A couple of clips from Jim Himes' (CT-04) first week in office. In the first, Rep. Jim Himes before House Financial Services Committee questioning Fed Vice Chair Donald Kohn. On the floor yesterday, Himes remarks on the draft recovery bill. A welcome change, no doubt, to have a representative who actually understands the issues involved, rather than simply the politics.
Jim Himes and the rest of the Connecticut House contingent get sworn in today. Himes was also notified that he won a spot on the financial services committee. Also a big day for "Rep. John Larson, the new chairman of the Democratic caucus, and Rep. Rosa DeLauro, co-chair of the steering and policy committee (in addition to her spot on appropriations.)"
[Himes] lands in Congress with an advantage over some other freshmen: His state's delegation includes Rep. John Larson, the newly elected chairman of the Democratic caucus, and Rep. Rosa DeLauro, co-chairwoman of the group that gives committee assignments.
On Wednesday, the all-Democrat Connecticut delegation formally welcomed him at the Capitol. "We're a small delegation," said Sen. Chris Dodd. "We need to work closely together." Sen. Joe Lieberman added, "There's a lot of power in this small delegation." And Larson joked about Himes looking to DeLauro for a committee assignment: "Jim, appropriately suck up at the right time." [...]
By December, he'll have at least one committee assignment. He's hoping to be on the Financial Services Committee and the Transportation Committee. He wants to use his 12-year Goldman Sachs finance background to weigh in immediately on the nation's economic crisis.
His family - wife, Mary, and two daughters, aged 9 and 6 - will still live in Cos Cob, though Himes said he hopes to be back home as much as he can. [...]
There's one piece of advice he's already received. His new colleagues have warned him about any notion he'll immediately fix the country's problems. He said they told him, "Shift your priorities to really serve your constituents directly."
The first clip is from election night when Brian Williams announced that the last republican congressman has just been defeated in New England.
The second clip is from 11.07.08 and features Shays jobhunting in the Obama administration.
This is going to be a very exciting administration,'' Shays said in an interview on MSNBC that was quoted by politco.com. "I think obviously I'd be interested in doing something that the president was interested in.''
Shays added, "They have so many important positions to fill, and I think they're going to focus on that. But I have a lot of friends who have asked me would I like to work in this administration, and I said, you know, I would.''
Chuck Todd on NBC's Today Show just gave as one of the things to look for in tonight's elections is a loss for Chris Shays in CT-04 and the subsequent loss of New England for the Republicans. This would in effect turn them into a regional party of narrow interests, rather than a national party. It remains to be seen if that would be enough of a shock to rouse the republicans from their nearly thirty year descent into the narrow extremism of the radical right, or whether they embrace this fatalism even further in 2012 by nominating someone like a Sarah Palin.
Rep. Shays greeted early morning commuters at the Stamford train station, taking time again to observe the passing of John McCain's presidential ambitions. And then he hurried over to get some early morning training as a Wal-Mart greeter.
This is not good news for Shays as Sabato will be all over the television until the election. The big one is he has Obama winning in a landslide, and that will garner most of the attention, naturally. But for anyone on the bubble like Shays they do not want this meme getting out there that they will lose.
In 2004, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball website correctly predicted the outcome of 525 of the 530 political races, missing only one House race, one Senate race, one governor's race, and two states in the Electoral College.[6]
In August 2006, Sabato's Crystal Ball predicted that the Democrats would gain 29 seats in the House of Representatives and 6 seats in the Senate, which would provide them with a majority in both houses. Sabato's prediction that the Democrats would win back both houses proved correct; his Senate predictions were exactly correct and in the House, Democrats gained 29 seats on election night, the precise total predicted by the Crystal Ball (Democrats would go on to pick up a 30th seat in the December 12, 2006 run-off in Texas' 23rd district).[7]
Edit: Chris Matthews also picked up on this later today on "Hardball".
