Come on Kevin: You cannot be serious!

I don't understand why trying to shut-down a primary race via getting endorsements, etc. (4.00 / 1)

is considered a problem.  It's a tactic that I expect both candidates to try.  Lieberman tried that with Lamont in 2006, but it didn't work.  

Trying to become the dominant candidate in money raised and endorsements sought is the main reason why announcing early or at least having supporters sending signals after the election last year that you were planning on running for the office was critical, and why I felt that Rep. Courtney, who waited until after Lieberman announced his retirement in Jan 2011 to start thinking about running for the office, wasn't serious about running for the Senate seat in 2012.  Anyone who announces now is just trying to raise their name recognition.

One of Susan Bysiewicz's main problems is that her past actions of jumping from what looks to be a tough race -- governor -- to what looks like an uncontested race -- attorney general -- has pissed off some CT Dems.  Last year's race wasn't the first time she did that.  Four years before she planned on running for governor but couldn't get enough support, so she backed out to rerun for her Sec. of State job.  There were CT Dems at that time who were looking to run for her job as Sec. of State, so she is running up against an intra-party backlash that she may not have anticipated.

Course, Sen. Blumenthal use to keep CT Dems hanging over whether he was going to run for governor or not in the past, so Bysiewicz is not alone in pissing off CT Dems.

Personally, I like primaries.  It's the time that Democrats get a chance to talk to their candidates about what does it mean to be a Democrat.

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by: Larkspur @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 21:52:42 PM UTC

my recollection (0.00 / 0)

is that people told Lamont that they were not going to endorse before the convention as it was considered poor form for elected officials to do so.  It's been awhile and a lot has happened so maybe I am misremembering, but that's my recollection,.]  

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by: greenpeas @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 22:29:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Or... (0.00 / 0)

They're supporting a friend and are trying to help him early on.

Maybe that's too far out there.  

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by: NewEnglandCJ @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 21:55:28 PM UTC

Rennie has friends? (4.00 / 1)

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by: Larkspur @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 22:24:24 PM UTC

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Talking about Rep. Murphy. (0.00 / 0)

But point taken.

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by: NewEnglandCJ @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 23:14:49 PM UTC

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Isn't this about sending signals and early money? (0.00 / 0)

It's unclear to me what the Obama/Tong connection would bear in terms of donations, but if all the CT Congressional reps come out for  Murphy, wouldn't it be rather awkward for Obama to come out for Tong, his former student?  Seems to me that the early endorsement is about signaling to money and reducing the impact and likelihood of potential other endorsements.

It would be interesting to know what kind of donor overlap there is across Tong, Murphy, Bysiewicz and Lieberman.
Because each has run for a different office, they could have some big donors in common.  Likewise donor overlap between the CT Congressional delegation and these 4 might be an interesting little database exercise for the campaigns to undertake.  Oh, you think they have already?

Tong in his third term in the state House  has the least legislative experience of any of the candidates, but having connections to his mentor, Joe Lieberman, I bet is a major reason for having the motivation to take the leap.
He has a home court advantage over Murphy in that he is a dogged campaigner and he's not in Washington DC most of the time.  Will the diehard FOJ (Friends of Joe) line up behind Tong?  I don't imagine Joe will be getting his cooties on Tong too openly (from a progressive perspective)but he didn't get where he is by being bad at closed door operations.

Joe is an effective violinist for crowds predisposed to like his brand of music, which he is adept at changing depending on what the crowd likes to hear.  Is the Land of Steady Habits, especially in the Naugatuck Valley, ready to catapult Joe's guy ahead of the rest?  Or is "I'm with Joe" a cred that, like the credit default swaps of a bank unable to make good on them, a great idea whose time has come and gone?

Having seen a third party try to play a campaign by asking how much it was worth to the campaign to have them bow out, I can ask some of the more experienced political hands at this process how likely at some point  that Dem candidates' agreeing to bow out of this race could have any political value, and when /under what conditions.

Because Bruce Rubinstein says this is an unusual development, I gotta conclude it's about internal elbowing and not about anything as platonic as, "because he's our friend."

Pass the popcorn and hope that somebody who has more actual information than I do will straighten out the errors in my speculations.

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by: greenpeas @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 22:56:09 PM UTC

I did wonder (0.00 / 0)

if it was about cutting Tong off at the pass because he might have support from the LieberDem constituency.

Great point about the Obama connection. It would be extremely bad form for Obama to come out in support of Tong if he ran, serving to further alienate the progressives, whom he's already done a pretty good job of pissing off.  

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by: saramerica @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 02:29:26 AM UTC

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You are giving William Tong (0.00 / 0)

Way too much credit.

If he wants to be next cycle's Gerry Garcia, I guess he's welcome to be. But he'll never gain any real traction.

