Maybe it was the fresh mountain air of Switzerland or maybe it was the realization their approach wasn't working, but over the last 48 hours we've seen the Malloy Administration make a significant shift in the way they are talking about the state's problems and Malloy's record to date.
For months, Governor Dannel Malloy, Secretary of the Office of Policy and Management Ben Barnes and Chief Advisor Roy Occhiogrosso have been diligently sticking to their message that Connecticut's fiscal health is back on track and all will be well.
In recent weeks, even when Comptroller Kevin Lembo raised specific concerns about the health of the state budget, even when Moody's Investment Service downgraded Connecticut's Bond Rating, even when the Legislature's non-partisan Office of Fiscal Analysis determined that Connecticut's state budget actually had a deficit and not a surplus and even when OFA determined that Malloy's purported pension savings were completely off base, the Malloy Administration claimed that they were right and everyone else was wrong.
A couple of months ago, Ben Barnes, Malloy's Budget Chief reported that "the enacted budget returns the state to structural balance for the foreseeable future, with operating surpluses projected in each year of the biennium. We are projecting a General Fund balance of $79.1 million this month, an improvement of $3.5 million from last month's estimate" " Ben Barnes 11-15-2011
In December Barnes said things were even better claiming "we are projecting a General Fund balance of $83.7 million this month, an improvement of $4.6 million from last month's estimate, and $8.7 million above the amount reserved per Sec.46 of Public Act 11‐48 to address the GAAP deficit." Ben Barnes 12-20-2011
Just a few weeks later, when Moody's downgraded the state's budget rating, Barnes' retort was "Moody's is wrong in its analysis of the state's finances, and wrong to change Connecticut's credit rating...Connecticut has done all the right things to shore up our finances, and Moody's has responded with a downgrade intended to satisfy their internal corporate need to deflect attention from their historic lack of credibility." Ben Barnes 1/20/2012
Malloy's chief message advisor, Roy Occhiogrosso went so far as to claim "this Governor has played no gimmicks whatsoever with the state's finances. None. Thanks to Gov. Malloy the state is keeping its books honestly, for the first time ever, and meeting its obligations completely" Roy Occhiogrosso 1/20/2012
The Malloy Administration was clear. They were right and Moody's was wrong. In fact, Moody made this wrong decision to make up for their role in causing the Great Recession.
Days later, as word spread that state revenues were down and the promised state surplus had suddenly become a state deficit, the Governor's Communication Director announced that OFA was wrong and that "Secretary Barnes is confident in OPM's numbers," Andrew Doba 1/25/012
A day later, Governor Malloy added "We're confident based on current numbers that we're dealing with that we'll end in the black...We think that we're going to recognize the savings we have built in the budget" Dan Malloy 1/26/2012
At one point OPM even went so far as to say that the surplus was real and everyone else was wrong.
Their claim? The state's $20 billion dollar budget actually had a surplus of $1 million.
And finally, last week when OFA announced that the Malloy/SEBAC pension changes would fall billions short of the number the administration had promised, Barnes shot back that OFA's analysts were "logically incorrect" adding "While we respect the capabilities of the legislature's Office of Fiscal Analysis, they are not actuaries; their analysis of the pension fund is flawed," Ben Barnes 1/27/2012
Their message was clear, concise and consistent. We're right and anyone who questions us is not only wrong, but they are "logically incorrect," have no credibility or are simply idiots.
Faced with reality, their message never appeared particularly useful or sophisticated but it certainly seemed to make them feel good. It was a reminder of the scene from the 1986 movie Matilda where Harry Wormwood (played by Danny DeVito) tells his kid "I'm smart, you're dumb; I'm big, you're little; I'm right, you're wrong, and there's nothing you can do about it."
And so it went until a few days ago when the Malloy Administration made a profound change to their message.
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