Great News! PPP Poll: Joe Lieberman Trailing Very Badly In 2012 Re-Election Bid

Potentials? (0.00 / 0)

This leads to interesting speculation about who will run, thus I will lend my submissions.

In no particular order; serious contenders in bold:

Chris Murphy -- Clear "political" frontrunner; needs to dispatch with Caligirui.  A big victory in a month will solidify his bona fides, a small victory opens the door for others, a loss makes it practically impossible to seriously consider the jump.

William Tong -- Young, smart, good policy portfolio, won a House seat in a Republican district, finalist for U.S. Attorney, liked by Washington folks.  Very low statewide name ID and raising money could problems

Susan Bysiewicz -- Gave up her base, but still very popular within the party.  Would need to seriously rehab her image.

Ned Lamont -- Unlikely, but extremely well-known and has the money.  Buyer's remorse would help boost potential campaign.

Gary Collins -- Unknown, founder of the Collins Foundation, attorney at GE.  Would also have serious problems raising money.

Gary Holder-Winfield -- Future Speaker of CT General Assembly material, but appears to want DeStefano first.

Elizabeth Esty -- Brilliant, thoughtful, rising-star, husband is a leader in environmental policy.  Needs to beat Adinolfi in a rematch of 2008.

Jonathan Harris -- Like S.B., gave up his base.  Likely will find a home in the Malloy administration.

Merrick Albert -- Graceful exit in 2010, smart, tenacious, good story.  Raising money will again be an issue.

And, of course, Ted Kennedy, Jr. -- He has the profile to shrink the field, is campaigning for Dems now (thus there could potentially be favors to return), nostalgia will boost his campaign and he'll likely have the quiet support of the White House.  Major concern: does he have the fire in the belly?

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by: CTBullMoose @ Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 18:46:59 PM UTC

I would say (0.00 / 0)

My number one choice (for the Democratic Contender): Chris Murphy- I might have a bias, being from CT-05 and all, but I think he would be a fantastic senator. He's not afraid to be a real progressive.
My last choice for the Democratic Contender: Susan Bysiewicz. Her jumping from Secretary of State, to Governor candidate, to attempting to be a AG candidate, and now to Senate candidate is both embarrassing and disheartening. Susan doesn't seem to care what her position is as long as she has one.

People I think will run:
Murphy, Bysiewicz, Albert, Gary Holder-Winfield

People who I don't think will run:
Ned Lamont- Ned might have the benefit of buyers remorse against a Lieberman match up, but first he has to make it through Murphy and Bysiewicz.
Any lesser names- Murphy are Bysiewicz going to be the people to beat. I expect exploratory committees until Murphy and Bysiewicz announce.

The wild card in all of this: Where will Lieberman caucus in 2011?
 If Democrats lose a few seats (2-3) pushing them away from breaking a filibuster, but not close enough for the GOP to take the senate they may (hopefully) come to the senses and boot Lieberman out of the caucus. Not only would they not have to put up with him, but it would help the Democrat in 2012.
 If Democrats lose a lot of seats (within reach of the Senate, or taking the Senate) I wouldn't put it past Lieberman to switch caucus's, especially with poll numbers this bad.  

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by: MBethel @ Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 19:05:41 PM UTC

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Another Interesting Scenario.... (0.00 / 0)

If Himes loses, that will allow some, like Tong or Lamont, to refocus their attention on Congress.

Moreover, if Lieberman's numbers are truly this bad, the R's will run a "serious" candidate, which makes putting together the coalition that Lieberman needs to win increasingly more difficult.  I suspect this reality will be the focus of any and all deliberations by Lieberman and his inner circle.

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by: CTBullMoose @ Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 19:21:45 PM UTC

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Himes is winning (0.00 / 0)

He's up 2 points today in a poll by a Republican-leaning pollster, and just under 50%. My guess would be that understates his real position.