Virtually certain now of McCain's imminent defeat Chris Shays effectively tosses McCain under the bus. In an interview with the Yale Daily News:
NEW CANAAN, Conn. - The first ballot has yet to be tallied, but some Republicans are already hammering nails into the McCain-Palin campaign's coffin.
Locked in a tight congressional race, Rep. Chris Shays of Connecticut's 4th district is the latest in a slew of Republican incumbents, including Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, to concede a near-certain victory to the Obama camp.
"I just don't see how [McCain] can win," Shays said in an interview here on Sunday.
Shays, the Connecticut co-chair of McCain's campaign, said he was disappointed by the standards of McCain's race, which has increasingly relied on mudslinging.
"He has lost his brand as a maverick; he did not live up to his pledge to fight a clean campaign," Shays said.
"He's taken the thing that is most valuable, his (maverick) brand, and he's not staying true to it," Shays said. "I admire John McCain more than you can imagine. He would make a great president."
But, Shays added, "I don't see how he wins if he isn't true to who he is ... a straight shooter talking about the issues."
I suppose this would be surprising coming from the co-chair McCain's Connecticut campaign if it were anyone else but Chris Shays. But right now survival is the name of the game and it's every man for himself.
The NY Post has a scathing article about Chris Shays and his efforts to deal with the mortgage crisis.
The riskiest type of government-backed mortgages could soon return to haunt the country.
Rep. Christopher Shays, the embattled lawmaker in a close race for his seat in tony Fairfield County, Conn., is quietly pushing to overturn a recently implemented White House ban on Federal Housing Administration mortgages made with seller-financed down payments to buyers who don't have the cash for a down payment.
The Bush Administration, which barred these no-money-down mortgages as of Oct. 1 because they go to foreclosure three times as often as FHA mortgages in which the buyer puts a down payment on the house, said most of the $4.6 billion lost on FHA loans came from the seller-financed down payment assistance, or SFDPA, loans.
Connecting the dots paints a damning picture against Shays:
However, Shays' support of 6694 has raised a few eyebrows in his district.
For starters, the National Association of Realtors, whose members stand to benefit greatly from the commissions they will earn on the SFDPA mortgages, had its political action committee pump a staggering $804,371.69 into Shays' campaign so far this year for direct mailings, TV time and other items, federal filings show.
The first NAR-PAC pro-Shays TV spot aired the same week he helped get his Financial Services Committee to approve 6694.
At the same time, Shays' brother, Tony, is a real-estate broker whose Stamford firm stands to benefit from the reintroduction of the SFDPA program, as it caters to low-income buyers.
While not conclusive this certainly looks bad. And for Chris Shays, coming little more than a week from the election, it could be the final stake in his heart.
Chris Shays sat down with the editorial board of the Danbury News-Times this afternoon to cover a wide variety of subjects, one of which was his infamous kiss of George Bush at this year's State of the Union Address.
I've included both a long and shorter remixed version for your viewing pleasure.
Huffington Post has the ever earnest, ever ridiculous face of Chris Shays adorning their frontpage at the moment. They're featuring a story by Stuart Rothenberg, well-known political analyst, from CNN detailing how precarious Shays' hold on his seat has become.
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Chris Shays of Connecticut, the last Republican in the House of Representatives from New England, is used to running against the partisan tide. But this year, the wave might be too high for the Republican congressman to overcome.
Recent polls show Republican Rep. Chris Shays tied with or trailing his Democratic opponent in Connecticut.
Recent polls show Republican Rep. Chris Shays tied with or trailing his Democratic opponent in Connecticut.
Shays is just one of many GOP candidates trying to win by outperforming Sen. John McCain's underwhelming performance in congressional districts nationwide.
McCain, R-Arizona, trailed Illinois Sen. Barack Obama by 21 points in Connecticut's 4th District, according to an October 13-14 SurveyUSA poll for Roll Call newspaper. A just-released University of Connecticut poll and a mid-September survey by the Democratic Feldman Group also had Obama winning by at least 20 points. By comparison, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won the district by just 6 points four years ago.
