Since most state legislative candidates are conducting their campaigns with the equal financial footing ensured by Connecticut's Citizens Election Program, they will compete not on the basis of how much money they raise, but on how strategically they spend their funds and organize their volunteers. One activity essential to any campaign's success is a drive to turn out the vote on election day. A new edition of "Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout," written by two Yale political scientists, gathers evidence from dozens of field experiments in real-life election campaigns (including some in Connecticut) to assess which methods of voter turnout are most measurably effective.
While the findings may not surprise seasoned campaign organizers, they will disappoint and frustrate political consultants who make their living off selling costly robocalls, advertising, mailings, and gimmicks. Instead, the research evidence reinforces the need for grassroots, person-to-person, volunteer-based campaigning to move voters to the polls.
What works in measurable, statistically significant terms:
Door-to-door canvassing. The "gold standard" of GOTV, it is the most cost-effective means and produces the greatest measurable increase in turnout - one vote per 14 contacts.
Phoning. At best, only half as effective as door to door, but the next best thing. Volunteer-based phone banks and phoning by specially coached commercial staff work best, increasing turnout by about 1 vote per 35-38 contacts. Calls from commercial phone banks without special coaching don't work well (about one per 180 contacts).
Election day festivals. Once a campaign standard, election day events rarely take place anywhere, but a few studies indicate that they increase turnout by 1 to 2 percentage points and are cost-effective. Pre-advertised festivals featuring food, drink, music and entertainment for kids outside polling places tend to draw voters in. In addition, first-time voter educational events for high school students can increase turnout by about 9 percentage points.
Nonpartisan direct mail. A barely significant and measurable impact, turning out only one vote per 200 recipients. Partisan direct mail makes no measurable difference.
What doesn't work: everything else. More details below.
Obamania
among
the nation's young voters has renewed interest in the
political
participation of the under-30 set. How are these voters
likely to affect
Connecticut elections?
Historical registration data on young voters is limited, but there is
some evidence of
increased interest. From November 2007 to
January 2008, 8,300
new young voters registered in Connecticut (24% of
all new voters). From February to May 2008, after the primary,
the number
of new young voters increased to 12,304 (37% of all new
voters).
The young have been less likely to register as Democrats or Republicans
and are more likely to be unaffiliated. However, new young voters
registering this year (mostly after the primary) are increasingly
likely to identify as Democrats.
Regardless
of their party affiliation, young adults are likely to vote Democratic.
A March Quinnipiac poll found that 73% of CT voters under age
35 would
vote for Obama
over McCain (compared to 52% of all voters). They
have been
voting for Democrats for the last few elections, according to exit
polls -- often at higher rates than other age groups.
Since most state legislative candidates are conducting their campaigns with the equal financial footing ensured by Connecticut's Citizens Election Program, they will compete not on the basis of how much money they raise, but on how strategically they spend their funds and organize their volunteers. One activity essential to any campaign's success is a drive to turn out the vote on election day. A new edition of "
Obamania
among
the nation's young voters has renewed interest in the
political
participation of the under-30 set. How are these voters
likely to affect
Connecticut elections?
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