Connecticut Senate: A Slow, Steady Move to Toss Up
The contest between Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon has been gradually closing over the past few months, and is now in single digits, according to some polls.
A Quinnipiac University poll (September 8-12 of 875 likely voters) gave Blumenthal a six-point lead over McMahon, 51 percent to 45 percent...
Democrats countered the release of the Quinnipiac numbers with a survey conducted by Hamilton Campaigns for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee at the same time the Quinnipiac poll was in the field (September 8-12 of 800 likely voters). This poll gave Blumenthal a 15-point lead over McMahon, 54 percent to 39 percent. Blumenthal's job ratings were 70 percent to 27 percent, and his favorable/unfavorable ratings were 61 percent to 34 percent, which were higher than President Obama's 55-percent to 43 percent ratings. McMahon had a favorable rating of 48 percent and an unfavorable rating of 46 percent. Democratic strategists further argue that they've seen no erosion in Blumenthal's job approval or favorable ratings over the course of the last few months.
We don't doubt the Hamilton Campaigns' numbers; it is a respected firm with a solid track record. At the same time, though, we are aware of Republican polling that has the race in the high single digits, though neither the McMahon campaign, nor the National Republican Senatorial Committee has released a survey. And, when all the polling taken in the race is considered, it is clear that McMahon has made slow but steady and consistent progress against Blumenthal. According to the Pollster.com trend line, McMahon now trails the Attorney General by seven points, 43 percent to 51 percent, in all general election ballots tests conducted in the race.
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Much of McMahon's progress can be attributed to her constant presence on the air with television ads that have been running for months across the state, including in the expensive New York media market. Not only will she remain on the air for the next seven weeks, but the campaign's buys are likely to increase. Blumenthal has run ads intermittently, though they've been more consistent over the past couple of weeks. The ads generally focus on his accomplishments, particularly when they impact average voters, and work to portray him as a fighter for Connecticut who is not afraid to take on big business. He has yet to take on McMahon, but that will undoubtedly change soon. President Obama is headlining a fundraiser for Blumenthal in the Nutmeg State today, which may signal the start of Blumenthal's attacks on the Republican.
Democrats believe that McMahon's saturation media effort and the pile of glossy brochures that have landed in voters' mailboxes will backfire as she suffers from overexposure. They also argue that the normally staid voters of Connecticut will ultimately decide that they can't support a candidate with roots in a colorful industry like wrestling. They say that ultimately voters' concerns about McMahon's record will trump any concerns they have about President Obama's agenda. This, too, might be true to a degree. The larger point, though, is that with seven weeks left to go, McMahon has made this a race and Democrats' best efforts to stall her candidacy have not worked. This, of course, could certainly change as they start airing negative ads against her, but for now McMahon is in the hunt, handing Democrats a race in an expensive blue state that they weren't expecting.
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