Recent public and private polling shows Shays either tied with or trailing his Democratic opponent Jim Himes. In 2004, Shays got 6 more points than President Bush, but the congressman will need a significantly larger number of Obama voters to cross over this year.
McCain's non-existent coattails run counter to the initial conventional wisdom that said his moderate style and crossover appeal would lift Republican candidates down ballot. That's just not the case two weeks out from Election Day.
The Bloomberg endorsement reminded me of a couple of other New York celebrities to weigh in on this election, but these guys are firmly behind Jim Himes: Mike (Francesa) and the Mad Dog (Chris Russo, who lives in New Canaan):
UPDATE: I should mention that this segment aired back in February, right after the Roger Clemens steroid scandal found its way to Washington DC. That's where Shays screwed up the names of Rafael Palmeiro and the Chicago White Sox, among other embarrassing moments. See ctblogger's original diary from that event. It's a classic.
Add Mike and the Mad Dog to the pile of endorsements from Connecticut's leading Democratic officials, as well as from teachers, the Working Families Party and many others.
Himes even picked up an endorsement from Baba Booey (Gary Dell'Abate), another radio personality and a Fairfield County resident.
In the second Jim Himes-Chris Shays debate, Shays gave the wrong answer to one of the most crucial questions of the election: What caused the economic collapse and how do we prevent another one?
Shays, who is a senior Republican on the House Financial Services Committee, should know that deregulation of the private banking industry caused the crisis. Yet, he wrongly blamed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Even worse, to the question of how do we prevent future meltdowns, Shays said nothing about regulating the private financial services industry!
Even some Republicans are willing to admit that the challenges we face as a nation go beyond partisan politics. Harry Clark is one such Republican.
Clark, a Greenwich resident and former member of Chris Shays Finance Committee, now endorses Jim Himes:
I have supported Christopher Shays in every one of his congressional campaigns. I served on his Finance Committee. Shays is a good and decent man, an honest and dedicated public servant. He has been effective on environmental issues and on a range of social issues. Nevertheless, I will not be voting for Shays this fall. I will be voting for Jim Himes.
Jim Himes, who is challenging Chris Shays, in Stamford with two volunteers, Judy Dunn, left, and Anne Marie Sutton.
The New York Times has a glowing report on Jim Himes today and state of the race in CT-04.
Mr. Himes, 42, a former Goldman Sachs investment banker who is an executive with a nonprofit agency that builds urban housing, bounded to the lectern. He even looked Obamaesque, with his wiry runner's build, delivering a brisk, rather generic call for change, focusing on education, health care, the economy and getting the country back on track.
At least one constituent also see's the link.
"I remember when Shays first ran for mayor of Stamford," said James Perrone, a psychology professor at the Stamford campus, referring to a 1983 race that Mr. Shays lost. "Back then, he really was a moderate. Since then, he's sold out and drunk the Republican Kool-Aid. Lieberman too. This year, I think Obama is going to be able to carry Himes along with him."
The piece ends by calling Shays "A contortionist", having escaped previous attempts to unseat him. They could just as well have been talking about the political positions he's managed to put himself into while hauling water for Bush republicans.
Jim Himes nails Chris Shays for his phony attempt at health care reform. At the debate in Bridgeport yesterday, Himes slammed Shays for not supporting the Langevin Health Care Bill back in 2004 and 2005, when Shays' support would have really mattered.
A frontpage story in the Hartford Courant by Mark Pazniokas is painting a similar picture to what many here have said about Shays' performances so far: Shays is taking any criticism of his record as some kind of personal attack, acting petulantly in response. Incumbents often employ this type of strategy when they're confronted with the difficult dillemma of defending the failed policies they helped to create. They'll try to paint themselves as sympathetic characters caught in difficult circumstances. And they'll try to distract whenever they can. Hey! look over here!
Shays told the Bridgeport audience that one mailing by congressional Democrats took a vote out of context to portray him as unsympathetic to wounded veterans. It depicted a bloody soldier.