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by: itskevin @ Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 21:34:13 PM UTC

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My take (0.00 / 0)

Chris Murphy -- The logical choice given all the talk about him doing it. My fear is the current logical choice proves that may not be a great way of doing things.

William Tong -- Name recognition! Dynamic in many ways but he has no name and doesn't seem to be working on it.

Susan Bysiewicz -- This woman is like the terminator she'll be back.

Ned Lamont -- I think that while many of us love Ned we have had enough.

Gary Collins -- ...

Gary Holder-Winfield -- He doesn't want to be the mayor he is being pulled that way. Like Susan he's like a terminator and a progressive one.  

Elizabeth Esty -- Like her not sure she would hold up throughout the campaign

Jonathan Harris -- Great choice! Smart, personable he would do well on the campaign trail.

Merrick Alpert -- Money may be an issue but he has a lot of potential. We should have given him more of a chance this year.

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by: formerlurker @ Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 22:07:24 PM UTC

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Don't forget... (0.00 / 0)

that Lieberman is also a prospective candidate. It looks like he'd get stomped in a general election, but does anyone doubt that 20% of the Democratic primary electorate would back him?

No offense to all those state reps in the mix, but they are not contenders.  

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

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by: mattw @ Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 23:23:04 PM UTC

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I like Harris too.... (0.00 / 0)

But there's no one who would take his campaign seriously.  It's been made pretty clear at the Capitol that he was having trouble making ends meet on a legislator's salary, and with a new family his priorities have changed.  I can't imagine he'll be able to hold-up over the long haul.  That said, he MIGHT be able to raise enough money in the 1st quarter to stay in the game, but I don't think he has the donor base for the long haul.  In the end, no natural constituency and no base will doom his candidacy.

I think Winfield's presence on MLF clouds your judgment a bit.   He, like Tong, will have little-to-no name ID out of the gate.  He's got options, for sure, but I'm not sure he's all that dissimilar from Tong in terms of political hurdles to meet.  Head-to-head, Tong has the advantage in that he's a favorite of the IAFF.

Whoever mentioned Jepsen is crazy.  He lost L.G., potentially is gonna win A.G. and then will run for Senate?  It's no surprise that he dislikes Susan Bysiewicz and I cannot foresee him adopting her impetuous nature to seek any and all political offices so soon.

With all due respect, Matt, I think there's room in this field (and plenty of time) for a dark horse to emerge.

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by: CTBullMoose @ Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 12:24:31 PM UTC

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Mary Glassman (0.00 / 0)

I think she could be a contender. Murphy and Bysiewicz will probably run though, and honestly if I were any of those other people I would not want any part of that race.

Alpert was rejected and hasn't kept a profile since his graceful exit. I imagine he's done.

I think Kennedy is thinking about it and there might be some support but his inexperience will be an issue. Connecticut voters consistently reject outsiders. The closest to an outsider we have is Himes and he was chair of his DTC.


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by: Matt Zagaja @ Mon Oct 11, 2010 at 16:43:28 PM UTC

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How Could I Forget Mary... (0.00 / 0)

She's a gamer, no doubt about it.  But she's lost two statewide races already.  There's room for her at the table, but I'm not sure she's best-suited to launch another underdog campaign.

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by: CTBullMoose @ Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 17:49:39 PM UTC

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Never, Ever (4.00 / 2)

Never underestimate Joe Lieberman's survival skills.

For starters, if the Republicans take the Senate this year (G-d forbid), Joe could switch sides ("I didn't leave the party, the party left me," I can hear him say) and then run as a Republican in 2012, in which case he'd be a formidable opponent.

Unless, of course, he chooses to retire and spend his golden years suckling at the teat of Big Pharma beside Hadassah.

