Lamont Says Lieberman Beatable, but Won't Challenge him in '12 In the past quarter century only four people have won Democratic senate primaries in Connecticut: Chris Dodd, Joe Lieberman, Dick Blumenthal and Ned Lamont. Despite his inclusion in this elite club, it is highly unlikely Lamont will run for the senate in 2012.
During a taping of "Face the State with Dennis House," Lamont told me he has been "through the meat grinder" a couple of times, and wants someone else to run, calling the Democratic party bench, "impressive." It is an unlikely scenario, but I asked Lamont if no one else were to run, and the party encouraged him to jump in, what would he say? "I don't think so," Lamont told me. He also believes Senator Joe Lieberman is beatable.
SNIP
And Himes also told Dennis House that he would not challenge Lieberman in 2012....
I was wondering what Linda McMahon would do on Election day, and whether or not the WWE would play a role in her campaign in some way, shape or form other than being the target of another ethical complaint.
As long as Linda McMahon has been the Republican Senate candidate in Connecticut, everybody -- even conservatives -- assumed her long, infamous ties to World Wrestling Entertainment would be a huge liability for her. But it might pay off for an unforeseen reason, particularly if her opponent's narrow lead keeps shrinking.
On November 2, voters and their families will face a choice: head to the polls to vote, or rush over after work to the Arena at Harbor Yard in Bridgeport for a rollicking night of "Smackdown" -- election night fun for the whole family.
The event has Connecticut Dems working the refs.
The show will begin at 6:45 p.m., a full hour and 15 minutes before the polls close in a district that went 60-40 for President Obama in 2008. The venue can hold up to 10,000 people. And Democrats are worried that -- whether they're stuck in traffic, or watching a large man in tights get bodyslammed -- a significant number of voters might not make it to the polls in time to vote.
That could spell bad news for Richard Blumenthal -- and worse news for Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT), whose lead over Republican challenger Dan Debicella is a modest 2.6 percent, according to the TPM Poll Average.
I heard rumors about it when I went back home from some friends who work on one of the campaigns in Fairfield County.
It seems, to me, that Linda McMahon will stop at nothing to win this campaign, and she certainly is up to the challenge of helping her Republican cronies across the state, particularly Dan Debicella.
Unpopular Obama Could Help Debicella, Caligiuri and Peckinpaugh Congressmen Jim Himes, Chris Murphy, and Joe Courtney are no doubt secretly hoping congressional business keeps them in Washington on Thursday. If their calendars on Capitol Hill are clear they might hope for thunderstorms to leave them stranded at Reagan National Airport, or a sudden case of something...anything to prevent them from being photographed with President Obama when he visits Connecticut.
The new Quinnipiac Poll shows the President's approval rating in the state in a tailspin: 45%, down from 50% in the last poll, and down from 71% in April of 2009. According to the mastermind behind the Quinnipiac University poll Doug Schwartz, the President's approval figure is even lower in the 2nd, 4th, and 5th districts.
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Only 38% of those polled in the 5th approve of the job President Obama is doing, and a whopping 60% disapprove. The 5th is also home to the highest unemployment in the state, 12.2% in the Waterbury area. On Face the State last week, Congressman Murphy said he would be proud to stand by the President on Thursday, but these new bleak numbers may have his advisors scrambling to find him another commitment, pronto.
Republican Sam Caligiuri is already tagging Murphy with a big "O" on his back. The only poll we have seen in the race so far is an internal one released by the Caligiuri campaign, showing the race a dead heat.
SNIP
The President's approval rating also tumbled in the 2nd district to 41% from 46%. Democrat Joe Courtney is going for a third team, and Republican challenger Janet Peckinpaugh is using part of the formula Courtney used to defeat Rob Simmons in '06: linking the incumbent to an unpopular president.
A look at the 2008 presidential primary suggests support for the President in Courtney's district may never have been that strong. When Barack Obama won the Connecticut primary he lost just one congressional district to Hillary Clinton: the 2nd.
