|President Obama got about 58% of the vote in Connecticut.
In its last public opinion survey in late October, the Quinnipiac poll had the President beating Romney 55 to 41 percent with 4 percent saying that they didn't know who they'd be voting for this year. Extrapolate out the people who said "don't know" and the Q-Poll hit the mark when compared to the actual results. It was also very close with the Murphy vs. McMahon race.
So what did it take for Obama to get 58 percent of the vote on Election Day 2012?
The President's favorable "job performance" rating with Connecticut voters was 56 percent.
Obama's favorable rating among Democrats was a stunning 92 percent, and he even had a 50 - 48 percent favorable rating with the all-important, Republican leaning, unaffiliated (independent) voters.
However, while Connecticut voters had a very positive opinion of President Obama's job performance, they only give Governor Malloy an overall positive job performance rating of 45 percent.
More to the point, Malloy's favorable number among Democrats was only 66 percent, a stunning 26 percentage points below the President's rating.
And in a state in which a state-wide Democratic candidate cannot win without a good portion of the independent or unaffiliated voters, only 39 percent of unaffiliated voters give Governor Malloy a favorable job performance rating.
It is only November 2012, there is still time, but the last thing the Malloy Administration should want is for the media, or anyone else, to be looking into the 2012 numbers for guidance about 2014.
In fact, the one conclusion the leaps out, is the data reveals that Malloy's low job rating among Democrats, and especially among women, is so low that it bolsters the notion that if someone chose to challenge Malloy for the Democratic nomination, it most certainly wouldn't be a cakewalk for the incumbent.
Take for example, the depth of feeling among those who, at least, say they have a favorable opinion of the job Malloy is doing as Governor.
Of the 92 percent of Democrats who approve of the job President Obama is doing, seven in ten (69 percent) of those Democrats say they STRONLGY APPROVE of the job Obama is doing.
Of those same Democrats, less than 4 in 10 (38 percent) say that they STRONGLY APPROVE of the job Governor Malloy is doing.
The polling data reveals that Connecticut's Democrats do not strongly support the incumbent Democratic Governor. This situation is reiterated by the news that 1 in 5 Democrats actually disapprove of the Governor's job performance.
As bad as the news is for a potential Democratic Primary, the news for Malloy is even worse when it comes to a potential General Election match-up.
While a quarter of all unaffiliated voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job President Obama is doing, a breathtakingly insignificant 8 percent of unaffiliated voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job Malloy is doing.
Equally troubling is that where 41 percent of all women voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job the President has been doing, only 16 percent of all women voters STRONGLY APPROVE of the job Malloy is doing.
One thing is clear is that Malloy and the State Republicans were engaged in so much political spin about what the 2012 election meant for the 2014 race last week, that they both lost contact with reality and the truth.
Cut through all the bull, and the truth is that the Malloy and his political operation should be extremely worried about this year's election results. When one in five Democratic voters has a negative opinion of Malloy's job performance, it is definitely time to worry about the level of support among the Democratic base. This should come as no surprise to Malloy's people, considering the way he has treated state employees, teachers and other core Democratic constituencies.
However, that said, it is premature to say too much about 2014 considering Governor Malloy still has the 2013 Legislative Session to rebuild his level of support among the Democratic base - or further undermine their level of support - as he moves toward the 2014 election cycle.
You can find the CTMirror story here: http://www.ctmirror.org/story/... and the CT Newsjunkie story here: http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/ct...