Down 10 in the new Q-Poll - DO NOT PANIC

Is the trend still the friend? (0.00 / 0)

I see that Lieberman is at 49 according to Quinnipiac, which is under 50. Still in the danger zone, still slightly falling.

Why is it that Quinnipiac has Joe higher than the other surveys? It seems like it has bounced around more, even in the primaries.

Remember likely voter models can be wrong. If GOP and unaffiliated turnout is low, and we manage to get out enough Dems that support Ned, the poll numbers won't matter at all. Just as in the primary, the hearts and guts of the supporters are what matter and what will really make this work.

But bottom line, yes, redouble our efforts, spend some time off the blog and on the phone or on the street.

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by: OrangeTownBlueDem @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 06:29:47 AM CDT

Dumb title (0.00 / 0)

The numbers of any of these polls do not matter, even the close ones. Trends matter.

Lieberman cheerleader Doug Schwartz had this to say:

"Ned Lamont has lost momentum. He's gained only two points in six weeks. He's going to have to do something different in the next six weeks or Sen. Joseph Lieberman stays in for another six years," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D. "Lamont wins among those who say Iraq is the most important issue to their vote, but that is only 35 percent of the electorate. Lieberman wins on all the other issues voters say matter most to them, including terrorism and the economy."

Might as well be campaign scripted, and probably is.

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by: Scarce @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 07:23:20 AM CDT

Dumb title? (0.00 / 0)

I thought it was kind of witty. Obviously not a fan of the Hitchhiker's Guide.

Trends do matter and the trend of this poll actually seems kind of split.  Ned's numbers are down from August but so are Joe's.  I agree that its too early for these polls to matter and that was the point of the title.

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by: amarko55 @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 07:28:12 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

My comment from that last Q poll 8/17 (4.00 / 1)

[[How to turn this around (4.00 / 1) 
Ned needs to make sure that the 25% of voters who don't know enough about him hear a positive moderate message of change.  He needs to understand why some independents have an unfavorable view of him and focus on getting that number down. He needs to talk about how Metro-North doesn't get its fair share of homeland security money.  He needs to talk about the deficit.  He needs to talk about the corrupting influence of lobbyist money.  Whenever some idiot reporter brings up his net worth, he needs to talk about how Joe has outspent him and how 80+% of Joe's money comes from out of state. He also should expect that Joe will try to break the world record in the backstroke backing away from his previous statements in Iraq.
This is going to be very tough because the Republicans are running a guy who polls worse than a canned ham. National democrats should be talking about the "split" in the party as in "we are splitting 96% of the vote!" hoping they might shame some Republicans into actually supporting their guy.]]

I would update that by saying the "no show Joe" stuff was a good idea, but we need something like that every week until the election.

The vast majority of Americans are unhappy with Congress and want change.  We have to hit Joe "the lobbyist's friend" next! I would return to the "Rumsfeld must stay/Rumsfeld must go" flip-flop, I doubt Rumsfeld's dog likes him anymore, never mind the voters.

Finally I think we need to explain that "bipartisanship and compromise" only mean something when people with opposing viewpoints have power and must negotiate.  George W. Bush has used Joe Lieberman to advance his right wing agenda while conceding nothing to those of us who care about regular working Americans!  It's no secret that the White House is supporting Joe over the Republican candidate, because he's their favorite sucker.

We can do this.  The only poll that counts is in November.

It's Morning in America. Too bad Reagan's not here to see it. - Me

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by: roguetrader2000 @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 07:35:25 AM CDT

Don't Panic Yet (0.00 / 0)

This WSJ Poll has your guy within the margin of error (45.8%-44%). It's kind of a lousy poll, though, and he's still behind.

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by: genghis conn @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 07:40:23 AM CDT

Don't panic? (0.00 / 0)

This is clearly not good news, no matter how one spins it. 6 weeks until the election...

"Inconvenient truths do not go away just because they are not seen." -Al Gore

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by: PsiFighter37 @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 07:49:52 AM CDT

Excellent discussion on LamontBlog (0.00 / 0)

TParty does a wonderful job of finding the trends and the good news in this poll:

here

We're still moving in the right direction but we all need to work harder.

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by: OrangeTownBlueDem @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 07:57:03 AM CDT

It's not an excellent discussion. (0.00 / 0)

That's a pro-Lamont blog. It doesn't really contain opposing voices.

Listen, I sympathize with you a lot. You want to see the best in the situation. We all do. It all reminds me of when I was living in California. I lived in this house where all the glass and chinaware was on the top shelf. I said to them, "There are earthquakes here. Shouldn't you take that down and put it on the bottom shelf?"

They all took on this weird, only-in-California combination of happy-Disney-bitchy attitude, and were like, "but they look better up there!" "don't worry, they all have very stable bases" "the shelf will rock along with the house and the glasses won't fall down", and God knows I don't even remember the other excuses.