SNIP
...Himes welcomes the President to his district this week, but will be in Washington for a vote. The President's approval rating in the 4th is now at 43%, down from 48% in the last QU Poll. Challenger Dan Debicella, like Caliguiri and Peckinpaugh have been calling their opponents rubber stamps for the President. In this anti-incumbent year, that could resonate with voters. President Obama's low approval ratings could also be a factor in the voting booth. A third of those polled in the QU survey said their vote for a senate candidate would be a vote against President Obama.
SNIP
Kaine's special announcement tomorrow better be a great one, else the Democrats, if these poll numbers remain the same or get worse, will flop again.
On may way to and from Hartford this evening, I saw many Linda McMahon signs and not a single Blumenthal one. I traveled on Routes 101, 44, 74 and I-84. Rtes 44 and 74 is where I saw the McMahon signs.
If the Republicans win these seats this year, the wimpy strategy of "bipartnership" that the Dems and Obama is to blame. Through their pro-Wall Street policies, they have deflated the enthusiasm of the base.
Last night Congressman Himes held the first of four town hall meetings to gather input from constituents about American involvement in Afghanistan. The Congressman's goals at these meetings are to share his concerns about the situation in Afghanistan and, more importantly, to learn where his constituents stand on the United States' policy in the region. Your opinions will be the most important factor to him as he considers future votes on this issue.
But today's article in the Stamford Advocate titled "At Stamford town hall meeting, Himes backs strong troop presence in Afghanistan" mistakenly asserts that the Congressman has already decided to support sending more troops to Afghanistan. Today's article gets the Congressman's position wrong. Mr. Himes has yet to decide if he will support sending more troops to Afghanistan and encourages your continued input as he works to better understand the many sides of this complex and challenging issue.
As the article states, the Congressman did ask those who oppose an increased troop presence in Afghanistan to explain "...how an unstable Pakistan and an Afghanistan in chaos fits into our security interests."
However, the Congressman also asked an equally important question of those who would support sending more American troops to the Afghanistan region: If you support the president's plan, do you believe the roughly $100 billion necessary to fund that effort should come from increased taxes, increased debt, or cuts to other programs?
The Congressman is holding three more town hall meetings on Afghanistan this week. Please come to share your thoughts on this topic if you were unable to attend last night's meeting. Click below the fold for more info.
Congressman Himes gave the following statement yesterday announcing his intention to vote in favor of the Affordable Health Care for America Act and urged his colleagues to support the legislation as well.
Full disclosure: I am Congressman Himes' Communications Director
Revised health care legislation was introduced in Congress Thursday. The legislation is still changing some, but we should have a good idea of what the final bill will look like soon.
Over the coming week, Congressman Himes will be sending out updates via email as more information about the improved legislation becomes available. Click here to sign up for the Congressman's email list. If you receive the Congressman's campaign email newsletters (The Himes Times), you need to register separately for this list that operates out of his official office. Sorry about the multiple lists; laws require we keep campaign and official communication separate.
Also, please let me apologize for not noting my affiliation with the Congressman's office in my last post--total oversight. FYI: I am Congressman Jim Himes' Communications Director.
Here's a video from today's House Financial Services Committee I thought you might appreciate. Rep. Himes called on the Republicans to stop their efforts to derail the regulatory overhaul and join Dems in fixing the economy and protecting jobs.
Yesterday morning, Congressman Hal Rogers (R-KY) sponsored a measure that would prohibit the transfer of Guantanamo Bay detainees to the United States.
The conceit here is that terror suspects are too dangerous to imprison in the United States. Of course, no one can seriously believe that, considering we've imprisoned 1993 World Trade Center attack mastermind Ramzi Yousef in the United States, as well as domestic terrorists Timothy McVeigh, Eric Rudolph and Ted Kaczynski. How many of the world's most dangerous prisoners have escaped from our Supermax prisons? None.
