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My Left Nutmeg

CT GOV: Lamont ahead by 5

by: ctblogger

Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 06:49:32 AM EDT


( - promoted by Scarce)

CTMirror:
The races for the Democratic and Republican gubernatorial nominations have dramatically tightened, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Democrat Ned Lamont's 9-percentage point lead over Dan Malloy has been nearly halved in three weeks, while Republican Tom Foley's 35-point cushion over Michael Fedele has shrunk to 15 points.

[...]

Lamont leads Malloy, 45 percent to 40 percent, with 14 undecided. On July 15, Lamont led, 46 percent to 37 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

"Dan Malloy has inched closer to Ned Lamont.  Lamont still has the edge, but with 14 percent of voters undecided and 43 percent who still could change their mind, it is close enough that Malloy could pull it off," Schwartz said.


As of 6:45AM, the poll is not available online...more later.

6:50 AM: View the .pdf of the poll below the fold.

7:00 AM: Although no one should be surprised in this race tightening (the primary is next week), two weeks of negative ads from Malloy (starting on July 23) gained him a total of 4 points in a poll that has a margin of error of 3.1 points. Lamont response ad started on 27 and negative ads didn't start until July 30 (a day after the poll started).

Other interesting tidbits from the poll.

1. Among likely voters, the deciding factor in the selection of their candidate of choice is...

Pos_on_Issues

2. And when it comes to the issues, Lamont beats Malloy by 6 points (outside the margin or error)

Lamont_issues

3. Among likely Democrats, when it comes to which candidate voters believe has the best chance in winning the general election, Lamont beats Malloy wins 46 to 29 percent.

Win_General

One thing is certain about the poll, voters care about where the candidates stand on issues and electability. Congressman John Larson echoes this belief in his comment to the CT Mirror yesterday:

Larson said constituents in his hometown of East Hartford want to hear Malloy and Lamont offer solutions to the state's problems, not attack each other's character.

"It's just discouraging," said Larson, an unsuccessful candidate for governor in 1994. "When I walk around and come in here, people will say, 'Hey, we don't hear anything about these solutions.'"

Unfortunately, in his response to the Q-Poll, the candidate Larson is supporting has gone tone deaf.

This race is tightening because as people really begin making up their minds, they're moving to Dan.  They know he turned around a City, and they think he can turn around a State.  They know Dan Malloy has the right kind of experience to be Governor.  They're moving away from Ned because they don't want a CEO to run this state like a business, and they want this to be an election, not an auction.  Ned is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars a day into this race - about $8 million so far - and people are beginning to reject it.  Ned thinks this is his state, and that he can play by his own rules - typical Wall Street, CEO behavior.  Ned thinks he can fool people with a TV ad that's been called the 'the worst smear of the campaign so far,' as long as he spends enough money on it.  On August 10th, Ned's going to find out that democracy isn't for sale in the Democratic Party.

In his response to the poll, Lamont strikes a different tune.
Despite a two-week barrage of Dan Malloy's false, negative ads and his repetition of four-year-old lies about Ned and his company, Connecticut voters still know that Ned Lamont has the best experience to create jobs and help their families.  By a nearly two to one margin, Connecticut Democrats know that Ned is the candidate who has what takes to beat the Republicans, take back the Governor's mansion, and get our state moving forward," said Lamont Communications Director Justine Sessions.

While Dan's campaign grows more desperate and erratic every day, we're sticking to our strategy and talking to the people of Connecticut about the issue that they care about most: jobs. We've got a robust field operation that will turn out our voters on election day, and with just 5 days to go, the only poll that matters to us is next Tuesday.

11:50 AM: CTNewsJunkie has more (including video from Doug Schwartz's and Dan Malloy presser at the Capitol.  
ctblogger :: CT GOV: Lamont ahead by 5
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CT GOV: Lamont ahead by 5 | 114 comments
Nearly a week of solid negative campaigning... (4.00 / 4)
...before Ned finally decided to fight back, and all it got Dan was 4 lousy points. I guess a man's soul is worth four points.  Maybe if Ned stayed 100% positive and refused to fight Dan on his own level, Malloy might have made a serious gain.  

But Ned wisely refused to take Malloy's attacks lying down, and so he protected the larger part of his lead. Look for Ned to win by more than five points, as Malloy's incessant negativity will finally turn off even his most ardent supporters.

