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PELTO: " ''Malloy sees vindication in 2012 election results' - Really?"

by: ctblogger

Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 07:50:00 AM EST


Cross post from Jon Pelto's "Wait What?"

The shift to the 2014 gubernatorial campaign kicked into gear even before the 2012 candidates had given their acceptance and concession speeches last week.

As the polls closed this year, Chairwoman of the Connecticut Democratic Party wrote, "Now that voters have spoken, here's what we know - Governor Malloy wins, the Republicans lose, and the people of Connecticut win,"

Lt. Governor Nancy Wyman introduced Malloy by saying, "The one constant in all the turmoil that all the people of Connecticut has endured is the rock steady command of their governor."

The CT Mirror, CTNewjunkie and other media outlets ran stories about the Governor and the Republicans trying to out-do each other with arguments about what this year's election results mean for Governor Malloy's expected attempt to seek a second term.

And, as is their style, Malloy and his inner circle mocked the Republican legislative leadership.

The CTMirror led the discussion with a story entitled, "Malloy sees vindication in 2012 election results"

The fact is, Governor Malloy's post-election comments were a reminder that he and his political operatives have never left campaign mode and aren't about to change that strategy as they focus on the 2014 election cycle.

Speaking to the media last Thursday, Malloy reiterated his vow to, "balance the next budget without new taxes."  No new taxes, despite the fact that although the Malloy Administration claimed the state deficit was only $60 million in the days before the election, by Friday after the election, they admitted that the actual deficit was closer to $300 million and growing.

So what did the 2012 election really reveal about the 2014 gubernatorial campaign?

Every election signals, to some degree or another, what the electorate is thinking, but to suggest that these results are good news for Governor Malloy or that they vindicate his performance is, as the saying goes, a bit optimistic.

According to all the available polling information around the country, Governor Malloy remains the least popular Democratic governor in the nation.

Here are the facts;

There is more below the fold...

ctblogger :: PELTO: " ''Malloy sees vindication in 2012 election results' - Really?"
President Obama got about 58% of the vote in Connecticut.

In its last public opinion survey in late October, the Quinnipiac poll had the President beating Romney 55 to 41 percent with 4 percent saying that they didn't know who they'd be voting for this year.  Extrapolate out the people who said "don't know" and the Q-Poll hit the mark when compared to the actual results.  It was also very close with the Murphy vs. McMahon race.

So what did it take for Obama to get 58 percent of the vote on Election Day 2012?

The President's favorable "job performance" rating with Connecticut voters was 56 percent.

Obama's favorable rating among Democrats was a stunning 92 percent, and he even had a 50 - 48 percent favorable rating with the all-important, Republican leaning, unaffiliated (independent) voters.

However, while Connecticut voters had a very positive opinion of President Obama's job performance, they only give Governor Malloy an overall positive job performance rating of 45 percent.

More to the point, Malloy's favorable number among Democrats was only 66 percent, a stunning 26 percentage points below the President's rating.

And in a state in which a state-wide Democratic candidate cannot win without a good portion of the independent or unaffiliated voters, only 39 percent of unaffiliated voters give Governor Malloy a favorable job performance rating.

It is only November 2012, there is still time, but the last thing the Malloy Administration should want is for the media, or anyone else, to be looking into the 2012 numbers for guidance about 2014.

In fact, the one conclusion the leaps out, is the data reveals that Malloy's low job rating among Democrats, and especially among women, is so low that it bolsters the notion that if someone chose to challenge Malloy for the Democratic nomination, it most certainly wouldn't be a cakewalk for the incumbent.

Take for example, the depth of feeling among those who, at least, say they have a favorable opinion of the job Malloy is doing as Governor.

Of the 92 percent of Democrats who approve of the job President Obama is doing, seven in ten (69 percent) of those Democrats say they STRONLGY APPROVE of the job Obama is doing.

Of those same Democrats, less than 4 in 10 (38 percent) say that they STRONGLY APPROVE of the job Governor Malloy is doing.

The polling data reveals that Connecticut's Democrats do not strongly support the incumbent Democratic Governor.  This situation is reiterated by the news that 1 in 5 Democrats actually disapprove of the Governor's job performance.

As bad as the news is for a potential Democratic Primary, the news for Malloy is even worse when it comes to a potential General Election match-up.

While a quarter of all unaffiliated voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job President Obama is doing, a breathtakingly insignificant 8 percent of unaffiliated voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job Malloy is doing.

Equally troubling is that where 41 percent of all women voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job the President has been doing, only 16 percent of all women voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job Malloy is doing.

One thing is clear is that Malloy and the State Republicans were engaged in so much political spin about what the 2012 election meant for the 2014 race last week, that they both lost contact with reality and the truth.

Cut through all the bull, and the truth is that the Malloy and his political operation should be extremely worried about this year's election results.  When one in five Democratic voters has a negative opinion of Malloy's job performance, it is definitely time to worry about the level of support among the Democratic base.   This should come as no surprise to Malloy's people, considering the way he has treated state employees, teachers and other core Democratic constituencies.

However, that said, it is premature to say too much about 2014 considering Governor Malloy still has the 2013 Legislative Session to rebuild his level of support among the Democratic base - or further undermine their level of support - as he moves toward the 2014 election cycle.

[...]

You can find the CTMirror story here: http://www.ctmirror.org/story/... and the CT Newsjunkie story here: http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/ct...

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