Unfortunately, 88 Democrats joined with 170 Republicans and passed the nonbinding resolution. Among the 88 are the usual suspects - Blue Dogs from red states like Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin of South Dakota and Walt Minnick of Idaho. So you can imagine my surprise when I saw our very own Congressman Jim Himes in the "yea" column. Was this the same Jim Himes who campaigned on his "fierce" patriotism, dedication to civil liberties and desire to investigate the abuses of the Bush Administration?
I watched President Obama's stirring address to a joint session of Congress on the urgent need to deliver on the American people's long-standing demand for real health care reform. The full video is here. At the beginning I was excited, hopeful and impressed. At the end I was moved to tears, knowing just how long and hard the battle has been for the moral and economic necessity of health care reform -- and how close we may be now.
But in between, as the President forcefully knocked down the most bogus claims of right-wing reform opponents, hearing a group of Congressional Republicans booing and heckling the President, followed by Republican Congressman Joe Wilson shouting "You lie" -- video of that segment is here -- it was all too clear that for a certain segment of Republicans, the extremes of their ideology have led them to emulate the sociopaths who tried to disrupt Democratic town hall health care forums this summer.
The Wilton, CT Democratic Town Committee tonight unanimously approved a strong Resolution for health care reform with a public insurance option, and urged representatives in Congress to stand with them at every stage of the legislative process.
The Resolution comes on the heels of a contentious public event Sunday, August 30 outside Wilton Town Hall where Congressman Jim Himes -- faced with a group using fear, prejudice and ignorance -- spoke with courage, conviction and intelligence about the need for a public insurance option as part of real health care reform in America.
I sat in on Congressman Himes' "telephone town hall" tonight, and took notes. For those who weren't able to participate, I'll try to reconstruct it to the best of my ability. I missed bits here and there but I think I got most of it. I haven't included any of my opinions, just what I took down.
The Congressman began by saying that health care reform was important to him. He said the current system is not sustainable. Costs rising 10% to 12% per year put great burdens on the government. He claimed that most of the auto industry's problems were caused by the costs of medical care for retirees and employees.
He feels that it is morally problematic that 50 million Americans don't have health insurance. Those without insurance treat at emergency rooms which is expensive and the cost of which is picked up by taxpayers and private insurance companies. This ends up being a "tax" of roughly $1100.00 per family.
The House bill will allow people with employer-provided insurance to keep it. It calls for an insurance "exchange," open to all. Private insurers will no longer be able to turn away those with pre-existing conditions. The bill includes Government subsidies to help pay for insurance for those making up to 400% of the Federal poverty level. Everyone would be required to buy insurance, either private or public. [and he said something I didn't catch regarding 2.5% of adjusted gross income.]
Himes' concern is that the bill doesn't address the inefficiencies in the current health care system. There are not adequate cost control mechanisms to control waste and fraud. He is delighted that Congress is taking on health care reform and gratified it wants to provide health care for all. He is gratified that the bill seeks to alter private insurance companies' behaviors re: recision and pre-existing conditions.
He is disturbed that not enough is done to address the underlying inefficiencies in the system. The current system operates on a "fee for service" model, which lends itself to ordering unnecessary services to clients. He wants to move to a system that rewards good results instead. Health care providers should have a stake in good health rather than in making money by ordering unnecessary tests and services. If Congress was serious about health care reform, they'd contain costs by doing away with inefficiencies and wouldn't be taxing the rich to pay for it. He sees the tax code returning to 1990s levels. We are faced with big economic problems and can't just go to the highest earners -- can't do that every time we have a deficit.
He thinks what is going on now is the "start of the discussion" and hopes there are more than three weeks more in the process. He hopes Congress takes more time.
Then he took questions:
Someone from Westport had fears about the impact of the bill on small business and asked what the impact of the bill would be on a business with ten employees.
