Obamania
among
the nation's young voters has renewed interest in the
political
participation of the under-30 set. How are these voters
likely to affect
Connecticut elections?
Historical registration data on young voters is limited, but there is
some evidence of
increased interest. From November 2007 to
January 2008, 8,300
new young voters registered in Connecticut (24% of
all new voters). From February to May 2008, after the primary,
the number
of new young voters increased to 12,304 (37% of all new
voters).
The young have been less likely to register as Democrats or Republicans
and are more likely to be unaffiliated. However, new young voters
registering this year (mostly after the primary) are increasingly
likely to identify as Democrats.
Regardless
of their party affiliation, young adults are likely to vote Democratic.
A March Quinnipiac poll found that 73% of CT voters under age
35 would
vote for Obama
over McCain (compared to 52% of all voters). They
have been
voting for Democrats for the last few elections, according to exit
polls -- often at higher rates than other age groups.
This partisan tendency extends to other state races. In 2006,
young
voters chose
Lamont over Lieberman (50% to 40%) in the general election,
while all other age groups favored Lieberman. Rell and
DeStefano were
tied among young voters, while Rell had a strong lead among
older voters.
Ah, but will they turn out?
Young adults are much less likely to be registered at all.
According to 2004
Census estimates, 45% of Connecticut's 18 to 24 year-old
citizens
were registered to vote, compared to 75% of those age 45 to 64.
Note: year markers should be shifted to left; 2006 data
charted but not
labeled
Estimates of turnout are typically based on Census and/or exit polling
data. Given the small sample sizes at the state level and a
lack of information on the statistical significance of any
changes, small and short-term shifts in these estimates should
interpreted with
caution. (Also turnout estimates are measured as a percentage
of the citizen population, not
as a percentage of registered voters.)
But based on the available data through 2006, young Connecticut adults
appeared to be bucking a national trend of increased turnout, and their
turnout ranked poorly compared to most states.
Midterm/Gubernatorial election turnout has been stagnant
or declining among young Connecticut voters. While
turnout increased among the young nationally between 2002 and
2006, there appeared to be a
slight decrease in Connecticut. Participation was reportedly
down most
among the state's Latino youth and those with only a high
school education.
More voters always show up in Presidential than midterm election years.
However,
general election turnout among young adults in
Connecticut's Presidential elections has not improved in this
decade. In 2004, the estimated
turnout was
44%, compared to 45% in 2000. Nationally, turnout among the
young increased dramatically from
40% to 49%, but Connecticut did not follow this trend.
Indeed, the state experienced one
of the worst declines in 18 to 24 year-old turnout in the
nation between 1972 and 2004, and ranked
near the bottom of all states in turnout for the last
Presidential election.
In
2008, the picture may be shifting. As noted above,
registration
among the young appears to be on the rise over the last several months.
And turnout
in the Presidential primary did increase relative to previous
cycles.
CT voter turnout, primary election
Turnout
18 to 29 year olds
Turnout
age 30 and over
Number of
young voters
Young as
share of voters
2000
7%
17%
21,394
(8,865 Dems)
6%
2008
12%
22%
51,436
(34,929 Dems)
10%
In 2004, there was no Republican primary. Among
Dems, 2004 primary turnout of young adults (6,501) was lower than in
2000.
By
the time
of Connecticut's primary, the 2000 election was not
as
competitive or interesting as this year's election. So some
increase
in turnout was to be expected. But the degree of the increase
and
the fact that young people made up a greater share of the primary
voters are significant.
Effective
outreach to young voters will clearly need to emphasize voter
registration and turnout. Despite the challenges of
activating this population, candidates cannot
afford to ignore a major voting bloc that in 2004 made up over
one in six Connecticut voters turning out in November.
For example,
Joe Courtney's margin of victory can easily
be attributed to increased turnout among college students.
Obamania
among
the nation's young voters has renewed interest in the
political
participation of the under-30 set. How are these voters
likely to affect
Connecticut elections?
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