Well, if you applied the partisan breakdown of the 1994 exit polls to this race, you get Blumenthal 51.5, McMahon 44.0. In other words, this Q poll is projecting a turnout scenario which is markedly worse for the Democrats than even 1994.
Inspired, I did the same for today's Gubernatorial Q-Poll and found that, while the difference isn't as pronounced as in the Senate Poll, the Democrat again fairs better with the partisan break down from 1994 (via exit poll data available here - roughly 34D-27R-38U (119/1500 respondents declined to list their partisan identification - these are removed to get the percentages)), than with the partisan breakdown used by the Q.
In today's poll, Malloy leads Foley 45-42 with 12 percent undecided. Using the 1994 partisan breakdown, Malloy would lead 46.9 to 42.6 with 10.5 percent undecided.
Their are two takeaways here:
1. Quinnipiac is using a partisan ID breakdown that is somewhere between a little and way worse for Democrats than the 1994 partisan ID breakdown was.
2. Quinnipiac doesn't release their partisan ID breakdown, so its incredibly hard to evaluate the decisions they made in determining who is a likely voter - and impossible to decide how much faith to put in their results.
The first point is certainly arguable. The partisan breakdown of voters in 2010 could be worse for Democrats than 1994's were. I don't think so - I think 1994 was probably the low-water mark for Democrats - but a case can be made.
The second point isn't - Quinnipiac should be releasing the partisan ID breakdown that makes up their likely voter screen - other pollsters do (and some even release all of their crosstabs, not just the toplines), and the transparency allows observers to decide for themselves how much weight to give the poll.
Since, aside from Rasmussen and all their baggage, Q-Poll is basically the only pollster polling these two races (at least so far, this might change as the races tighten), we (political junkies) need them to be more transparent, or we can't get the information we need to obsess over these races. And the press need the transparency to accurately portray these races for the non-political junkies among us.
As the Senate prepares to vote on health care reform, American voters "mostly disapprove" of the plan 53 - 36 percent and disapprove 56 - 38 percent of President Barack Obama's handling of the health care issue, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This is a national poll, not just Connecticut (from December 15 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,616 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points) but you can probably safely assume the numbers opposed are slightly better in Connecticut.
That said, the numbers below could even be higher and ought to make progressives bang their head against the wall in frustration:
While voters oppose the health care plan, they back two options cut from the Senate bill, supporting 56 - 38 percent giving people the option of coverage by a government health insurance plan and backing 64 - 30 percent allowing younger people to buy into Medicare.
Huh? What's this? Even Republicans support such a proposal (50-44)? Appears so.
A not-so-minor note from the Q Poll (emphasis added):
By a 78 - 17 percent margin, including 74 percent of Catholics, voters would support a law requiring all Connecticut hospitals, including Catholic hospitals, to provide emergency contraception to rape victims.
Joe Lieberman, of course, thinks rape victims who are brought to a Catholic hospital should be told to drag their ravaged bodies outside and hail a cab.
The latest Quinnipiac Poll shows Lieberman hanging on, but a nobody with zero name recognition is gaining ground.
U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman gets a 59 - 29 percent approval, compared to 63 - 25 percent February 16. In a possible Democratic primary, the incumbent beats businessman Ned Lamont 65 - 19 percent, with most Lamont supporters saying they are voting against Lieberman.
Running as an independent, Lieberman has 56 or 57 percent in possible three-way races, with Lamont challenging him on the Democratic line and either former State Rep. Alan Schlesinger or businessman Paul Streitz running on the Republican line.
Most Connecticut voters, 57 percent, know Lieberman supports the war in Iraq, but only 15 percent would vote against a candidate based only on his position on the war.
Presumably, this means that the Lamont vote being detected thus far is a protest vote. That should change as Lamont gets the message out about his broad based platform based on actual Democratic values.
The latest Quinnipiac Poll shows Jodi Rowland-Rell slipping, but not nearly enough.
The tally of 1,536 registered voters shows Rell easily vanquishing either of her potential Dem opponents, although there are reasons for hope in the fine print.
Rell buries two possible Democratic challengers:
66 - 20 percent over New Haven Mayor John DeStefano, compared to 70 - 16 percent February 16;
65 - 20 percent over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, compared to 70 - 15 percent.
By a 64 - 6 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Rell, with 19 percent mixed and 10 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Her challengers are relatively unknown: 60 percent don't have an opinion about DeStefano and 81 percent don't know enough about Malloy.
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