Himes said employers would be required to provide insurance to employees or pay a penalty. He has discomfort with a penalty [and/or the word "penalty"]. He clarified that businesses with an annual payroll below $250k would be exempt from the penalty. Businesses with payrolls between $250k - $400k would pay a graduated penalty between 4% and 6%. Those make up 4% of all businesses. He said he had signed a letter to the speaker regarding the effect of the bill on small businesses.
Bill from New Canaan, who is dependent on his employer-provided health insurance expressed concern about being taxed on his insurance benefits.
Himes said the bill as written includes no tax on insurance benefits, and that it was not under consideration. He pointed out that taxing health insurance benefits was John McCain's idea during the Presidential campaign, and that Obama opposed it. He said some economists believe there should be a tax on the benefits as a way of covering some of the cost of the reform. He doesn't disagree with that.
Sarah from Oxford said she heard people would be forced to sign up for the public plan if they lost their insurance.
Himes explained that if people lose their jobs/insurance, they are eligible for the exchange, in which private companies compete with the public option. You choose. The idea is that the competition from the public option will lower the price offered by the private insurers. The bill includes affordability credits to help those who have lost their jobs.
Then there was a survey for the participants: "How should we pay for health care reform?" Options were 1) Do nothing (no reform); 2) Tax insurance benefits; 3) Increase taxes on high wage earners and; 4) Eliminate costs in the system.
Caller Maria from Fairfield was worried about "the insurance industry going national" like Great Britain.
Himes said this is a completely different system from nationalized health care -- a uniquely American system that includes choice, because Americans love choice.
[I missed a bit on the concern about companies turning employees loose in a private v. public system.]
Nils from New Canaan cited page 16 of the bill concerning whether people can go outside the exchange if they want to change insurance coverage. Will private plans be allowed? Himes said private plans in existence would be grandfathered, and private plans would have a five year grace period to meet the minimum standards contained in the bill. There would be no restrictions on buying additional coverage, or "gold plated" plans.
Barbara from Monroe brought up Medicare and was concerned about the parceling of services and cut backs on treatment. She asked if there was a possibility that Medicare will pay for more preventive care under reform.
Himes said the good news was that the "donut hole" now in effect in Medicare is closed in the bill. The bill also eliminates the cost-share for preventive care. The bad news is that Medicare is currently economically unsustainable. Medicare currently reimburses for everything a doctor orders. He thinks that at some point judgements will need to be taken. Patients go to MD.com and then ask their doctors for 20 tests. The doctors, who get paid for doing the tests in the current fee-for-service system, just order them whether they're necessary or not. He said treatment must be evidence-based. Barbara asked who would be making the decisions/treatment plans and Himes discussed the HMO model [I missed bits of that] He said there is a need to change your discussion with your doctor so the treatment you get is not volume-based -- that you get the two tests you need and not the 18 you don't.
Cindy from Darien is concerned about paying for programs. She thinks providing insurance for everyone is good for the country but how do we address people who aren't supporting taxes. She is afraid illegals -- the "underworld" -- will benefit from the proposed reforms. Himes made it clear that the bill contains no coverage for undocumented aliens. He pointed out that leaves 12 million people without insurance under this plan. Right now the system is paying for them and there will be no change in that. They will go to emergency rooms with big problems and hospitals will continue to have unreimbursible costs from treating them. Humanity requires you to treat people who show up. We need a comprehensive immigration policy and secure borders.
Lily in Stamford asked about increases in private insurance premiums, with Anthem asking for a 30% increase; it will be a good plan if the bill brings down private insurance costs.
Himes said he is not satisfied with the cost containment provisions in the bill. He mentioned that the bill will cap overhead expenses for private firms in the exchange at 15%.
Rick from Monroe talked about the CBO director's comment that the bill would expand federal costs and drive the economy into the ground. He is concerned about imposing penalties on small business.
Himes agreed that could be bad if done wrong. He said again that the bill doesn't do enough towards cutting fundamental costs. He has not made peace that it doesn't cut fundamental costs and encourage healthy lifestyles. It doesn't encourage new doctors and nurses who will practice health-based medicine rather than specialize because that's where the money is. He can see voting against the bill if it is not done right. The US is paying twice what the rest of the world does on health care and isn't high on the list for quality care.
