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All the polling may be somewhat worthless anyway, the trends more valuable than the actual numbers any one candidate has. If, as expected, some republicans find it simply unpalatable to pull the lever for Lieberman and vote for the real-- rather than the pseudo-republican-- that would render all these polls meaningless.
Remember the cross-tabs at the SUSA poll? Ned's losing among independents -- and even 35% of Democrats. You can argue that the SUSA poll's not credible. Fine. Still, he should be raking in the independents, because they agree with his ideas. And Joe is an a-hole.
But they're trending Lieberman, for a number of reasons which I have already outlined (and you read), most of all because they actually think Joe is an independent thinker.
If Ned were winning independents, Rasmussen's numbers would be at around 55-35-5.
Lieberman is getting 75-80% of republican voters by some estimates, and nearly 60% of unaffiliated. By what new math do you suppose Ned Lamont should be "way" ahead facing that reality?
Yeah, Joe's trends are great.
Ned should be getting 75% of affiliates and 90% of Democrats. That would place us at about 35+20 = 55%. If he's not, that means the campaign is not appealing properly to those consituencies.
Those graphics you've place are old. The trends have now flattened out.
I haven't had my coffee yet.
It did not happen overnight.
The Indies are ultimately persuadable. I don't understand why people are screaming here that the race should have been over yesterday.
This is a marathon, folks. If Ned was out there throwing everything at the wall right now, he'd look pretty bad.
Slow and steady, baby -- just not *too* slow and *too* steady.
I think we're okay. The Indies will start taking a close look soon, and I think they'll like what they see in Ned.
Of course Lieberman is out to an early lead. If his numbers hadn't shown that, he never would have made the jump.
Has it dawned on you that Lamont/Swan/Hillsman haven't run one ad against Joe in the general, yet you continue squawking about how the sky is supposedly falling.
Even then we should squawk. And it's not the media campaign I'm squawking about. It's rapid response/campaign organization/Ned's TV presence.
When I was playing ball in school, my dad squwaked at me after every game. Even when I scored. And I'm glad he did. I'm also glad that the audience cheered.
November 9th, I promise I'll stop squawking. Unless we lose.
Now Ned will have Dem backing and the Dem GOTV/ground operation. Lieberman ain't got nothin'.
Now that Ned is back in the game and on the air, we have to hope that will have some impact.
I'm getting nervous about the Lieberman appeal to independents. Even though it's entirely false, on the air it looks like Lieberman has an advantage over Lamont. We've got to counter that.
Lobbyists for Lieberman ad, anyone? Show a sea of briefcase- toting torsos and legs walking up marble steps. "63 lobbyists for every member of Congress." The crowd storms down the hallway, into a Senate office. The briefcases empty dollars onto a desk. "For too long the special interests have given millions of dollars to our elected officials, and gotten billions of taxpayer money in return. Energy bill giveaways to the oil companies. Bankruptcy rules that hurt real working families. And no bid contracts that deliver nothing." Another faceless suit - clearly the Senator- sits at the desk and touches the money.
"That's got to change. Ned Lamont isn't taking special interest PAC money. Joe Lieberman has taken millions from the special interests. 90% of his money comes from sources outside of Connecticut. Whose Senator is he?"
That's one way to counter Lieberman's appeal to independents - show them his real constituency is the special interests and the lobbyists.
Ned is still the underdog here, which is OK on 9/15. I don't think we need to be ahead until 10/25 or so. Remember Joe's "comeback" before the primary, a long, slow steady erosion of support is all we need.
PS. If we ran that ad, some right-wingnut would call it anti-Semitic.
It's Morning in America. Too bad Reagan's not here to see it. - Me
I'd hope that the Iraq stance would hit home with the same ratio for CT unaffiliateds as it does for the country as a whole.
I've re-read Ned's early interviews, and I have to think that if he can re-air the early commercials, make new ones based on his opnions of the bankruptcy bill, corporate accountability, etc, he'd make gains with Dems and not-Dems.
Just a guess.
However, I'm also worried that Swan et. al. are trying too hard to prevent peaking too soon, that they'll end up not peaking at all.
After the primary, Ned Lamont had to dramatically change and scale up his campaign. This is a huge task that is fraught with peril, and only the best campaigns can successfully accomplish this feat.
Post-primary August, into September, was probably the most difficult and challenging period for the Lamont campaign so far. But they had to do this re-tooling to compete in the general election, and it should be done now.
You may have noticed that Lamont has had a fairly low profile for the last month, and even few big campaign events until this week. I think that we'll see the Lamont campaign is something really special now.
It's great news that the Rasmussen poll is a tossup. Things could be much worse, given how much energy and time the Lamont campaign had to devote to scaling up for November.
The "pivot" in Ned's campaign is taking place as we speak, and we will see a surge of well-timed activity going forward.
Note the word "well-timed": we can't expect Ned to throw everything at the wall right now, as many here seem to be advocating (Where's Kerry? Where's Feingold? Why aren't there more ads? That ad didn't work, etc...). This is going to be an exercise in building momentum over the duration of the campaign. Let's watch it unfold, and contribute everything we can along the way.
And -- let's have fun again! :)
And I'm still waiting for that Friends ad to be played. I want to see Ann Coulter endorsing Joe Lieberman in a TV ad. Joe Lieberman and George Bush believe that our govt should cut and run on capturing Osama Bin Laden so that Bush and the neocons could invade Iraq. Despite no Wmds and no links to 9/11, Lieberman supports that decision.
Another good time to hammer Joe will be when the financial reports for the 3rd quarter come out. How much did ExxonMobil make? How about the pharmaceuticals? Bread and butter issues will go a long way with people who plan to vote, but don't follow it with the same intensity that we do.
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