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Another Rasmussen 45 (CFL) 43 (D)

by: Scarce

Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 08:33:48 AM EDT

Details just filtering in, as it's only available by subscription. This is exactly the same as late August. One wonders if they called the same people.
Scarce :: Another Rasmussen 45 (CFL) 43 (D)
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We're not making progress. (0.00 / 0)
Still Ned is not ahead. We've got to get better.

Acually no (0.00 / 0)
Lieberman's lead is entirely due to the collapse of Schlesinger's support. In July Rasmussen had it at 40-40 with 13% to Alan Schlesinger. Now he may be getting 4-6%.

All the polling may be somewhat worthless anyway, the trends more valuable than the actual numbers any one candidate has. If, as expected, some republicans find it simply unpalatable to pull the lever for Lieberman and vote for the real-- rather than the pseudo-republican-- that would render all these polls meaningless.

[ Parent ]
You're missing the big picture, Scarce. (0.00 / 0)
Ned should be way ahead right now.

Remember the cross-tabs at the SUSA poll? Ned's losing among independents -- and even 35% of Democrats.  You can argue that the SUSA poll's not credible. Fine. Still, he should be raking in the independents, because they agree with his ideas. And Joe is an a-hole.

But they're trending Lieberman, for a number of reasons which I have already outlined (and you read), most of all because they actually think Joe is an independent thinker.

If Ned were winning independents, Rasmussen's numbers would be at around 55-35-5.

[ Parent ]
And if you want to argue trends... (0.00 / 0)
...the trend has not changed.

[ Parent ]
How? (4.00 / 1)
"should be way ahead.."

Lieberman is getting 75-80% of republican voters by some estimates, and nearly 60% of unaffiliated. By what new math do you suppose Ned Lamont should be "way" ahead facing that reality?

Yeah, Joe's trends are great.

[ Parent ]
That's the point. (0.00 / 0)
Joe should not be getting 60% of unaffiliateds. Nor should he be getting 75-80% of Republicans, but many of them are idiots so what are you gonna do.

Ned should be getting 75% of affiliates and 90% of Democrats. That would place us at about 35+20 = 55%. If he's not, that means the campaign is not appealing properly to those consituencies.

Those graphics you've place are old. The trends have now flattened out.

[ Parent ]
obviously, some typos (0.00 / 0)
affiliates = unaffiliateds
place = placed

I haven't had my coffee yet.

[ Parent ]
As someone who (4.00 / 1)
spent last night phonebanking unaffiliated voters, I can tell you that THEY HAVEN'T DECIDED YET. In fact, they haven't even begun THINKING about it yet. Easily 90% of the people I reached told me that.

[ Parent ]
Those are completely unrealistic numbers (4.00 / 1)
Ned and his campaign have been entirely realistic and made pragmatic decisions throughout. I have every confidence that will continue.

[ Parent ]
But -- (4.00 / 2)
How long did it take Dems to turn away from Lieberman during the primary?

It did not happen overnight.

The Indies are ultimately persuadable. I don't understand why people are screaming here that the race should have been over yesterday.

This is a marathon, folks. If Ned was out there throwing everything at the wall right now, he'd look pretty bad.

Slow and steady, baby -- just not *too* slow and *too* steady.

I think we're okay. The Indies will start taking a close look soon, and I think they'll like what they see in Ned.

[ Parent ]
Will you please wait... (4.00 / 2)
For the media campaign to begin?

Of course Lieberman is out to an early lead. If his numbers hadn't shown that, he never would have made the jump.

Has it dawned on you that Lamont/Swan/Hillsman haven't run one ad against Joe in the general, yet you continue squawking about how the sky is supposedly falling.

[ Parent ]
No way. (0.00 / 0)
We shouldn't stop squawking until we're winning.

Even then we should squawk. And it's not the media campaign I'm squawking about. It's rapid response/campaign organization/Ned's TV presence.

When I was playing ball in school, my dad squwaked at me after every game. Even when I scored. And I'm glad he did. I'm also glad that the audience cheered.

November 9th, I promise I'll stop squawking. Unless we lose.

[ Parent ]
This poll (4.00 / 1)
is great news for Ned. Absolutely fantastic. Joe needed to put Ned away at the start, and he didn't.

Now Ned will have Dem backing and the Dem GOTV/ground operation. Lieberman ain't got nothin'.

[ Parent ]
Good news, not great news (0.00 / 0)
The good part is that Lieberman's "unity" launch didn't get him anything more than he already had. Schlesinger's collapse is the biggest move in the polls.

Now that Ned is back in the game and on the air, we have to hope that will have some impact.

I'm getting nervous about the Lieberman appeal to independents. Even though it's entirely false, on the air it looks like Lieberman has an advantage over Lamont. We've got to counter that.