Five days to go. This is looking pretty good for Governor Lamont.  

Connecticut Bob

But who's getting turned of (0.00 / 0)
Malloy's negatives went up by 4 points. 8 to 12
Lamont's went up a 6 from 12 to 18. That means practically one and five voters have a negative opinion of Ned.  
[ Parent ]
During my phone banking, I came across a couple voters who were Lamont supporters (4.00 / 2)
but had gone undecided due to the negative attacks.  Once I pointed out to them that Malloy was regurgitating Lieberman's 2006 lies about Lamont and Lamont's attacks on Malloy were based upon reports from the media, they came back to the Lamont camp.

The problem with negative attacks is that it does lower the candidate's favorables and Malloy accomplished that with Lamont, but not enough to turn the election for him.

[ Parent ]
Bingo (4.00 / 1)
That's exactly what the poll indicates. People are sick of the negative ads from both candidates and want to hear more about how Malloy and Lamont would address the state's problems.

Both candidates unfavorables went up since the last poll. Malloy went up from 8 to 12 in a poll where Ned's negative ads started a day before the poll was conducted. Malloy's attack ad on Lamont saturated the airwaves by the time the ad started. If anything, the increase in unfavorables for both candidates most likely indicates that people are sick of the negative ads.

[ Parent ]
Malloy's favorables are static and lower than Lamonts's (4.00 / 1)
so it looks to me that the negative attacks between the two is a wash and with Lamont having more funds to air his positive ads along with his attack ads on Malloy, Lamont is in a better position to win the primary.

Malloy needed a big win from the debate on Tuesday so he could get free publicity from the CT media about his great performance, but instead Lamont improved his performance and either was deemed the winner of the debate or nullified any chance of Malloy being declared the better candidate.

[ Parent ]
Those are nominal numbers for both (4.00 / 1)
Democrats by and large like both Malloy and Lamont. If anything those poll numbers prove that Malloy hasn't gone negative enough in order to change the make-up of this race, if that was his intention. Perhaps he waited too long, or just didn't have the requisite funds to go hard negative against Lamont for a longer period of time.

[ Parent ]
Everyone please read the full Pazniokas piece... (4.00 / 3)
Malloy gets a corned beef sandwich named after himself. How nice!

But instead of being gracious he whines loudly that if Ned had his own sandwich, it'd be of caviar. wtf?

Hey Dan, a little more whine to go with your baloney? Is that your plan for beating Foley? Whine everyone to death?

Sourpuss (4.00 / 1)
That's not the image a candidate wants to project in the remaining days of a campaign. You want to be upbeat, positive and confident, or at least appear that way in public. That's another reminder of the recent subdued, kind of dour debate performance by Malloy. I'm told the private polls paint a different picture than the more optimistic Q poll above.
[ Parent ]
Link to Paz piece (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
Wow (0.00 / 0)
A 4 point pickup for Malloy.That's 2 points per son he threw under the bus to get those points.

I bet if Roy O told Malloy he could pick up four more points if he was willing to make his wife and mom have to live as part of the homeless community in our country he'd jump at the chance.


I can think of exactly *ONE* person who has mentioned the sons (0.00 / 0)
and guess what? it isn't Malloy.
[ Parent ]
Can yiu mention one thing I mentioned about them that (4.00 / 1)
I haven't provided a link to substantiate?

If cts Democrats are stupid enough to make a guy tailored made for defeat their nominee they'll lose.If you're voting for Dan Malloy you're handing Chris Healy a gift of a candidate with no money and a family history that makes him unelectable.

[ Parent ]
I never said you were incorrect (3.83 / 6)
I said it was wrong. For you to hate Malloy's negative attacks and then post trash about his children is completely hypocritical.
[ Parent ]
No it's not (4.00 / 2)
Dan Himself made it fair game.I'm not thrilled he did but he decided the only way he could win was to go negative.When he did that made his character issues (which are what his sons problems reflect) became fair game.

If he is the Dem nominee I guarentee Folry will spend at least 2 million on Ads featuring the Malloy Boys and I guarentee it will work.


[ Parent ]
Hey ctblogger! (0.00 / 0)
Wanna make a comment on Keith's typos the way you slammed Mike Brown - a dyslexic - for his poor spelling?