Another survey: "What type of reform do you want?" 6) No change (no reform); 7) Single payer; 8) hybrid as in the current bill; 9) hybrid with no public option.
Rick in Westport expressed concern about the speed with which this bill is being acted upon. There are contradictions in the plan. Medicare is full of waste and fraud and no one has ever dealt with it. It will be pushed through, like the stimulus and like cap and trade. Congress is hiding something.
Himes said Congress isn't trying to hide anything. He thinks more time should be taken. Getting the bill done fast is due to concerns that are political -- he said the President and Speaker think that health care reform will die a death by a thousand cuts if things go slower. Himes said it was necessary to act quickly on the stimulus because we were losing 20,000 jobs a day. He said the energy issue had been talked about for a long time. [missed a bit here] He said there have been 80 hearings on health care [missed some here]. He said he did not say Medicare's problems are caused by waste and fraud. Seniors love Medicare. Medicare says yes to everything. It runs more efficiently than private plans do.
Howard, who works in the medical field, wants to know how private plans can compete with a public option.
Himes said the private plans will be capitalized up front and that money is repayable. They will be asked to provide a "plain vanilla plan" which will compete with the public option. He said costs can be cut by the private sector -- Medicare functions more efficiently, has no advertising costs, no high executive salaries...
Jackie from Westport brought up the issue of pre-existing conditions.
Himes said those in the exchange are forbidden to reject people based on pre-exisiting conditions. right thing to do. It is expensive to filter people out. Talked about buying his own insurance and the company sent someone to his house to question his wife and him -- asked if they were going to have more children. Would have rejected them if they were. It's expensive to do that to reject people. No recision allowed in exchange. Morally wrong.
Gene in Monroe said he realized Himes' caution about due diligence, but said there was danger in procrastination. He asked if small businesses can buy into the public program for employees.
Yes, they can participate in the exchange. Companies with 10-25 employees will get a tax credit of 50% of the cost. Businesses can also get together and buy in to plans as a group.
That was the end of the questions.
Himes has a health care blog on his website now. Call his offices in Bridgeport and Stamford with questions and comments.
When Rep. Jim Himes (CT-04) posts his 2nd quarter numbers with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) next week, he'll reach a significant milestone nearly 16 months in advance of the 2010 election.
Since the mainstream newspapers no longer report on DTC meetings in Greenwich, it makes sense for the internet to pick up the slack! Here goes!
At last night's meeting of the Greenwich Democratic Town Committee at Town Hall, Democratic Selectwoman Lin Lavery reported that the town had contacted Congressman Jim Himes (D-4CD) to help request federal funds from the federal stimulus package. Himes told her that Greenwich was the last town in his congressional district to contact him about federal help. Himes arranged to meet town officials to discuss eligible projects and to decide on those that would qualify. At first, Lin Lavery was excluded from the meeting by the Republican First Selectman Peter Tesei, only inviting Democrat Frank Farricker, who serves on the Greenwich Planning & Zoning Commission. But Himes requested that Lavery be permitted to attend, and she was brought in to the meeting.
There will be a rally for Jim Himes on Saturday, October 25, with special guest Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Texas), Jim Himes, State Representative Andres Ayala, State Senator Ed Gomes, and State Representative Don Clemons, from 11 am to noon. The rally will take place at East End Democratic Headquarters, 1113 Stratford Avenue, Bridgeport. More information is available at (203)332-6100.
As previously noted on MLN, Bridgeport is the key to this super-important Congressional race. Those who wish to volunteer for the Himes campaign either before the election or on Election Day can contact the phone number above or go to the headquarters in downtown Bridgeport at 1016 Broad St., 2nd floor. See you there on November 4.
