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My Left Nutmeg

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CT GOV: Quinnipiac: Foley up by 6

by: ctblogger

Wed Sep 10, 2014 at 08:45:42 AM EDT

UPDATE 2:30 PM: As usual, when it comes to Dan Malloy's BIG problem, Susan Bigelow nailed it.

Tellingly, Foley voters said they were voting against Malloy instead of for Foley by a whopping 62-33 percent. The opposite was true of Malloy voters, who said they were voting for Malloy instead of against Foley by 58-33 percent. What this means is that the scare campaign to make voters afraid of Tom Foley really isn't working, and that Malloy is doing a lousy job of selling his own policies.

This puts the governor in a very bad position heading into the fall campaign, and a lot of it is his own fault. Malloy has never been particularly good at defending his policies in ways that connect with people, and that's shown in his campaign. He's struggling to find a message that works; so far hitting Tom Foley for being too gloomy or painting him as a ruthless capitalist isn't cutting it.

Foley has found his own very simple and effective message: the Malloy years have been a disaster. Voters are inclined to agree, which is why Foley can run an uninspired, gaffe-prone campaign and still get lots of votes based on how bad the other guy is.

To make matters worse, Democrats, usually the driving force in Connecticut politics, have been given very little to rally around. The party is divided over education and labor, and Malloy's attempts to patch things up have seemed like tokens at best. The visit from Bill Clinton could have been a game-changer, or at least it might have stopped the bleeding a little bit by getting Democrats excited about the race again. Instead, Clinton's speech, delivered before a less-than-capacity crowd in a hotel ballroom instead of outdoors in front of a cheering throng, turned into an optical disaster. Democrats, instead of getting pumped up for the campaign, have been left grumbling.


Well said.


Ouch. Given that this is a likey voters poll, this is not good news for the Governor.

Connecticut likely voters say Tom Foley, the Republican challenger in the governor's race, would do a better job than Gov. Dannel Malloy, the Democrat, handling two top issues, the economy/jobs and government spending, as they give Foley a 46 - 40 percent lead eight weeks before Election Day, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Foley leads 82 - 9 percent among Republicans and 48 - 35 percent among independent voters, while Gov. Malloy takes Democrats 77 - 10 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. This survey of likely voters can not be compared to prior surveys of registered voters.

Malloy's 45 - 38 percent lead with women is offset by Foley's 54 - 35 percent lead among men.

Joe Visconti, running as an independent candidate, gets 7 percent of the vote. When the race is recalculated without Visconti, Foley leads Malloy 49 - 43 percent.

Among Connecticut likely voters who name a candidate, 69 percent say their mind is made up, while 30 percent say they might change their mind by Election Day. Their minds are made up, say 68 percent of Malloy voters and 77 percent of Foley backers, while 75 percent of Visconti supporters say they might change their mind.

"In our first likely voter poll, Tom Foley has the edge but Gov. Dannel Malloy is certainly within striking distance," said Douglas Schwartz, PhD, director of the Quinnipiac University poll. "Foley has a double-digit lead among the key swing group, independent voters. With eight weeks until Election Day, there are 6 percent undecided and another 30 percent who say they could change their mind."


A key problem which has always been a problem with the governor is his high negative favorability rating, which as Doug Schwartz explains is hard for an incumbent to overcome.

"A difficult problem for Malloy to overcome is his high negative favorability rating, as 53 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion of him, including 40 percent who say they have a strongly unfavorable opinion," Dr. Schwartz added.

"It is tough for a well-known incumbent to change voter opinion once formed. In contrast, only 33 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Foley."

Connecticut likely voters have a negative 40 - 53 percent favorability rating of Malloy. Foley gets a positive 42 - 33 percent favorability rating. For Visconti, 89 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.


With less than two months till Election day,
the fact that the Governor is losing to a candidate who, until moments until the first debate in late August couldn't provide details of his plan for the state should give you an clue about serious problems Malloy faces.

Not to say that there isn't time for Governor Malloy to close the gap but that time is running out...and fast.

You can read the crosstabs below the fold...

There's More... :: (0 Comments, 9 words in story)

Blumenthal rips into the NFL

by: ctblogger

Tue Sep 09, 2014 at 08:51:31 AM EDT

I'm so glad that Richard Blumenthal is our Senator!

For Sen. Richard Blumenthal, the Ravens' firing of running back Ray Rice on Monday doesn't come close to addressing how the NFL deals with domestic violence. He said the league "deserves special scrutiny" for such matters.

Blumenthal said he won't "rule out" Congressional involvement to pressure the NFL to alter its "deep-seated fundamental far-reaching problem" involving domestic abuse.