I know I know: You are Fair and Balanced...

"I am not a Blogger...But I play one on the internet."

[ Parent ]
I do it on purpose (4.00 / 4)
just so those of you with college degrees can feel you didn't totally waste your money.
[ Parent ]
westconn (0.00 / 0)
doesn't count. :-)

The question is not what you are, we already determined that, we are now negotiating price.
electrealdemocrats.com Online since 3/07 -- TimetogoJoe.com Online s
[ Parent ]
from a couple days ago (4.00 / 4)
da0802 posted this:

All scurrilous attacks are not equal, and you can wring your hands over personal attacks all you want, but appealing to racial, religious, and ethnic fears and anger is a prescription for grave danger for our country. In the presence of the strongest protections for free speech in the world, all we have to fight this danger is moral suasion. We ought to use it more often, and more consistently.

--Howard Dean

Obviously aggressive counterattack is a different tool than moral suasion. I prefer the latter and have criticized messages about Malloy's kids here on a number of occasions.

Being a hypocrite would be tut-tutting the negative attacks -- Keith didn't do that, he just punched right back.  

At the same time, I'm not being asked to contemplate ctkeith for governor. He knows that he is making a contemptible argument which is similar to a different contemptible argument -- only his is not being made by a candidate for the top elected position in the state using a couple million dollars. His point (inartfully made IMO) is that with Malloy as the Democratic nominee, there would be no ethical high ground left from which to defend against these attacks. And in that, he is both correct and right.

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

[ Parent ]
well said (0.00 / 0)
but I don't agree with your assessment of Keith's argument.  I haven't seen him say that "there would be no ethical high ground left from which to defend against these attacks" - I have seen him spamming diaries with comments about Malloy's son getting arrested. Very different.
[ Parent ]
Stop it (0.00 / 0)
you and every Malloy supporter who new of the Hate Crime story tried and are still trying to perpatrate a fraud on the Democrats in this state.You got called on it and all you got in response is a collective WHINE!!

Heres the Link

http://www.fairfieldcitizenonl...

Explain how Malloy defends HIS action,or lack there of,whem Foley spends 2 million splashing this EVERYWHERE!!

Otherwise admit the obvious,MALLOY IS UNELECTABLE in the General election and may well drag down Blumenthal with him were he our nominee.

[ Parent ]
no (4.00 / 1)
and your accusation against me - that I am "trying to perpatrate a fraud on the Democrats in this state" - is reckless and offensive.

I knew he had a son with legal issues.  As you have pointed out time and time again, it is public record. So how this is supposed to have been some terrible secret is beyond me.  When I first heard about it, my thought was that this must cause him and his family great pain, because everyone hopes for the best for their children; I still feel this way. I left it at that. I wish you were mature enough to do the same. I suspect that regardless of the outcome of the primary, you will regret the tone you took.

I am giving up on this, however, and if you choose to continue to attack a man for the deeds of his children, such comments will no longer merit a response from me.

[ Parent ]
I attacked Dan Malloy for HIS ACTIONS (4.00 / 1)
If he used taxpayer money to hush up a hate crime you committed it would be just as wrong as the hush money he had used to cover up his sons hate crime.

The fact his son committed a hate crime also reflects badly on Malloy just as it would if my son or yours committed that hate crime.

I know if it was my son a public apology would have been the first,but far from the only,thing I'd have demanded of him.

Malloy chose a coverup and hush money as his route.

[ Parent ]
your inability to understand (0.00 / 0)
is mind-boggling.

That, or you're doing it on purpose.

NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT THE KIDS.  PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT MAYOR DANNEL MALLOY'S UNETHICAL ACTIONS/INACTIONS IN RESPONSE TO WHAT HIS KIDS DID.

[ Parent ]
I wish what you said is true (4.00 / 6)
But Keith, at least, IS talking about the kids.

If someone uses public money to cover up a family issue, that is wrong and a valid point to raise. If there were significant evidence that Malloy covered up for his son, then that is a serious offense.

BUT.

That is not what Keith has been talking about. Instead, the comments have been in the vein of "Malloy's sons are bad people; don't vote for him."

For example:

http://www.dailykos.com/commen...

"Malloy 2 sons did some interesting things too"

No mention of Dan's part in it.

http://myleftnutmeg.com/showCo...

