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My Left Nutmeg

Post-Debate Push Polling?

by: BranfordBoy

Wed Jul 12, 2006 at 11:42:24 AM EDT


I received a report of another polling effort by Western Research in Utah, from someone who wishes to remain anonymous. My correspondent calls it a "push poll." I'm not sure I'd go that far. I always think of push polling as asking questions like, "Would you be more or less likely to vote for Candidate X knowing that he engages in satanic rituals involving cute little kittens?"

This poll, which as described seems pretty clearly a Lieberman-inspired exercise, asks about attitudes, which I think is fair game.

At any rate, read the report below the fold and make up your own mind. And please feel free to report any calls you've received from pollsters in the comments.

BranfordBoy :: Post-Debate Push Polling?
Today, I received my first recognizable Push Poll.  The woman, speaking with
an unclear accent said she was calling on behalf of Western Research in
Orem, Utah.  Recognizing the name, from discussions on the blogs about
Lieberman push-polling, I decided to follow along closely.

First, they asked about if I was registered, if I was a Democrat, if I voted
in previous primaries, and how likely I was to vote in the August primary.
I explained that I was a registered Democrat who was very likely to vote in
the primary.

They asked what sort of job I thought Lieberman was doing and told them I
thought he was doing a very poor job.  They then asked,, on a scale of 0 to
100 what I thought of George Bush, Chris Dodd, Ned Lamont, and Joe
Lieberman.  I gave Bush and Lieberman both 0, Dodd 75 and Ned Lamont 100.

They asked about the Gubernatorial primary and I said I was undecided.  They
asked which way I was leaning, and I again said undecided.

They went on to the Senatorial primary and I told them I was voting for
Lamont.  They asked how certain I was and I said I was very certain.

Next they moved on to phrases about the candidates.  I was trying to type
and answer at the same time, and there was background noise here, so I didn’
t get all of them.  They wanted to know who I associated with the following
phrases:

Can’t count on him.  (Lieberman)
True Democrat (Lamont)
Out of step with ordinary people (Lieberman)
Trustworthy (Lamont)
Too close to Bush (Lieberman)

They went on to talk about the debate.  Were you aware of it?  Did you watch
it?  Did you watch all of it? (I watched all of it)

Did it make you feel more or less favorable to Lieberman?  (much less
favorable)

Did it make you feel more or less favorable to Lamont? (much more favorable)

They asked if it made me more or likely to support one candidate or the
other and I responded much more likely to support Lamont.

With all of this out of the way, they went on to their push polling:

Do the following questions make you feel a little less, more much less
comfortable with Ned Lamont:

He refuses to release his tax information.  At this point, I told the
pollster that the statement was incorrect, and that she was acting
unethically by repeating it.  She asked the question and I told her it made
me feel much less comfortable with Joe Lieberman that people would be
repeating such false information.

She went on to ask about how Ned Lamont’s claim that he would outlaw all
earmarks made me feel.  I repeated that this was false information and it
made me much less comfortable with Joe Lieberman.  I urged her to stop
repeating false information.

Perhaps I shouldn’t have been so strident, so I could have heard more of the
false information that they are spreading.  However, based on this, she
moved on to final demographics, college education, age, union membership,
religion, ethnicity and income level.

Tags: , , (All Tags)
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Fascinating (0.00 / 0)
I'm not convinced that this is a push poll.  It's clearly a poll to test out the messages that the Lieberman campaign is going to use in the next few weeks, though.

What really pisses me off about the repeated lie that Lamont has refused to release his tax returns is that the Hartford Courant article on July 9 said that Joe Lieberman hadn't released them yet, either!!!! 


as with the last one (4.00 / 1)
This isn't a push poll. It's testing negative messages as part of a legitimate poll.

A push poll lasts a minute, has very few questions, and pushes out new negative information about a candidate.


[ Parent ]
To anonymous correspondent... (0.00 / 0)
...Hey, anonymous:

Thanks for taking the time to transcribe all this and get the word out.  It's very much appreciated!

And speaking of "Anonymous", Joe Klein was at an event with Lamont last night in Stamford.


Earmarks (0.00 / 0)
It is my impression that Ned would work to outlaw Joe's earmarks that are great for connecticut.  Do I have the wrong impression?

Earmarks (0.00 / 0)
I'm paraphrasing from memory, but I believe Ned said during the debate that he thought ALL earmarks were wrong, and should be illegal, and that if a project was good for a state it should be able to pass muster and be passed through the regular legislative process. Correct me if I'm wrong, anyone!

And I happen to agree with him. Earmarks play a huge role in corrupting the political process.


[ Parent ]
That's my understanding as well (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Transcript (0.00 / 0)
LIEBERMAN: Joanne, he hasn't answered the question. I take it that he is saying he will not release the his returns. I think that's an insult to the public's right to know. I want to say briefly about that bill, that transportation bill, of course, we were all against the bridge to nowhere. But there are earmarks that are good.

Is he against the earmarks I put in the bill for $50 million to decrease congestion along I-95, or the money that I got for intermodal transportation centers at New Haven, Bridgeport, Hartford and Stamford, or the money for ferry service from Bridgeport -- New Haven and Stamford to take cars off of I-95? Those are good earmarks which I gather he'll be against.