Lobbyists for Lieberman ad, anyone? Show a sea of briefcase- toting torsos and legs walking up marble steps. "63 lobbyists for every member of Congress." The crowd storms down the hallway, into a Senate office. The briefcases empty dollars onto a desk. "For too long the special interests have given millions of dollars to our elected officials, and gotten billions of taxpayer money in return. Energy bill giveaways to the oil companies. Bankruptcy rules that hurt real working families. And no bid contracts that deliver nothing."  Another faceless suit - clearly the Senator- sits at the desk and touches the money.

"That's got to change. Ned Lamont isn't taking special interest PAC money. Joe Lieberman has taken millions from the special interests. 90% of his money comes from sources outside of Connecticut. Whose Senator is he?"

That's one way to counter Lieberman's appeal to independents - show them his real constituency is the special interests and the lobbyists.

Perfect! (0.00 / 0)
Joe Lieberman has used Ned's self-financing against him.  The people of CT need to know that Joe has always had more cash and that it comes from people buying access, if not influence.

Ned is still the underdog here, which is OK on 9/15.  I don't think we need to be ahead until 10/25 or so. Remember Joe's "comeback" before the primary, a long, slow steady erosion of support is all we need.

PS.  If we ran that ad, some right-wingnut would call it anti-Semitic.

It's Morning in America. Too bad Reagan's not here to see it. - Me

[ Parent ]
This is good news considering that the Lamont campaing had to restructure (4.00 / 1)
after the primary and Lieberman has been on the airwaves since the primary.  Shows that Lieberman's efforts have him basically treading water.  Now that Lamont is back in the game  in full force, the polls should rise for him.  It will take a couple weeks before Lamont's new efforts are registered in the polls.

That sounds right to me (4.00 / 2)
I like the treading water idea.  Also, it may be dangerous for Ned to peak too soon?

I'd hope that the Iraq stance would hit home with the same ratio for CT unaffiliateds as it does for the country as a whole.

I've re-read Ned's early interviews, and I have to think that if he can re-air the early commercials, make new ones based on his opnions of the bankruptcy bill, corporate accountability, etc, he'd make gains with Dems and not-Dems.

Just a guess.

[ Parent ]
This is true. (4.00 / 1)
We all lived through Howard Dean and we know the dangers of peaking too soon.

However, I'm also worried that Swan et. al. are trying too hard to prevent peaking too soon, that they'll end up not peaking at all.

[ Parent ]
I don't think Swan is doing that (4.00 / 2)
The staffing issue was paramount and now that it has been solved, it's just a matter of executing the game plan. 

[ Parent ]
The Campaign is Just Beginning (4.00 / 2)
I don't think that I (or the rest of you..) fully appreciated this:

After the primary, Ned Lamont had to dramatically change and scale up his campaign.  This is a huge task that is fraught with peril, and only the best campaigns can successfully accomplish this feat.

Post-primary August, into September, was probably the most difficult and challenging period for the Lamont campaign so far.  But they had to do this re-tooling to compete in the general election, and it should be done now.

You may have noticed that Lamont has had a fairly low profile for the last month, and even few big campaign events until this week.  I think that we'll see the Lamont campaign is something really special now.

It's great news that the Rasmussen poll is a tossup.  Things could be much worse, given how much energy and time the Lamont campaign had to devote to scaling up for November.

I totally agree (4.00 / 2)
I have confidence in Ned and his team, and confidence that the REAL Joe Lieberman will be exposed.

The "pivot" in Ned's campaign is taking place as we speak, and we will see a surge of well-timed activity going forward.

Note the word "well-timed": we can't expect Ned to throw everything at the wall right now, as many here seem to be advocating (Where's Kerry? Where's Feingold? Why aren't there more ads? That ad didn't work, etc...). This is going to be an exercise in building momentum over the duration of the campaign. Let's watch it unfold, and contribute everything we can along the way.

And -- let's have fun again! :)

[ Parent ]
Weicker is the KEY to independents (4.00 / 1)
Need to emphasise Lamont/Weicker and Bush/Lieberman.

And I'm still waiting for that Friends ad to be played.  I want to see Ann Coulter endorsing Joe Lieberman in a TV ad.

Joe Lieberman and George Bush believe that our govt should cut and run on capturing Osama Bin Laden so that Bush and the neocons could invade Iraq. Despite no Wmds and no links to 9/11, Lieberman supports that decision.

When do people fill their oil tanks up? (4.00 / 1)
About the time that people fill their oil tanks for the first time before winter would be a great time to hammer Joe for being the only New England Senator to vote for the Bush-Cheney Energy Bill. 

Another good time to hammer Joe will be when the financial reports for the 3rd quarter come out.  How much did ExxonMobil make?  How about the pharmaceuticals?  Bread and butter issues will go a long way with people who plan to vote, but don't follow it with the same intensity that we do.

Ned Should Get Some Republicans, (4.00 / 1)
too.  I would guess that CT Republicans include many who are put off by the whackjob, Christian social issues, the messianic, crusading foreign policy, and runaway Federal spending.  Since Ned is a man who has made a lot of money, and Republicans basically care only about that, he should have credibilityt there.  And he is making the right noises about earmarks, etc.  The moderate CT Republican should find a lot to like in Ned.

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