Blames Dan for their poor upbringing because of his own learning disability, no mention of a coverup.

http://myleftnutmeg.com/showCo...

Link to article about the arrest, no mention of a coverup.

http://myleftnutmeg.com/showCo...

Just plain snark

http://myleftnutmeg.com/showCo...

Calls son a drug addict and felon, no mention of what this has to do with Dan.

Now, when we have seen references to Dan's actual involvement in anything, they have been lies:

This comment - http://myleftnutmeg.com/showCo... links to an article that faults the Stamford Board of Ed for not investigating thoroughly because the Mayor's son was involved.  This does not say Malloy intervened in any way. That is an assumption Keith fabricated. When the BOE settled the suit, suddenly that amount becomes "Malloy uses taxpayer money to coverup for son" who was 14. Records are sealed because he was a minor. The money paid was the settlement from a bullying case that was resolved by the BOE. Dan did not "spend" it.

The same article is linked in this comment:
http://myleftnutmeg.com/showCo...

Which again accuses Dan of "spending" taxpayer money (when it was the Board of Ed that paid out the $$).

Again, the same article is linked here:

http://myleftnutmeg.com/showCo...

And again the settlement is called "spending" used to cover up for Dan.

I swore I wouldn't talk about this again, but you are just wrong.

There is no evidence that Dan was in any way involved in a coverup.  You guys sound like birthers when you make up crap like this.

You have two options:

1: you are saying that Dan's 14-year-old son is a bad person  and a direct reflection on his capability to be governor.  You think it is fair to attack his kid and use that to boost Ned.

or,

2: you are willing to distort the facts of a bullying case to imply that Malloy was involved in a coverup that is a complete fiction.

Keith - nothing you have said about the "hush money" or "cover up" is true.  Dan was not directly involved in the case.  Did you read the article you link to, or do you just cherry pick the numbers you want?

I can't believe that the same people peddling this trash are so worked up about the 70% of Ned's workforce distortion. I condemned that ad because the smear is bullsh*t - it was when Lieberman used it and it is now that Dan is using it - but you guys have gone so far beyond that.

/rant

[ Parent ]
Halarious (0.00 / 0)
the time you just spent typing that comment adds up to more time than Dan Malloy spent in the last 6 yrs thinking about what efffect his running for Governor would have on his own kids.
[ Parent ]
This is a great rebuttal, thanks! (0.00 / 0)
It is shameful that that charge is making the rounds here. Sickening, really.
[ Parent ]
what is so hard (4.00 / 2)
for people to understand?  It's not about the children, it's about DANNEL MALLOY.
[ Parent ]
fine (0.00 / 0)
then stop talking about the children. see how easy that is?
[ Parent ]
nobody IS talking about the children. (0.00 / 0)
We're talking about Mayor Dannel Malloy.
[ Parent ]
whoever Danny is (0.00 / 0)
care to explain why this is a troll comment?
[ Parent ]
seriously, I would love an explanation (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
sorry I goofed (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
no worries (0.00 / 0)
Thanks :)
[ Parent ]
I think you can go back and change it (4.00 / 1)
I've never done it (because I'm so goddamned perfect all the time!) but I think you can go back and click on the pull down list again and change it.  Anyone know for sure?

Connecticut Bob
[ Parent ]
Thanks Bob I fixed it. (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
hooray (0.00 / 0)
we can still get along.

let's start some sort of anti-McMahon contest next...

[ Parent ]
it's too bad they don't poll LG (0.00 / 0)
After what happened in the 06 primary, you'd think it would be included at least once
Glassman Went Real Negative (0.00 / 0)
Glassman went real negative.  

". . . not a a career politician . . ."

She's been running for AG for 4 years.  Isn't she a selectperson or something?

[ Parent ]
Glassman is running for Lt Governor, not Attorney General (0.00 / 0)
You can't even get your politicians straight.

And show me how Glassman went real negative.

[ Parent ]
I stand corrected. (0.00 / 0)
Made a mistake.  But she HAS been running for LG for 4 years.  Don't get so personal.  Thanks for the spell checking.

I know you guys like scanned in fliers (mostly Malloy fliers). I was glad to se this one scanned in.  http://bit.ly/aMkZcM

[ Parent ]
Last week's poll (4.00 / 1)
You guys better stop gloating.  That was last week's poll.  Next week's poll (Aug. 10) should be a lot closer.