And then, we had a little earthquake. And the chinaware fell and broke.

5 years in California and I never figured out how to slap those lemmings silly in the right way that they actually get a realistic handle on the fact that they are heading off a cliff.

If Lamont had won this poll by 10 points, we'd all be jumping for joy... and I doubt anyone would be saying, "oh, Doug Schwartz is skewing the numbers."

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by: bluestater @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 10:05:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

YOU KNOW HOW NED WILL WIN.... (4.00 / 6)

by getting in touch with the voters!!! I am a volunteer in the Norwalk office and I encourage any one to spend whatever time you can by getting in touch with the nearest Lamont Office in your area!  The locations can be found on the Ned Lamont offical site by clicking on the "contact us" link!

My experience with the Norwalk office has been really fun staffed by great people and wonderful volunteers who are friendly and eager to make sure Ned wins in November...and everyone sure makes you feel welcomed!!! 

AND DON'T FORGET to particpate in the "family, friends and neighbors" program!  It's easy and it will make a HUGE difference! Here's the link: http://www.familyfri...

BTW, my personal experience in calling the "undecided" voters I find a lot of them are just that, undecided!  So I believe there's plenty of room out there to turn these numbers around but WE NEED YOU TO DO IT!!!  So how about it, the time you spend reading and commenting on the blogs, you could be spending connecting with the voters, or participating on-line with the "family, friends and neighbors" program!

THAT'S HOW NED WILL WIN!!!!!!!!!!!

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by: Harriet @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 08:33:46 AM CDT

Nicely put (0.00 / 0)

May a thousand Harriet's bloom.

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by: BranfordBoy @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 12:30:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The Q-poll takes about 2 weeks to do, so their results are about 1-2 weeks old (0.00 / 0)

by the time it gets published.

Let's remember, Lamont had to restaff his campaign and that was completed by Sept 9.  We just started phone banking in Northeast CT this week.  Other areas started 1-2 weeks ago and since all the other polls show this race a dead-heat right now, I say that the Q-poll is a bit off, but the trend line is still in favor of Lamont.

Another factor, Indies are more inclined to not pay attention to politics until at most 10 days out from the election, and most will make their decision a few days from election day.

Yes there are some Democrats who will vote for Lieberman.  Some are in my town's DTC.  And I heard that a chair of a town near mine is supporting Lieberman.  I'm sure a few others are as well.  This is unfortunate, but Lamont and us need to appeal to Indies.  We can win this election with Indy support.

And there are some former Lieberman supporters, still in shock that Lieberman lost the Democratic primary, who do not support what Lieberman is doing and with gentle persuasion will vote for Lamont on Nov. 7.

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by: Larkspur @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 08:58:29 AM CDT

No they're not. (0.00 / 0)

The poll is dated Sept 21-25.

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by: bluestater @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 09:39:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Except that people are responding to what they know or don't know (0.00 / 0)

from the last couple weeks or so.  Political junkies are up-to-date, but most folks are a week or two behind the times and some in my DTC are about a month or two behind the times concerning national issues.

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by: Larkspur @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 10:13:56 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

cripes already (0.00 / 0)

the survey was 1,100 people! you guys know how many dems voted in the primary right? sheesh stupid polls! however this should light a fire under Neds ass. He should goto the Danbury mall and the flea market up in New Mil.

Also Ned needs to point at Lieberman and call him out during the debate, seriously he needs to interrupt him and do whatever it takes to pin his ass to the liess and deciet of the bush failed policy everywhere.

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by: shaolinmonk @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 10:46:49 AM CDT

Phone-banking is very therapeutic (4.00 / 2)

I recommend phone-banking as a way to handle any poll problems. I just did two hours down at the New Haven office (with at least a dozen others doing the same thing over the noon hour).

Phone-banking is a chance to tell your story to an undecided. What more could you want? Post here and be read only by the already-converted, or make an actual convert yourself? Change the polls one person at a time. Tell your story over and over.

It makes you feel good. You get the buzz of making progress while reasserting your own belief in the cause.

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by: OrangeTownBlueDem @ Thu Sep 28, 2006 at 13:50:09 PM CDT

As rawstory reports (0.00 / 0)

Zogby poll: Lieberman leads Lamont by only two points, well within 'margin of error'

http://www.rawstory....

The Q's numbers are questionable...

and considering the promotion given Lieberman, it's not hard to see why they released on Thursday when Zogby and others are going to release before the weekend...


The question is not what you are, we already determined that, we are now negotiating price.
electrealdemocrats.com Online since 3/07 -- TimetogoJoe.com Online s

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by: Met00 @ Fri Sep 29, 2006 at 03:34:43 AM CDT