The percentage of Connecticut voters who are registered Democrats has
been on the rise
since 2005, reversing a two-decade trend of declining Democratic
enrollment and increasing
unaffiliated registration. Meanwhile, Republican registration
has been
stagnant or declining for at least 50 years. A closer look at
Connecticut counties reveals how these statewide trends vary across
counties.
The
greatest loss of Republican enrollment was in the former Republican
strongholds of Fairfield and Litchfield counties. Indeed, the
loss in Fairfield County accounted for more than one-third of the GOP's
decline statewide. While the shifts are moderate, they do not
bode well for Chris Shays and the unchallenged
legislative Republicans
who are heavily concentrated in these two counties (particularly given
the equal financial footing provided by clean elections).
Democrats saw their greatest
percentage gains in Middlesex, Hartford, Fairfield, and New Haven
counties. Despite the high profile of the
Courtney-Simmons
race, Democratic registration in most of the counties overlapping that
district
budged the least.
2005-2007 Voter Registration Change by County
County
# Dems change
Dems % point change
# Repub change
R % point change
# Unaff change
U %
point change
Fairfield
4,143
1.3%
-7,604
-1.2%
-3,706
-0.2%
Hartford
2,290
1.4%
-5,677
-0.7%
-9,301
-1.0%
Litchfield
1,063
1.2%
-1,368
-0.8%
-1,304
-0.5%
Middlesex
522
1.5%
-1,082
-0.4%
-2,484
-1.2%
New Haven
2,778
1.3%
-3,611
-0.4%
-8,637
-1.0%
New London
789
0.9%
-1,283
-0.6%
-1,635
-0.5%
Tolland
716
1.2%
-470
-0.3%
-1,374
-1.1%
Windham
-133
0.1%
-505
-0.6%
-207
0.2%
Connecticut
12,168
1.2%
-21,600
-0.7%
-28,712
-0.7%
% measured as percentage point change, e.g., % of
voters who were
Ds in 2007 - % D voters in 2005; not percent change,
e.g., (2007
Dems - 2005 Dems)/2005 Dems.
It
is significant and probably surprising to many that Democrats outnumber
Republicans in every county except Litchfield County; even there, the
margin has grown very close. In 2006, newly registered
Democrats in Litchfield County outnumbered
new Republicans by a two to one margin. By now, the
balance may have shifted to the Democrats in the northwest.
Unaffiliated
voters outnumber Democrats in all regions except Hartford
County.
The decline of the unaffiliated in Hartford and New Haven counties
accounted for 62% of the downturn statewide. The conventional
wisdom is that unaffiliated voters tend to "bleed" toward the leading
major party in town, but that's difficult to determine without
voter IDs and is not the case in many elections.
Fewer voters overall: change in total registered voters, 2005-2007
County
# change in total
voters
% change in total
voters
Fairfield
-6,656
-1.4%
Hartford
-11,589
-2.4%
Litchfield
-1,440
-1.2%
Middlesex
-2,883
-2.9%
New Haven
-8,948
-1.9%
New London
-1,850
-1.3%
Tolland
-900
-1.1%
Windham
-658
-1.0%
Connecticut
-34,924
-1.8%
It's
also notable and unfortunate that the total number of
registered voters has declined in every county between 2005 and 2007,
despite the high interest in the Senate and Congressional races in
2006. (It is, however, predictable;
registration historically peaks for
Presidential elections, then declines.) It appears that those
who identify as
Republicans and
unaffiliated have become less likely to register at all or to
maintain their registration.
Hartford and New Haven counties are hemmoraghing the greatest numbers
of
voters, and Middlesex County the greatest percentage.
Complete
county and town level registration figures for 2008 are not available
from the Secretary of State's Web site. But it's clear that
even between October
2007 and January of this year, the statewide trend
of growing Democratic registration and declining unaffiliated
registration has continued.
Change in #'s of CT registered voters
October 07
to Jan 08
Democrats
10,340
Republicans
2,543
Unaffiliated
-12,840
Presidential elections tend to drive registration and
turnout. Indeed, in the three-month period
preceding the February Presidential primary, net Democratic
registration
increased by 10,340 -- almost as much as the 12,168 Democratic voter
increase over the two
year period
of 2005-2007. As the general election
approaches, if disaffection with Republicans grows, we can expect these
trends to continue. Then there's the small matter of turnout.
Coming next: a look at voter registration trends in Connecticut towns.
Data notes: Voter registration data from Secretary of State's elections
data and Register
and Manual pages. Congressional district data not
available for 2007.
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