I don't think all your negative blogging is helping Lamont much.  Oh wait.  Nobody who votes reads this shit.

Malloy needed to win big at Tuesday's debate so he could have gotten free advertising from CT's media (0.00 / 0)
talking about how wonderful he his, but Lamont nixed that by improving his own debate performance.

Malloy has stalled.  He may coast forward a bit more, but then it's downhill for him.

[ Parent ]
Stalled? (0.00 / 0)
Jul 15 - Malloy 37, Lamont 46

Aug 5 - Malloy 40, Lamont 45

I don't know what kind of car you drive, but it looks like Molly is accelerating (+3) and Lamont is stalling (-1).  I mean, when you look at the numbers, it ain't going in the right direction for Lamont.

[ Parent ]
Malloy is broke... (4.00 / 1)
He has no more $$ for media buys, and his post-debate bitterness is good evidence that he thinks his goose is cooked.

Again, I think Dan Malloy made a big mistake in going negative against a much better-funded opponent. Ned will keep hammering away at Dan for a couple of more days, and then still have plenty of reserve to run a battery of positive commercials this weekend going into Tuesday.

The only question is whether Dan will spend money that he doesn't have, in violation of the CEP caps.

[ Parent ]
much better-funded (0.00 / 0)
You mean rich, self funded don't you?
[ Parent ]
Of course Malloy will spend the extra money (0.00 / 0)
..and deal with the consequences of that later. The alternative is to "go dark" in the remaining days of the campaign. No candidate who wants to win would do that.

The reasons for this are obvious too. Lamont had spent about $6mil to the end of July on his campaign, forcing Malloy to use almost all his alloted resources (about $2.5mil).

[ Parent ]
final report today (0.00 / 0)
So we'll see. Wyman spent $237,000 of her funds on TV ads this week, so if any of those are joint ads that spending would need to be matched by Malloy.

The alternative is to "go dark" in the remaining days of the campaign. No candidate who wants to win would do that.

If that's true, it introduces another element -- those vendors that weren't paid before the primary won't be paid unless Malloy wins. That changes the nature of the advice he'd get, and might have something to do with the really over-the-top nature of their public communications for the last week or two.  

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

[ Parent ]
almost nobody... (0.00 / 0)
my guesstimate is ~200 people are actively reading and considering this race. And if the numbers are right about each MOTIVATED voter affecting 4-5 less motivated to the polls, then we are talking about less than 1,000 total votes will come from discussions here on MLN.

The question is not what you are, we already determined that, we are now negotiating price.
electrealdemocrats.com Online since 3/07 -- TimetogoJoe.com Online s
[ Parent ]
You guys flatter yourselves (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
And your snide whining (0.00 / 0)
Goes great with Dan Malloy!

It's humorous that you can come here and say that "all MLN's negative blogging" isn't helping Lamont...

Anyway, I'm not sure who represents the Malloy campaign better, -- you, Sufi or McArdle. (maybe we should have a contest when all is said and done.) But I do not it's great to share cyber-space with you, as your apparent bitterness makes me believe I'm on th right team.

[ Parent ]
Hmm (4.00 / 1)
Nobody who votes reads this shit.

So you're not voting then?

And talk about getting personal! I actually write some of this shit (although I like to think of my stuff as the kernels of corn).

[ Parent ]
Your logic is empicable (0.00 / 0)
However your rhetorical sense is flawed.
[ Parent ]
And I can spell, too! n/t (1.00 / 1)

[ Parent ]
It always comes ton to spelling with you guys (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Ahem (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
he was correcting *himself* (0.00 / 0)
that's actually pretty funny
[ Parent ]
You should refrain from commenting on this particular issue (0.00 / 0)
Your spelling and grammar is pretty weak.  No need to cite particular examples because it's everywhere.  Now how do you feel?
[ Parent ]
you don't vote??? (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
The best news for Lamont in this poll (0.00 / 0)
IMO, is that his lead among women did not diminish -- and in fact, narrowly expanded -- since last month. Women, of course, make up the wide majority of the Democratic party, and are the likelier voters in a low turnout primary. And this is before he started sending out the equal pay mailers.

