke to said they were concerned about the war.
Any thoughts on the Dodd interview, voter registration, Courtney? What else is going on?
Update (tparty): As Spazeboy notes in the comments, Ned Lamont will be liveblogging at MLN about some great candidates in the upcoming municipal elections tomorrow, Tuesday Oct. 30th, at 1pm ET. Stop by tomorrow at lunchtime! (More on his endorsed candidates at NedLamont.com.)
Obamania
among
the nation's young voters has renewed interest in the
political
participation of the under-30 set. How are these voters
likely to affect
Connecticut elections?
Litchfield County was the 
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