The Connecticut Democrat, who has been a sharp critic of the NFL's handling of domestic violence issues, said NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell's leadership has been "completely lacking," adding that it should not require recorded evidence to punish someone for abuse.

Discuss :: (0 Comments)

Leonard Pitts: If GOP is right, why are red states so far behind?

by: Larkspur

Mon Sep 08, 2014 at 15:12:55 PM EDT

( - promoted by ctblogger)


Leonard Pitts: If GOP is right, why are red states so far behind?
I have a question for my Republican friends.

SNIP

If Republican fiscal policies really are the key to prosperity, if the GOP formula of low taxes and little regulation really does unleash economic growth, then why has the country fared better under Democratic presidents than Republican ones and why are red states the poorest states in the country?
SNIP

As of 2010, according to the Census Bureau, Connecticut, which has not awarded its electoral votes to a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, had a per capita income of $56,000, best in the country, while Mississippi, which hasn't gone Democrat since 1976, came in at under $32,000 - worst in the country. At the very least, stats like these should call into question GOP claims of superior economic policy.

Yet, every election season the party nevertheless makes those claims. It will surely do so again this fall. So it seems fair to ask: Where are the numbers that support the assertion? Why is Texas only middling in terms of per capita income? Why is Mississippi not a roaring engine of economic growth? How are liberal Connecticut and Massachusetts doing so well?

SNIP


This is a question every Democrat being challenged by a Republican or Teapublican should ask their opponent.
Discuss :: (0 Comments)

Monday roundup

by: ctblogger

Mon Sep 08, 2014 at 08:42:56 AM EDT

Headlines!
  • It doesn't shock me that Danbury's longest serving deceitful mayor and his political party of racial intolerance, bigotry, and dishonesty, invited this goofball to Danbury with open arms.



  • It seems like the GOP candidate running for Debra Lee Hovey's seat might have some explaining to do.
    A Trumbull man being sought for questioning in the death of a popular emergency dispatch operator has met with police.

    But Thomas Fischer contends he had nothing to do with Jennifer Sredzinski's death.

    [...]

    Meanwhile, police have taken DNA samples from Sredzinski's former husband, J.P. Sredzinski, chairman of the town council and the Republican candidate for the 112th District state House seat representing Monroe and Newtown, according to law enforcement sources.

    Although the couple were divorced last March, J.P. Sredzinski, the dispatch supervisor for the town of Stratford, lives in the same condominium complex, the Hills of Monroe.

    "The police department is doing what they have to do to investigate the case," he said in a phone interview Friday. "This has been a very difficult week for me and my family."

    He would not comment further on the case.


  • The drumbeat against Tom Foley's laughable campaign continues.
    I wonder if I am the only one puzzled by the way Tom Foley is running for governor in Connecticut.

    Maybe he just likes running and doesn't want to win?

    This is now his second campaign and it seems to be run much worse than the one four years ago.


  • As usual, Bigelow nails it.
    Our self-esteem as a state has been low for a long time, and it's tempting to think that there's nothing ahead but decay and stagnation. When we stop believing that it's even worth changing things in this state we lose any hope of making a better future for ourselves, and we risk sinking deeper into the swamp of cynicism and infighting.

  • Well, at least it might explain things...
    Former Gov. John G. Rowland responded with a strange outburst during a meeting in 2009 when staffers for Mark Greenberg's congressional campaign rejected his consulting proposal, the staffers testified Thursday.

    Greenberg's former campaign manager, Marc Katz, and consultant, Sam Fischer, detailed the meeting during the second day of Rowland's campaign corruption trial in a federal courthouse in New Haven.

    "I just remember shaking his hand and thinking that was the weirdest meeting I had ever been to," Fischer said told the court.

    During his testimony, Fischer brought up a detail about the meeting that prompted sharp questions by Rowland's lead attorney, Reid Weingarten. Fischer said Rowland kept "sniffing" in a way that stuck him as odd.

    "He must of had a chronic nasal condition . . . When he went to make a point he sniffed constantly. I don't know how else to describe it," he said.

    Weingarten did not like the implication.

    "You weren't suggesting Mr. Rowland was on drugs?" Weingarten asked during a cross examination. "Is that what you were intending to imply? That we have a cokehead here? Is that what you're saying?"


  • Remember to follow the money!
Discuss :: (0 Comments)

Thursday roundup

by: ctblogger

Thu Sep 04, 2014 at 17:55:58 PM EDT

The latest.

  • First, Foley is endorsed by a far right gun extremist group, now he's endorsed by the another pack of intolerant whackos.
    Prominent Democrats in the state legislature, religious leaders and gay rights activists held a press conference on the steps of the state Capitol Thursday morning to criticize Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Foley for accepting the endorsement of the Family Institute of Connecticut.