His only hope would be to hang out and somehow become the accidental candidate...

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by: AndersonScooper @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 02:31:20 AM UTC

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In what way? (0.00 / 0)

I guess I don't get the Gerry Garcia comment, unless you are saying that an Asian American no matter how qualified can't win in Connecticut, where Tong was the first Asian American to be elected to the legislature.  I think the Naugatuck Valley e.g. is a tough row to hoe, but I also think that if anybody can pierce the bright white veil in CT and make it not about ethnicity, it could well be Tong.  I'd like to know the ethnic makeup of the Republican district he won in Stamford/New Canaan.  It's unlikely he won on the strength of the Asian American vote in those neighborhoods.

He is on the energy and judiciary committees and has selected wisely a number of the issues he has championed: alternative energy sources, lyme disease, getting funding for a major well contamination problem that has racked Stamford in the last couple of years, focusing not merely on the death penalty but on overhauling the way information is passed around/shared in the judiciary system (the miscarriage of which was a factor in the parole board's release of at least one of the perpetrators of the Cheshire murders).  He's gone after gasoline price gouging, an issue dear to the hearts of Greenwich citizens.

It is true that he is a dogged campaigner, at least in the vote seeking stage.  Whether that translates into success on the fundraising end -- it will for sure translate into applying himself to the job at hand.

He tried to go to every household when he ran first time for state rep, and went back more than once if people were not home.  I don't know what kind of a fundraiser he is, and that is what it will all be about.  The people who know and like Tong tend to be ardent believers in him (he's from my town, so I get to see this up close and personal).

If you mean I overspeculate about the viability of a Lieberdem connection, yeah, I know what the polls say, but I'm just covering all bases -- I have to say, there is a Chuckie quality about Lieberman that makes me at least acknowledge his ability to turn group A against group B, hype up nonissues to scare the bejesus out of aging Jews in Florida who are willing to believe that Ned Lamont could possibly be Stalin incarnate, and so forth.  If there is a way to make Connecticut believe that it is strategic ONLY to vote for a Chinese American in the 2012 election -- in fact dangerous not to --then Joe just may slither it out and find it.

Make no mistake, this is not a biography of Saint William.  If you're saying that it's all over due to the endorsements, that well may be -- I certainly would find it daunting.

I'm just sayin -- you may not put your money on him in this race, a lot of people may not, but he will go somewhere at some point, and he will prove himself a candidate worthy of respect, even for those who do not agree with him on issues they care deeply about.  

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by: greenpeas @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 11:37:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

An Asian American could win (0.00 / 0)

Just as easy as a Latino. At root, I don't think race, religion, persuasion or ethnicity matters much to your average CT voter.

What I tried to say was 2-fold. Tong running because of his "unique background is Garcia redux. It's one thing to include your life story as part of the campaign. It's another to center your campaign on it.

But besides that Tong has no demonstrated capability for running a competitive statewide race, and that fiscal conservativeness, of which he boasts, will repel the party activists and render any US Senate attempt D.O.A.

Fwiw.

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by: AndersonScooper @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 16:23:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for explaining (0.00 / 0)

I completely missed the unique background claim and making it a focus of the campaign.  Went right by me.  I feel the way about that as I did about those who wanted Bysiewicz in the mix so we could have a woman as governor, AG, or Senator.  

You're right on the statewide race aspect.  A big unknown.  

The fiscal conservative aspect probably plays well in southern Fairfield County, even with the extremes to which it is being taken (fiscal recklessness masqueraded as conservatism) in the GOP.  I don't think Linda McMahon will be running on the kind of fiscal recklessness that would have her outspending the Dem candidate and still -- oh, wait, maybe she WILL...

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by: greenpeas @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 16:38:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree with Ed (0.00 / 0)

 While I  would grant  that Mr Tong  does have a  nice  story, it is also true that  in our party race  and ethnicity  doesn't matter  much anymore, what  does still matter is  ideology.The  primary process is one  where we on the party left have  a  great influence  and most of us,and I am one,would be repelled  by a "Joe"  type conservative.Even a person  who is  well known  to be a fiscal conservative and  a moderate  on the social issues  will not ignite those of  us on the left to a degree  that Mr Tong  would need to mount  a credible statewide campaign  at this stage of  the game.

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by: BruceRubenstein2 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:50:06 PM UTC

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Why did everybody come out early to endorse? (0.00 / 0)

I'd be very interested in your opinion -- Might it have had to do with elbowing Tong and Bysiewicz out?

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by: greenpeas @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 11:40:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I do think there's an element of not wanting to have (0.00 / 0)

a long bloody expensive primary season and then have to face Linda McMoneybags. Or whomever.  

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by: saramerica @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:36:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]