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My Left Nutmeg

Lieberman loses his Joementum

by: ctblogger

Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 10:35:18 AM EDT


Since Joe Lieberman went back on his promise to help the Democrats take back the White House in 2008, and given his recent statements about the Democratic Party in general, Daily Kos hired independent pollster Research 2000 to get a sense of how voters (including those "stick with Joe" Democrats) in Connecticut currently feel about the junior senator.

Lets just say that the poll produced some interesting results when it comes to Lieberman's popularity among independents and Democrats who voted for him in November 2006. Read all the goodies below the fold.

ctblogger :: Lieberman loses his Joementum
Given Lieberman's high-profile efforts on behalf of John McCain, I wondered how his constituents were taking it. So I had independent pollster Research 2000 reprise a poll I commissioned last year testing a rematch between Ned Lamont and Joe Lieberman. I found last year that buyer's remorse had set in. It's even worse this year.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/31-4/2. Regular voters. MoE 4% (9/10-12/2007 results)

 

If you could vote again for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?

 

All

 

Lamont (D)      51 (48)  
Lieberman (I)   37 (40)  
Schlesinger (R)  7  (9)

 

 

Democrats

 

Lamont (D)      74 (72)    
Lieberman (I)   19 (25)
Schlesinger (R)  2  (3)

 

 

Republicans

 

Lamont (D)       4  (7)    
Lieberman (I)   74 (69)
Schlesinger (R) 19 (24)

 

 

Independents

 

Lamont (D)      53 (49)    
Lieberman (I)   36 (38)
Schlesinger (R)  6  (9)

 

 

Lieberman has shored up his support with Republicans, who clearly see him as one of their own. He has predictably lost ground among Democrats. But interestingly, he also lost the same amount of ground (six points) with independents.

 

Clearly, his whole "independent" schtick isn't playing well with real independent voters. I'll have more on this poll later today. The crosstabs are below the fold. Crosstabs for last year's poll can be found here. Unfortunately, there's no approve/disapprove numbers from last time since I forgot to ask for that data (I think it was my first poll ever commissioned).

 

CONNECTICUT POLL RESULTS - APRIL 2008

 

The Research 2000 Connecticut Poll was conducted from March 31 through April 2, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

 

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

 

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

 

 

 

SAMPLE FIGURE:

 

Men                 282  (48%)                
Women               318  (52%)
Democrats           211  (35%)      
Republicans         113  (19%)    
Independents/Other  276  (46%)

 

18-29               108  (18%)  
30-44               192  (32%)
45-59               174  (29%)  
60+                 126  (21%)

 


QUESTION: For whom did you vote for in the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?
                               
            LIEBERMAN  LAMONT  SCHLESINGER    

 

ALL            48%       43%        9%

 

MEN            51%       39%       10%
WOMEN          45%       47%        8%  
DEMOCRATS      33%       64%        3%
REPUBLICANS    69%       10%       21%  
INDEPENDENTS   51%       41%        8%

 

18-29          40%       54%        6%  
30-44          43%       48%        9%
45-59          53%       38%        9%  
60+            55%       34%       11%

 


QUESTION: If you could vote again for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?

 

              LAMONT  LIEBERMAN  SCHLESINGER  NOT SURE

 

ALL             51%       37%        7%        5%

 

MEN             47%       40%        9%        4%  
WOMEN           55%       34%        5%        6%  
DEMOCRATS       74%       19%        2%        5%  
REPUBLICANS      4%       74%       19%        3%
INDEPENDENTS    53%       36%        6%        5%

 

18-29           67%       27%        2%        4%  
30-44           55%       31%        8%        6%  
45-59           44%       44%        7%        5%  
60+             41%       46%        9%        4%

 


QUESTION: If John McCain selected Joe Lieberman to be his Vice Presidential running mate, would it make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or would it have no real affect on your vote?

