| I started making and distributing these flyers about two years ago after meeting Greg Speeter (Executive Director of National Priorities Project or NPP) at the February 2005 UFPJ Assembly. (NPP does great work on this and many other issues ... they deserve our support!) These flyers got some circulation at the time but they got swallowed up in the clatter of all the other things that needed to be done.
I decided to update them for the meeting with Congressmen Larsen, Courtney and Murphy at the State Capitol on January 13th.
These estimates are roughly based on the NPP methodology. NPP has a more sophisticated allocation methodology than simply using census data for "town median household income", "number of households in town" to estimate "total town income" so that a fraction of state total income can be calculated. While NPP was willing to provide specific town level costs, they did not have the resources to provide a complete breakdown for all the towns, in all the states, that I wanted. After reviewing the differences between their estimates for the selected cities and towns that they published, and the estimates from the simplified approach, I determined that they were close enough to use.
Additionally, I could explain, in two sentences, EXACTLY how the numbers were calculated which was really disarming to people who scoffed at these "outrageous" estimates.
I use my 30 second spiel to explain where the numbers come from (I can do it without tripping over my tongue):
"Congress has authorized spending directly for the War in Iraq that is estimated to reach $378 Billion by March. Because Connecticut pays about 2.5 percent of all the Federal Tax Revenues, Connecticut's share of the cost is $9.2 Billion. This is then divided among all towns using town level median household income as the allocator. For example ______[Simsbury's] median household income is _____ [just under one percent] of the states's total so _____ [Simbury's] share is ____ [just under one percent] of the $9.2 Billion or ____ [$87] million."
There are many squishy parts of any estimate like this, but, this is credible and convincing enough to satisfy just about everybody I have talked to. (Note: the real big "squishy" is that the money is borrowed.)
Now: Download a flyer for your town ... make copies ... rehearse the 30 second spiel ... go forth and talk about one aspect of the cost of the War in Iraq. |