    "Candidate Foley gives very few details but now we know the company he's keeping,'' said state Sen. Beth Bye, D-West Hartford. "They didn't just give him the endorsement, he sought it and I have to say as a gay resident of Connecticut, I find that offensive."

    State Comptroller Kevin Lembo described the Family Institute as a far-right fringe group that is far outside the mainstream in Connecticut.

    "The endorsement of the Family Institute is, or should be, the kiss of the political death in this state. It is outside of who we are as a people and the values of this community,'' Lembo said. "So I would encourage Tom Foley to think [of] the pure politics if nothing else, and reject this endorsement."


  • Accurate again!
    Five times now, Claim Check has evaluated assertions about Tom Foley's involvement with the Bibb Co. textile firm in Georgia. And five times now, BibbTowerwe've found that one side or the other didn't get the story exactly right - though usually without veering so far from the truth as to earn an unfavorable rating.

    [...]

    The Bibb Co.'s history is complicated and not likely to get a clear airing in a 30-second partisan commercial. But this spot from Malloy steers clear of factual errors, relying mostly on personal opinions that may be disputed, but cannot be proved or disproved. And while the timeframe of the Bibb's demise may be confusing, the basic foundation of the ad - that Foley was in charge as the company declined - is true. As such, we rate this ad Generally Accurate.


  • New Britain's juvenile mayor has raised taxes by 11 percent, made an ass out of herself more times than I can remember, yet her ilk on the city council is debating this? What ever happened to let the voters decide?
    Does the Republican caucus have enough support on the Democratic side of the aisle to hold a hearing on the actions of Democratic Alderman Michael Trueworthy, following his admitted verbal attack on Mayor Erin Stewart in her office in July?

    That is the question some are asking as the Common Council gets ready next week to vote on the matter.


    No wonder New Britain has turned into the armpit of Connecticut.

  • Explain to me again why Rowland isn't in jail?
    Mark Greenberg, a Republican seeking the 5th Congressional District seat for the third time in six years, testified Wednesday in U.S. District Court that former Gov. John G. Rowland offered himself as a consultant to his first race on one unusual condition: Rowland wanted to be paid through Greenberg's businesses or his animal charity, not his campaign.

    And Rowland, who was trying to rebuild his life after 10 months in prison on corruption charges that forced him from office in 2004, wanted to be paid handsomely: At least $720,000 to work for Greenberg through the 2010 election, and to stay on his payroll for another year, with 90 percent of the fee due immediately if Greenberg canceled.

Discuss :: (0 Comments)

Comptroller Lembo reports surplus for fiscal year 2015

by: ctblogger

Wed Sep 03, 2014 at 12:50:01 PM EDT

The latest from State Comptroller Kevin Lembo's office has to be good news for the governor.

PRESS RELEASE:

Comptroller Kevin Lembo today, in his first projection for the new fiscal year, said the state is on track to end Fiscal Year 2015 with a $300,000 surplus.

Lembo said he will report the final pre-audited surplus amount for Fiscal Year 2014 on Sept. 30.

In a letter to Gov. Dannel P. Malloy regarding Fiscal Year 2015, Lembo noted that the Office of Policy and Management (OPM) recently disclosed that certain federal reimbursements, including $249.2 million that the state was anticipating this year, have been deferred pending further review of state claims related to part of the Medicaid expansion. Lembo said he expects an update on the status of those funds on Sept. 5.

"I will join with OPM and the State Treasurer in carefully monitoring the federal reimbursement issue and will report on any change in the current situation and the potential budgetary impact," Lembo said.

Lembo reported that General Fund spending is expected to grow by an estimated 2 percent and revenue growth is projected to grow 2.6 percent in Fiscal Year 2015.

"These budget targets will be influenced by changes in economic conditions as the fiscal year progresses," Lembo said. He noted that the miscellaneous tax category contains $75 million related to enhanced collection activities by the Department of Revenue Services. "In future months I will detail changes in existing projections."

In his latest monthly report, Lembo highlighted several economic indicators that will likely influence the state budget going forward, most of them positive - including a sixth consecutive month of job growth in July, a growth in home sales and a strong stock market entering the new fiscal year.

"The jobs are coming back - and the state's economy continues to post moderate monthly growth," Lembo said. "Our next step is focusing on the quality and income tied to those jobs, and closing the widening income gap between the nation's highest and lowest earners."

Lembo pointed to a recent report commissioned by the U.S. Conference of Mayors and The Council on Metro Economies released this month, which noted that the United States has regained 8.7 million jobs lost during the Great Recession, and that employment has surpassed its pre-recession peak of 138.4 million jobs in 2008, according to the report.


You can read the full report below the fold...
There's More... :: (1 Comments, 9 words in story)
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