Among men, Ned's advantage dropped from +14 to +2. That's a serious drop, of course. But I would suggest that Malloy's attacks were effective with the wrong voters.  

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

Scuttlebutt (0.00 / 0)
Gracia internal poll showed Malloy-Lamont race within 1.5 points of each other.
As someone who supports Merrill (2.33 / 3)
how would you get access to Garcias polls?

I think it's time mvbrown joined those others who were invited to leave.

[ Parent ]
bring on the purges! (0.00 / 0)
um, what?
[ Parent ]
You know what we've never heard? (0.00 / 0)
Anything from any of Malloy's polls.  

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...
[ Parent ]
Can he afford polls? (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
How do we all come together to rally around a winner? (0.00 / 0)
 Like many  I am a progressive  who hasnt made up his mind  how  to vote  Tuesday in the primary  for Governor as there are aspects of both that I agree with and aspects  of both that I dont agree with.

One thing that is  very troubling  to me is  the intensity of  the negitivity of both sides here  and it  is hard  for me  to see  how both sides can work together  for the  winner, after  Tuesday night.The curious aspect  to me  is that  when you objectivly look at  what their positions are, there isnt much seperating them policy wise.In addition,  if  you look at  what both say and  compare their policies  with some past Democratic candidates  you would  easilly see that both present aspirants  are running as very moderate Democrats as opposed to past candidates.

I tend to overlook and not pay attention to the trashing of one candidate or another in here and chalk it up  to the fact that some in here are paid guns  for one candidate or another and are not objective or have been a volunteer  for one candidate or another and dearly wish us  to support  one candidate or another.

Democratic Governor (0.00 / 0)
I, for one, will be happy to have a Democratic Governor.  I think highly of Ned but I hope its Dan.  That said, I will support the winner.

Anyone else wiling to make the same declaration?

[ Parent ]
Thus lies the problem for Democrats in the general (0.00 / 0)
You have a very likely scenario where the division is so deep that many Dems will decide to sit out the general election while the GOP (Foley) caters to the indys while dumping record amount of $$$ into his campaign.

Just did two interviews recently on this very topic and talked about this in a post a while back.

IMO, I think we're already at a point of no return.

[ Parent ]
Point of no return (0.00 / 0)
Yea. Remember when Hillary and Barack beat each other up so bad in the Primary and John McCain became President.  

Stand behind whichever Dem who wins.

[ Parent ]
Actually Mike, I remember good Democrats (4.00 / 1)
Pulling Hillary back from the brink of whole-scale destructiveness.

Unfortunately instead of walking Dan back, you guys have embraced his sleazy tactics.

And now we're all in the gutter.

Maybe if one campaign surrogate had called Dan ought for Lieberman-esque ads we could have avoided the ugliness that we're now left with. But no one did.

[ Parent ]
Hillary Clinton, Secretary of the State (0.00 / 0)
It's mean, its dirty, and it will all be just fine.  New Havenites sure do know how to hold a grudge.  DeStefano. Voigt. You?  Get over yourselves and support the winner on August 11th.
[ Parent ]
Please don't equate Hillary with Dan Malloy (0.00 / 0)
Her campaign might have started to go "there", but she pulled back.

Otoh, Malloy isn't showing that he has any concern for anything but himself.

[ Parent ]
I'm equating Hillary with Ned (0.00 / 0)
Don't assume.
[ Parent ]
Obama largely refrained from the crazy attacks (0.00 / 0)
Calling her a Washington insider was about as bad as it got. Imagine if Clinton won by overwhelmingly persuading superdelegates -- how would the party have come together after her increasingly wild and deranged attacks in the last few primary states?

And perhaps outspending McCain by a greater than 2:1 margin had some role to play in Obama's eventual victory? If McCain had been on the better end of a $400M+ finance disparity...

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

[ Parent ]
honestly (0.00 / 0)
I think the level to which this animosity exists beyond the comment threads here is minimal. Most people really aren't paying enough attention.

I second MVB's pledge.

[ Parent ]
I like the optimism (0.00 / 0)
but I do recall a sizeable amount of the Dem electorate "sticking for Joe" after the primary and, in looking at the results, they played a HUGE factor in Joe winning in the general.