NESTI: Thirty seconds, Mr. Lamont, please, if you'd like to respond to that.

LAMONT: Look, you want to boast about how many earmarks you bring to the state of Connecticut? Alaska gets 10 times what we do. We're not doing very well on that front. But more importantly, I think we should outlaw these earmarks.

(CROSSTALK)

LAMONT: Hear me out, sir. I think we should outlaw these earmarks. I think they corrupt the political process. I think they are written by lobbyists and they're wrong.

LIEBERMAN: Try to explain that to the (inaudible).

LAMONT: I think these things should go through the congressional process. Sir, you have been there for 18 years. You support the earmarks, you work with the lobbyists, and that's what needs to be changed.

LIEBERMAN: The earmarks are great for Connecticut.


[ Parent ]
Thanks! (0.00 / 0)
for looking that up.

[ Parent ]
Massachusetts Dem here.... (0.00 / 0)
wondering if there are any published polling data on how Lamont is doing?  I also left this at ConnecticbutBlog, so an answer in either place would be fine.  I checked around, but couldn't find anything.  Thanks.

There is but it's suspect (0.00 / 0)
Both were released earlier last month.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11362.xml?ReleaseID=922

..had Lieberman at 55-40 among a dubious likely voter model.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/June%202006/ConnecticutPrimary.htm

..was even worse, although it had Lieberman leading 46-40. I say worse, although I support Ned Lamont, because the poll was badly done and should not even have been released.

I have no faith that either poll was reflective of the real situation at hand.

Lieberman is preparing to run as an Independent. That alone speaks volumes.


[ Parent ]
Thanks! (0.00 / 0)
Yes, I agree that Lieberman is totally freaked out.  Let's hope he's also shopping for a new job while forming his  new party.

[ Parent ]
about surveys and polls (0.00 / 0)
Years ago, I did some consulting on survey analysis and design.

The folks who call for the polls probably don't care how you answer, as long as it matches a choice on the forms they're filling out.

Regardless of if they're paid for each completed survey, or by the hour, the number of completed surveys they get will impact the income or performance ratings of the person making the call.

Answers that can't be used on the form will be ignored - and may invalidate your entire survey, eliminating any input you've given.


Interesting (4.00 / 1)
It appears it's not the first time this company has been used. 

See:

http://www.insidepolitics.org/heard/heard062102.html


[ Parent ]
Sue (0.00 / 0)
She could of meant Mountain West Research Center. These are the same people Joe used before.

Remember, she wrote all of this down from memory so she could of missed some words.

http://www.mwrcenter.com/


[ Parent ]
Outsourcing (0.00 / 0)
Somewhere out there when this first burst of polling from the group came up (two weeks ago now?) someone wrote that the call centers for this company were outsourced abroad.  Anyone have details on this?

It would be delicious if Lieberman were outsourcing his polling.


[ Parent ]
The caller I got in the pre-debate poll sounded Asian Indian (0.00 / 0)
Mountain West Research Center http://www.mwrcenter.com/ was the company that did the polling.  Someone would have to do research on them to find out if they outsource the callers to India. 

[ Parent ]
Western Wats of Orem , Utah and your rights as poll respondents (0.00 / 0)
  Ask for the identification of the research firm and its affiliation right off the bat. You are entitled.
  Western Wats, a large research survey firm of Orem, Utah, is a member of various trade associations that uphold ethical survey research  practices.  One such trade association, Casro, lists in its preamble these key sentences :
Respondents should be:
a.  willing participants in survey research;
b. appropriately informed about the survey’s intentions and how their personal information and survey responses will be used and protected

  Friendly tip: The lifeblood of reputable polling firms are people willing to respond to polls, and for dissatisfied respondents, there are avenues you can use to complain.


Anonymous responds (4.00 / 1)
The person who reported on the poll, got in touch with some more comments. here they are (I have edited out some contact info):

One of my clients is a major market research firm, which is part of the
reason I need remain anonymous.  Most market research firms are members of
the Council of American Research Organizations, or CASRO.  It is worth
noting that Western Wats of Orem UT is a member of CASRO.  ....  I do not know for sure that Western Wats was
the firm that contacted me, but it is the most likely scenario.

  The reason I question the ethics of the research, and referred to it as a
push poll is that the question about tax returns was factually incorrect and
provided only two options.  I do not recall the verbiage exactly, but the
gist was ‘Does that fact that Ned Lamont refuses to release his tax returns
make you slightly less supportive of Ned Lamont or significantly less
supportive of Ned Lamont?’

  Research firms should not be presenting false information as fact.
Research firms should not be providing incomplete set of options in
responses.  The presentation of the question made it appear that the goal in
asking the question was not gather information but to persuade people being
asked the question of a specific viewpoint.  This is push polling.  This is
unethical.  This violates the guidelines of CASRO.

  Granted, it may be that the framing of the question has not from an
unethical attempt to convince respondents of a specific viewpoint and simply
reflected incompetence in creating a poll.  Either way, it reflects very
negatively on the research firm, as well as on, in my opinion, the Lieberman
campaign.

Perhaps my experience was unique, because of my background in dealing with
major market research firms.  It is because of this that I hope members of
the MLN community will listen closely to any polls that they receive.



 
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