 

               MORE      LESS     NO AFFECT        

 

ALL             18%       31%       51%

 

MEN             21%       27%       52%  
WOMEN           15%       35%       50%
DEMOCRATS        7%       41%       52%  
REPUBLICANS     43%       12%       45%
INDEPENDENTS    16%       32%       52%

 

18-29            6%       42%       52%                  
30-44           15%       35%       50%                  
45-59           22%       27%       51%                  
60+             27%       23%       50%                  

 


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Lieberman is doing as U.S. senator?

 

              APPROVE  DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE  

 

ALL             47%       40%       13%

 

MEN             52%       37%       11%  
WOMEN           42%       43%       15%
DEMOCRATS       40%       45%       15%  
REPUBLICANS     62%       32%        6%
INDEPENDENTS    46%       40%       14%

 

18-29           37%       52%       11%
30-44           45%       46%        9%  
45-59           51%       34%       15%
60+             52%       30%       18%

 


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

 

              APPROVE  DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE  

 

ALL             21%       78%        1%

 

MEN             24%       75%        1%  
WOMEN           18%       81%        1%
DEMOCRATS        5%       94%        1%  
REPUBLICANS     68%       31%        1%
INDEPENDENTS    14%       85%        1%

 

18-29           13%       87%        -
30-44           18%       81%        1%  
45-59           24%       75%        1%
60+             27%       72%        1%

 


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Dick Cheney is doing as Vice President?

 

              APPROVE  DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE  

 

ALL             15%       84%        1%

 

MEN             17%       82%        1%  
WOMEN           13%       86%        1%
DEMOCRATS        2%       97%        1%  
REPUBLICANS     60%       39%        1%
INDEPENDENTS     7%       92%        1%

 

18-29            4%       95%        1%
30-44           16%       83%        1%  
45-59           18%       81%        1%
60+             20%       79%        1%  

 
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one thing that's still frustrating (0.00 / 0)
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Lieberman is doing as U.S. senator?

             APPROVE  DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE  

ALL             47%       40%       13%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

             APPROVE  DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE  

ALL             21%       78%        1%

These numbers should be joined at the hip. The fact that they weren't in '06 was a huge part of why Lieberman managed to win. He danced around and blurred the Iraq issue, and McCain is now going to do the same.

The hero-worshipping establishment media is in the tank for McCain. If we (the blogosphere and progressives in general) don't define John McCain, it will make it a lot harder for our nominee to win the presidency, and also harder to win more seats in Congress. And Lieberman will continue thinking he's relevant (with dreams of secretary of state? Ewwww!) If we are successful, the tide will turn, and Lieberman will become a pimple on the ass of history. It's that simple.



"There's class warfare, all right, but it's my class, the rich class, that's making war, and we're winning." - Warren Buffet


Not too bad, really (0.00 / 0)
The rule of thumb is that an incumbent is in trouble if his approval rating is less than 50% going into the election year.  The fact that Lieberman is already below 50%, and that his disapproval rating is as high as 40% means that he's very unpopular.  I agree with your point that Lieberman has yet to be logically tied to Bush's disapproval.  But he's certainly unpopular.

[ Parent ]
right (0.00 / 0)
It'd be great if he was so broadly and deeply disliked that he could be ridden out of town on a rail, but we can afford to be magnanimous, and have him simply be unpopular enough to lose in his next election, four years hence.

[ Parent ]
Is it 2012 yet? n/t (0.00 / 0)


"There's class warfare, all right, but it's my class, the rich class, that's making war, and we're winning." - Warren Buffet

[ Parent ]
I can't wait, or perhaps 2010 will be the year (0.00 / 0)
It won't include the satisfaction of payback against Lieberman, but Ned could be annointed as Chris Dodd's successor.  Chris has mentioned that he might not run for re-election, and with Ned Lamont's strong work for Chris's presidential campaign, Ned has certainly earned strong consideration.  It's not clear that others will want to challenge Ned in light of two polls now showing that he'd win a rematch for senator with Lieberman.  

Mayor Malloy is still intent on taking the governorship, and Mayor DiStefano's dismal showing in the general could well eliminate him for a rematch.

So it could very well be Ned in oh ten.


[ Parent ]
 
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