(A significant promotion which wouldn't have been made lightly by Sabato. - promoted by Scarce)
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U. Va. Center of Politics and author of the "Crystal Ball", writes in today's newsletter that the Democratic wave in the House and Senate races continues to build, and changes his rating of the Connecticut 4th C.D. race from Leans "R" to Leans "D". Sabato is one of the most respected (and conservative) political scientists in the field of polling and his prognostications proved close to the mark in 2006. The swing in the 4th C.D. rating is a large one as it moves not just one rating to "toss-up" but two spots from Leans "R" to Leans "D". Keep up the good work, Jim!
Yesterday, the Washington Post highlighted the importance of black voter turnout in two close Congressional races: The 4th CD race here in Connecticut and the 8th CD race in North Carolina.
In NC, Democrat Larry Kissell, a former textile plant manager, is giving incumbent Republican Robin Hayes, heir to the Cannon Mills textile fortune with a personal wealth of nearly $79 million, a run for his "money."
Kissell is one of at least 10 white Democrats in white-hot competitive U.S. House races who are counting on a surge of black voters to carry them into office. Most are challenging incumbent Republicans, and they are central to Democratic hopes of picking up as many as 25 additional seats, strengthening the party's control of the House.
Tip for the GOP: Beware of unintended consequences....
There is a certain irony in the pivotal role that blacks could play in congressional elections, given how some of the districts were drawn, [David] Bositis said. "When these districts were designed, certain assumptions were made about what black turnout would be so that the district would pretty much favor Republicans," Bositis said. "Now, all of a sudden, you have an election . . . where African Americans are enormously excited and mobilized. Not only that, you have the Obama campaign going out of its way to make sure these voters are registered and are going to turn out."
Add the dampened mood among Republicans and the situation "has the potential of putting the Democratic candidates over the top," Bositis added.
And here in Connecticut...
Hundreds of miles north, black voters are playing a decisive role in Connecticut's 4th Congressional District, home to the manicured estates of Greenwich and Darien. Republican incumbent Christopher Shays is fighting a vigorous challenge by Democrat Jim Himes, an investment banker-turned-social entrepreneur.
The battle for control of the wealthiest district in the wealthiest state in the country is being fought in the gritty streets of Bridgeport, where most of the district's African Americans live.
"Bridgeport is key to this whole election," said Gary L. Rose, who chairs the department of political science at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, Conn. "It's kind of wild what's going on here. We're dealing with the very impoverished part of the district, and that's where the energy seems to be."
The importance of the black vote is so great, even though it represents just 11 percent of the district, that Shays is running ads directly aimed at Bridgeport that feature African American residents testifying about his effectiveness in Congress. Another Shays ad includes an image of Obama, in the most direct attempt by a House Republican to tie himself to the top of the Democratic ticket.
Himes based his campaign headquarters in Bridgeport and has sent mailings tailored to African American voters. He has met with minority organizations and, like Kissell and others, has made the rounds of black churches.
I missed most of the Himes-Shays debate apart from a few minutes here and there (I had the radio on in the car while driving between errands) but caught a funny exchange at the end with Shays's campaign director Michael Sohn.
Sohn's take was that Himes only had "generic ideas and cookie cutter comments", as if acknowledging the economic dire straits facing Connecticut voters is somehow "cookie cutter". And yet when asked to highlight Shays's performance, Sohn gave...
...a cookie cutter response about experience, bipartisanship (awesome) and understanding the "realities" of how Congress works.
It strikes me as more than a bit odd that the last Republican Congressman in New England (he made a joke about being an "endangered species") who makes no effort to conceal his desire to hitch his wagon to Barack Obama in what is unequivocally viewed as a change election, would make a point to remind voters that Congress is an unresponsive, unproductive institution. If anything, Obama voters who really do believe in change will come to the conclusion that changing the Presidency is not likely to be enough. We've heard the "experience to get things done" argument before, and the bipartisanship argument before, in Lieberman's 2006 campaign. I don't think it's gonna work for Shays this time around, no matter how tightly he pretends to cling to Obama.
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