Democratic National Committee Chair Howard
Dean's 50
State Strategy
is credited with helping
to shift state and federal elections
throughout the country to the side of the Democrats in the last
election. Dean seeks to revitalize
Democratic organizing at the grassroots level in every part
of the country, refusing to cede
any territory to the Republican party. Translating Dean's
successful
strategy to Connecticut would mean that
every Republican candidate is challenged by a Democrat in the general
election, and no legislative district or town is sacrificed to the GOP.
Connecticut new system of public campaign financing should
remove
the last legitimate barrier to strongly challenging Republican
incumbents in state legislative elections in 2008.
In 2006, voters from one
in six state legislative districts in Connecticut elected a Republican
who ran unopposed by any Democrat (see list below). This means that that most
Republicans elected to the General Assembly had no Democratic opposition
(33 of 57, or 58%) . In
contrast, only 28% of elected Democrats were unchallenged by a
Republican
(37 of 130). Connecticut is ranked only 22nd
in the
nation in the percentage of seats contested by both major
parties.
So while Connecticut Republicans raised only 71%
of the total funds raised by Democrats
in General Assembly elections in the last cycle, current GOP
legislators are twice as
likely to have won unchallenged by a Democrat.
Below, I discuss the free-ride Republicans, their regional
breakdown, and their vulnerability.
Certainly, a pessimist might submit, the Democratic powers-that-be must
have concluded upon full evaluation of the evidence that these
uncontested districts are hopelessly uncompetitive and dominated by a
hard-core Republican electorate. But even before campaign
finance
reform could help level the playing field, upstart Democrats
were
proving the conventional wisdom wrong last year, winning or running
competitive races in districts that had recently been abandoned by
their party.
Linda Schofield defeated Rep. Robert Heagney, unopposed in 2000
and 2002
Kim Fawcett defeated Rep. Cathy Tymniak, unopposed in 2000,
2002 and 2004
Ed Krumeich lost by only 132 votes to Rep. Claudia Powers, unopposed in 2000,
2002 and 2004
Derek Donnelly lost by only 229 votes to Rep. Ruth
Fahrbach, unopposed
in 2000, 2002 and 2004
Steve Berry lost by only 367 votes to Sen. Tom Herlihy, unopposed in 2000
Elissa Wright picked up the House seat vacated by Rep.
Lenny Winkler, unopposed
in 2002 and 2004
Tom Kehoe won the House seat vacated by Rep. Sonny Googins,
unopposed
in 2000
In several other elections, Democrats ran competitive races
in recently uncontested districts
No safe regions for the GOP
The unchallenged Republicans are heavily, though not exclusively,
located in Fairfield
and Litchfield counties. Indeed,
one-third of all state legislative seats in these counties are held
by Republicans who ran unopposed by Democrats in 2006.
But the days when these vast regions could
be considered impregnable GOP strongholds are over.
43% of towns in these counties voted
for Kerry for President.
Registered Democrats outnumber
Republicans
in Fairfield County (31% vs. 27%) and nearly match
the GOP in
Litchfield County (27% vs. 28%). In 2006, newly registered
Democrats in Litchfield County outnumbered
new Republicans by a 2 to 1 margin.
Last year, Fairfield County Democrats like William
Tong, Jason
Bartlett,
Kim Fawcett, and Tom Christiano defied expectations by
winning former Republican House seats.
In Senate elections, Steve
Berry, Chris Jones, and Craig Schiavone ran very competitive races
against Republicans in these two counties.
Another grouping of untouched Republicans is in the Waterbury,
Naugutuck Valley and New Haven areas: D'Amelio, Noujaim,
Labriola,
Greene and Fasano. In six of the ten cities and towns
represented
by these legislators, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by
substantial margins. Other campaign-free Republicans are
spread
around the state: Guglielmo in
the northeast corner, Bacchiochi in northern CT,
Witkos in the suburbs west of Hartford, and Guiliano
in the
southeast. (Witkos upset a progressive Democratic incumbent,
Jessie Stratton, by only 38 votes in 2002.)
A 187-District Strategy
Suggestions on how to advocate for a 187-district, no free-ride
strategy (particularly if you live near a Republican-held district):
Talk to progressive leaders, activists, and elected
officials about potential candidates for office.
Ask progressives to consider running.
Encourage members of your Democratic town committee
(DTC) and your
representatives on the State Central
Committee to work for a
187-district challenge to Republicans, particularly with the
implementation of
public financing.
Spread the word widely (ala CTKeith and TrueBlueCT) that
these
legislators can and should be challenged. Share the gospel of
public
financing.
Adopt a Republican incumbent. Document his or her
behavior
and track record here at MLN. Videotape his or her public
appearances.
If you live near a Republican district, tell DTC members
there
that you'll help and bring friends if they recruit a strong,
progressive candidate.
Attend campaign trainings sponsored by the State Dems or
other organizations (here's one
in June).
Help gather qualifying contributions and signatures for
Democratic challengers.
Update
(5/27/06): Added Sen. DeLuca to list of unopposed and updated
stats. ("Official" results from Secretary of State's office
had a typo and named a non-existent Democratic opponent.)
Democratic National Committee Chair Howard
Dean's 
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