"I went to bed last night at about 1 o'clock. I woke up at 4 thinking about it," Shays said. "I couldn't get it off my mind."
Himes, a former Goldman Sachs vice president who works for a nonprofit housing developer, said all his campaign ads and brochures are based on specific votes and statements by Shays.
He apologized for nothing.
"I have no doubt that he's dismayed by the tone of the ads, but our ads are about the economy and about the war," Himes said after the second debate. "So my guess is at heart he's dismayed by the results of the policies which he's pursued on the economy and the war."
That might even win Shays some support among low-information voters who want to believe whatever Shays says.
What won't him much support are his views on Health care, which the Bridgeport debate focused on.
Himes favors allowing the federal government to negotiate drug prices for Medicare, which Shays opposes as tantamount to price controls.
"I'm willing to lose the election over that," Shays said.
Himes said that the federal government must be freed to use its buying power and cut costs for a Medicare system projected to become insolvent in 10 years.
Careful what you wish for, Christopher. Seniors who look at your record on Health care, and your views on privatizing Social Security, may have some unpleasant news for you on Nov 4th.
(Shays whiny and petulant? What's new? - promoted by Scarce)
(Chris Shays defends failed Bush economic policies, Bridgeport Debate, 10/14)
(Jim Himes' Opening Statement at Bridgeport Debate, 10/14)
Just got back to the office from the debate in Bridgeport, which focused on health care. Congressman Shays was defensive for the entirety of the debate - defending his positions against allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices, his procedural vote against S-CHIP, and his support of the disastrous Bush economic policies.
U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays and Democratic challenger Jim Himes finally engaged, face-to-face this morning, exchanging charges on tax cuts, health care and the nation's perilous economic state.
During a nearly 90-minute debate in Housatonic Community College -- the first of seven candidate forums over the next week -- Shays called Himes' campaign attacks of the last few months "scurrilous" and "deceptive."...
"I frankly hope that this election is decided on the facts," Himes said in the college's new $55-million Beacon Hall. "If this election is decided on the facts we will see wholesale change in this country, the kind that we need. The fact is, for a long time Chris Shays has been wrong on the critical issues of the day: on the war and the economy."
Or is he, as seen in this Hardball clip from last night, just side-stepping the question yet again? The Obama campaign has already begun slamming McCain on his reckless approach, as seen in this ad below released this morning. The Wall Street Journal has already come out against it.
On the other hand, home prices are likely to keep falling despite the McCain plan if the economy goes into recession, so the best defense against that is to unfreeze the credit markets more quickly via capital infusions from the Paulson facility. And unlike the Paulson plan, the McCain proposal appears to offer no upside for taxpayers. They take all the losses up front and don't participate in any rebound in house prices, so borrowers who overextended and lenders who made reckless loans are made whole, and taxpayers get the bill. At least the $300 billion FHA program imposes at least a 10% haircut on lenders.
Where does Shays stand? As McCain's Co-Chairman for Connecticut it would be interesting to get a straight answer.
At yesterday's House Oversight Committee's review of Lehman Brothers, Chris Shays (CT-04) caused a bit of a ruckus by taking exception to not being able to deliver opening remarks. Shays, much to his own consternation, is not the chairman or the ranking republican member so didn't get the precious facetime he so desperately craves. Later, just before break to a 1/2 empty room, Shays would get to deliver his oh so important statement. You can read it for yourself. Shays, and later nutjob Rep John Mica (FL-07), were railing against the hearings for not going after Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and that these hearings were a sham.
In truth, these things are political theater, which aren't meant to do much but point fingers at bad guys like Richard Fuld of Lehman and say "See, we are doing something to help the little guy by talking about executive pay and bonuses and Wall Street greed." But they certainly aren't helped by the antics of Shays and his fellow House republicans. One only has to recall with embarrassment Shays' past performances with Blackwater CEO Eric Prince and GSA Administrator Lurita Doan.
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