Chris Murphy on Senate: "I am seriously thinking about it."

As long as Murphy and Courtney both don't run... (0.00 / 0)

We'll be doing just fine.

If they both fight for the seat, expect the race to get drawn-out and ugly, with Ted Jr., entering a field that will already crowded by Susan Bysiewicz, and Gary Collins.

What would suck would be if a weaker candidate won in a multi-candidate primary. (Murphy or Courtney are obviously our best horses.) Like Lieberman, both Susie and Kennedy both have their bases within the Dem Party.

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by: AndersonScooper @ Tue Dec 21, 2010 at 02:17:05 AM UTC

Does Ted Jr have a base? (0.00 / 0)

I mean, he'll get some votes for sure, but I can't figure out what demographic or geographic groups he'll be able to go to in order to scoop up a lot of votes at once. He certainly doesn't have a list of supporters built up that he can turn to in state (a measure even Collins is ahead in).

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

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by: mattw @ Tue Dec 21, 2010 at 07:39:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Know anything about Ted Kennedy, Jr? (0.00 / 0)

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by: thomashooker @ Tue Dec 21, 2010 at 16:23:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good point (0.00 / 0)

It's not like Lamont, who was successful because in 2006 he had a base of progressives upset with Lieberman.  TKJ isn't going to find a huge group of democrats that hate Murphy and Lieberman.

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by: MBethel @ Tue Dec 21, 2010 at 16:54:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does a Kennedy have a base (0.00 / 0)

Within the Democratic Party?

Surely you jest!

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by: AndersonScooper @ Tue Dec 21, 2010 at 18:37:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I guess I mean (0.00 / 0)

A base he can use. Organizations that support his key policy priorities. A list of ID'd volunteers or donors. Is the former Dodd organization behind him. Hell, do 3 out of 4 Irish Democrats support him? What people will help him go from being a non-candidate to a successful candidate?  

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

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by: mattw @ Tue Dec 21, 2010 at 22:28:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, I think Ted Jr. has enough friends, (0.00 / 0)

and money to launch a credible campaign.

Probably not enough to gain the nomination, (but in a 5-way convention, who knows).

And certainly he'd enjoy much free media.

Someone please tell me what happens when a pollster calls up and asks, who would you vote for?:

A. Susan Bysiewicz
B. Joe Courtney
C. Ted Kennedy Jr.
D. Joe Lieberman
E. Chris Murphy
F. (Gary Collins)

Of course any fair poll would include head-to-heads. But Rasmussen, Merriman River, & probably even Quinnipiac won't bother being fair....

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by: AndersonScooper @ Wed Dec 22, 2010 at 00:59:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Poll example (0.00 / 0)

I think that your poll example gets at what I'm talking about. With all 5 of the other candidates, I can think of one or more groups of people who would be attracted to that candidacy. (Even though Collins' base of engaged anti-proliferation people and peace activists don't form a huge or particularly strongly networked community, his track record in that area provides a rationale for his candidacy.) Bysiewicz, Courtney, and Murphy have strong regional power bases and carefully cultivated lists of donors and activists. Bysiewicz and Lieberman have support from substantial ethnic communities.

What I'm trying to say is that I think Kennedy starts way behind the others that are suggested here, and I haven't observed him racing to catch up. I also haven't heard of a rationale for why I'd want him to be my Senator, apart from "but he's a frickin' Kennedy!"

Those things are fixable, but I think that if you look at the closing days of the Blumenthal/McMahon race, you can see how hard Linda struggled to connect with voters -- and how hard it is to gain traction when nobody has more than a surface relationship with the candidate  ("free gear" GOTV to the sub-set of voters that are wrestling fans? "Stand up for WWE"? Yes, that really was her closing argument!)

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

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by: mattw @ Wed Dec 22, 2010 at 02:54:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, I don't think Ted Jr. can win the nomination... (0.00 / 0)

But he can be part of the problem.

Given a 1 in 10 shot of honoring his Dad's legacy, why wouldn't he?

And don't discount the power of the Kennedy name in a fractured field.

Again, my hope is that Susie wakes up to reality, Ted measures risk against reward for the rest of us, and that Murphy and Courtney flip a coin, (if they have to!)

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by: AndersonScooper @ Wed Dec 22, 2010 at 03:57:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who is Gary Collins? (0.00 / 0)

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by: thomashooker @ Tue Dec 21, 2010 at 16:23:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

GC (0.00 / 0)

President of the Council for a Livable World. Interesting guy.  

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

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by: mattw @ Tue Dec 21, 2010 at 22:31:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Two words for Chris: (4.00 / 1)

"DO IT!!!!"

Connecticut Bob

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by: Bob Adams @ Tue Dec 21, 2010 at 21:34:28 PM UTC

impact of governorship and tax vote/Bernie Sanders viral filibuster (4.00 / 2)

We are unaccustomed to factoring guber appointments into Dem equation, but this is the first time in 20 years a Dem governor has had opportunity to elevate regionally-known reps and Senators into statewide household names.  Will this change the equation in terms of who could run?

The tax vote may be a pivotal part of an anti-incumbent sentiment and actually an arrow in the quiver of an outsider candidate.  

When a Senate "filibuster" video goes wildly viral, progressives should take notice.  It is unpredictable what a principled, seasoned, competent person with an unquestionable record (in action not rhetoric) of standing for the grassrootsmajority  could do in 2012 if they began raising their profile now.

The stars (high unemployment, failure to reinvent economy, pro-corporate obstructionistic or reactionary Congress, damage to social security funds for short term gain, egregiously poor national dialogue in a time when environment and economy require substance and reason, not smoke blowing) may align for a rare opportunity streaking across the senatorial election prospects sky.

FWIW.

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by: greenpeas @ Wed Dec 22, 2010 at 15:19:49 PM UTC

hey GP (4.00 / 1)

I just wanted to say that I've enjoyed the recent increase in your long-form commentary here at MLN.

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

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by: mattw @ Wed Dec 22, 2010 at 16:58:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

thanks, mattw (4.00 / 1)

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by: greenpeas @ Wed Dec 22, 2010 at 17:29:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I concur (n/t) (0.00 / 0)

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by: Sue @ Thu Dec 23, 2010 at 11:19:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Me three! (0.00 / 0)

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by: saramerica @ Thu Dec 23, 2010 at 21:22:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Senate (0.00 / 0)

  I believe that Murphy and Courtney would be the front runners...both have similiar progressive records in the House and are well liked  in DC and in Ct.Kennedy  may be a nice enough  fellow but he hasnt  been tested by an electoral run as have Murphy and Courtney.Nor  do we know what Kennedy's positions are..is he a progressive,moderate or a conservative? In addition if Kennedy  "self funds" because he is a multi-millionaire,the folks here in CT  dont take that too kindly..just ask  Lamont...McMahon and  a host of other multi millionaires that lost.This is not a state that takes kindly to self annointed folks  who feel entitled  to be a Senator  or in Congress simply because of their name and financial situation. Susan has killed  herself and Collins has no chance.I suspect that either Murphy  or Courtney will announce and the other will get out of the way  for the one who announces...or...both will announce  and  further down the road  the one  who hasnt  caught as much support and steam  will give way  to the one  who has.

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by: BruceRubenstein2 @ Fri Dec 24, 2010 at 14:55:05 PM UTC