By analyzing polling from firms that have released both registered voter and likely voter results, we have found a gap between the two of about 4 points, on average, favoring the Republican. Therefore, a registered voter poll that shows an 8-point lead for the Republican is in fact treated by our model as showing the equivalent of a 12-point lead.
Now, let's look again at those two polls in Connecticut. Quinnipiac's August poll gave Mr. Blumenthal a 10-point lead among registered voters; their poll this morning gave him a 6-point lead among likely voters. In other words, we see a 4-point shift in the Republican candidate's favor - exactly what we should have expected based our previous analysis of likely voter polls.
But the shift reflects the change in methodology: it provides no evidence that the race is tightening.
But I failed to make an important distinction: This morning's survey included likely voters, while past Q polls included registered voters. They are, according to Q poll Director Doug Schwartz, apples and oranges.
...
In other words, comparisons to previous polls of registered voters are pointless.
Had she said, apples and Buicks, I would have put it on a t-shirt...
Quinnipiac released a new Senate poll this morning, showing Blumenthal leading McMahon 51-46 among likely voters (the first time a likely voter model has been employed for this race) and the press reaction has been interesting:
CTCapitolReport has a screaming headline that, "MCMAHON CUTS IT TO 6," the CTPost writes that, "Republican Linda McMahon has virtually erased a once-daunting lead held by Democrat Richard Blumenthal, closing to within 6 points in their U.S. Senate race," and the Courant/Fox61 (no link) text alert I got this morning declares, "Q-Poll shows Blumenthal's lead over McMahon shrinking." Even the CTMirror, which has displayed in the past that they actually get it, writes that the race "continues to tighten."
UPDATE: Capitol Watch wades in, "Republican Linda McMahon continues to slice into Democrat Richard Blumenthal's once overwhelming lead in the U.S. Senate race." CW then doubles down, "McMahon has been steadily chipping away at Blumenthal's popularity for months. In the March 17 Q poll, he trounced her by a 2-1 margin; in May, immediately after the controversy over his Vietnam war misstatements, Blumenthal still led by 27 percentage points. By August, McMahon was within 10 and now she has cut his lead to 6." Sigh.
UPDATE: CTNewsJunkie shows how easy it is to report on something like this accurately:
The first Quinnipiac University poll of the general election shows Democrat Richard Blumenthal leading Republican Linda McMahon by six points amongst likely voters in the race for the U.S. Senate.
A Quinnipiac University poll in August showed Blumenthal leading McMahon by 10 points, but Poll Director Doug Schwartz cautioned about comparing the two polls since today's includes likely voters and previous polls screened for registered voters.
See guys? Not that hard!
So does the race continue to tighten? I don't know! But I do know that this poll, despite the media reports to the contrary, doesn't continue to show anything (if this starts to sound familiar, it should).
As Doug Schwartz makes pretty clear in the memo that goes along with this poll, "This is the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University's first general election likely voter survey in Connecticut in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters." (emphasis mine)
Just to clarify, I'm not making an argument either way on whether this race is tightening or not tightening. Just that this poll, the first of its kind to switch from a Registered Voter model to a Likely Voter model (hat tip to CTBob for the link), doesn't actually show what the media is trying to say that it shows.
What is interesting about the poll, and that I haven't seen reported yet, is the insight it gives into what Quinnipiac expects the likely voter model to look like.
Remember, the voter registration ratio in Connecticut (as of October 2009) is very roughly 38:19:43 (D:R:U), and in 2006, the last GOV/SEN election, the actual turnout was roughly 38:26:36 (D:R:U).
Using the poll's results that Bluemnthal leads among Democrats 87-10, McMahon leads among Republicans 91-9, and Unaffiliateds are fairly evenly split with Blumenthal getting 47 and McMahon 46, its easy to roughly figure out what the poll would find if the likely voter screen reflected either the registration ratio or the 2002 turnout ratio:
Registration:
Blumenthal 57% - McMahon 43%
2006 Turnout:
Blumenthal 54% - McMahon 46%
Still too close for comfort, but a little better.
From the back of my napkin, you can back into the likely voter ratio that Quinnipiac used to get a result of 51-45 (in addition to backing into things like this being horribly imprecise, Quinnipiac obviously has undecided voters and what I did above doesn't really, so add a grain of salt to the pile you already have collected):
very roughly - 32:28:40 (D:R:U)
Given their registration advantage in the state, its pretty clear that Ds and Rs showing up on election day in roughly equal numbers would be a pretty big GOTV disaster for the Dems - but even at those disastrous levels, it still might not be enough to put McMahon over the top.
Either way, the election will come down to the ability of Democrats to get out their voters, despite a sizable gap in enthusiasm.
MLN is powered by