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by: BranfordBoy @ Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 20:58:58 PM UTC

Republicans would cheer (0.00 / 0)

for a couple months, then they'd find more conservative alternatives and take him out in the primary. He'd be the Specter of the Republicans. There's no way CT Republicans, in a closed primary, would let Joe sneak through, given his pro-choice record, leadership on DADT repeal, and environmental apostasy, not to mention his votes for health care reform, the stimulus, and financial reform.

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by: itskevin @ Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 21:32:42 PM UTC

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He's tried that already (0.00 / 0)

Recall that in early 2007 he talked to Mitch McConnell about changing sides and he was told that he would not retain his  seniority or ranking member status.  He was told to go fish by his Republican buddies.  And in 2012 there will be too many Republicans hoping for the job, and they really don't like Lieberman- if they did they would have made him veep in 2008.  He was useful to them in 2006; he won't be useful in 2012.

A third of Democrats voted for him in 2006, which got him to barely 50%.  With just 20% voting for him this time, and with a majority of independents against him, he's toast.  We now know that he lied through his teeth about being a life-long Democrat, about wanting a Democratic congress, about supporting a Democrat for president.  We all know he's a bald-faced liar now.  So he's finished.  Period.  No survival skills this time.

Jepsen could be a candidate with Murphy.  Tong is too conservative.  Bysiewicz shot herself in the foot repeatedly this time, and that won't be forgotten.

Murphy is the odds-on favorite.

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by: thomashooker @ Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 03:02:08 AM UTC

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The difference may be (0.00 / 0)

That the GOP may be within striking difference of the Senate this year, as compared to 2007

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by: MBethel @ Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 16:37:28 PM UTC

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Bomb Iran? (0.00 / 0)

Can we recall this guy before somebody gets hurt?

http://www.thenation.com/blog/...

The problem is that he thinks the GOP is already in control and he can get all macho again.

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by: mick @ Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 02:00:41 AM UTC

A few sitting D Presidents have lost CT (0.00 / 0)

Obama could be the first Democratic President to lose Connecticut in the general election.

Carter 1980
Truman 1948
(in between, only Johnson 1964 fit the criteria)
Wilson, 1916, but let's face it, totally different ballgame

Also, Ford carried CT in 1976, Reagan carried CT in 1984, Bush I did as well in 1988.

So in 1972, 76, 80, 84 and 88, CT went GOP.  Those days are mercifully gone.

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by: Russell's 10 @ Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 03:27:30 AM UTC

Susie B was definitely talking about running (4.00 / 1)

at the Greenwich DTC picnic. She was semi-coy but practically announced to the people I was sitting with.  

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by: saramerica @ Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 12:16:33 PM UTC

Uhboy! (0.00 / 0)

Doesn't make sense.  The (conservative) media will make hash of her run for AG without having served a day as an attorney.  

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by: thomashooker @ Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 15:09:33 PM UTC

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Oh yeah (0.00 / 0)

She's already running. A few months ago she was having"Thank you" parties across the state.  

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by: MBethel @ Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 16:38:54 PM UTC

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3 times (0.00 / 0)

 As much as I like Lamont the fact is  that he has lost 3 races  and probably  is finished as candidate material.I can see him making a huge contribution to politics  in another way,thru a  think tank  operation that he has at CCSU.

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by: BruceRubenstein2 @ Fri Oct 08, 2010 at 14:12:25 PM UTC

I sat next to Rep. Esty... (0.00 / 0)

for three years on my Town Council.

If she and Murphy are both reelected and Chris runs for Senate, I expect she would defer to him... and then run for the open CT-5 seat.  My guess is that if she's reelected this year, she'll be running for either the CT-5 or Lieberman's seat in 2012.

But I recommend no one underestimate her.  She won't tire and she won't be short on money... if she chooses to go for it.

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by: Tim White @ Mon Oct 11, 2010 at 15:33:48 PM UTC

Delightful... (0.00 / 0)

The prospect of an Esty- Chris Donovan primary in the 5th....

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by: CTBullMoose @ Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 17:51:32 PM UTC

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