Would we be saying the "rally around the Democrat" if Mike Jarjura happens to beat Kevin Lembo? You'll need every single Dem rallying around the winner of the primary to have a chance against the GOP nominee (when the indys become a factor in the general).

I wouldn't be so sure that people are going to rally behind the winner just because he has a (D) after his name. I can't see the "classy" Malloy supporters in New London or at Mary Glassman's event in West Hartford yesterday rallying behind her if Ned and Mary win next week.

If you don't think Nancy DiNardo is having sleepless nights over this scenario, you'd be fooling yourself.

[ Parent ]
That's a fascinating question (0.00 / 0)
Tessa flipped out at me the last time I asked it, but it's a good question -- how far can a Democrat go over the line before they forfeit support from the rank and file?

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...
[ Parent ]
Interesting (0.00 / 0)
I suspect it would be a problem if Ned/Dan went Indie like Joe did - and gave their supporters a way to stick around.  But once it is down to one of them v. Foley, even angry Democrats will stick around with the party.  Joe kept voters because he kept running - that is very different from expecting Malloy/Lamont supporters to switch to a Republican candidate out of spite.

Here's hoping, anyway.

[ Parent ]
Stick with Joe Dems (4.00 / 1)
...would NEVER EVER vote for Ned Lamont in the general if Joe didn't go indy as they were HIGHLY pissed that he challenged Joe in the first place. And might I add that State Central didn't do much in terms of rallying Dem politicos around Lamont after the primary (I don't have the time to find the "Stick with Joe" list I made back in '06.

A good percentage of those Dems would had sat the general out...in fact, I would argue that some who voted for Joe in the primary sat out the general.

I said this in two interviews and I'll continue to say it here. The nightmare scenario of of Dems sitting out he general is a REAL possibility. IMO, some of Malloy's tactics have gone WAY over the line and I can see a percentage of Lamont supporters sitting out the general...a percentage that should concern Nancy (as well as Jim Himes, Chris Murphy and Blumenthal).

Again, would you support Mike Jarjura if he was victorious against Kevin Lembo? If your answer is "no" then you should be concerned about the Lamont/Malloy mudfight. If you think there's going to be some type of Kumbla lovefest after next Tues, your mistaken.

[ Parent ]
dem turnout is going to be a problem nationwide (4.00 / 1)
so we're already in trouble.  I think the governor's race will be driven a bit by the fact that we haven't won in so long.

I am sure that some Joe voters would have stayed home, but I would simply argue that some would have switched if he had dropped out. I think you are mistaken that none of his voters would have gone to Ned - the people who "were HIGHLY pissed that he challenged Joe in the first place" existed, but I don't think that is how most voters saw it. That mindset existed among some editorial boards and Amann-types, but not the man-on-the-street who voted for Lieberman because he saw him in a parade that one time or remember when he was running for VP...

As a voter, it's easy to stay supporting the same guy if you have that option. If he is gone, it's easy to stay with the party.  Most voters - a VAST majority - don't follow these races nearly as closely as we do. The voting public doesn't have really strong feelings about the primary (assuming they even know what a primary is, that there is one, and who is in it).

Sure, there will be activists too turned off to hold their nose and vote - I would never have voted for Lieberman if Ned had lost the primary - but I don't think it will make a difference for most voters.

[ Parent ]
Trying again... (0.00 / 0)
...would you support Mike Jarjura (d) if he was victorious against Kevin Lembo (D)?
[ Parent ]
ah, sorry I forgot that part (4.00 / 1)
No, but that's based on his issue stances, it has nothing to do with his campaign. If his campaign were squeaky clean, I still wouldn't like him.*  Likewise, if Lembo went hard negative against Jarjura and won, I would still support him.

I actually meant to segue into this answer from my first part - I think Dems will be driven to rally around the Gov candidate because of our drought and because its the top of the ticket - an effect you won't see with the Comptroller race.

And I offer these observations not as a supporter of any candidate, just based on my knowledge and experience in politics. I don't mean we should excuse nasty primary campaigns - I've registered my disgust at the tone of some of the attacks, so don't take this as a pro-Malloy argument - it's just that my hopes are still high for the general election.

I see your point about some of the Malloy supporters being reluctant to come around. The grouchy sign-holders are a good example.  But there are plenty of nasty Lamont supporters as well, and I expect some of them to come around (if necessary).

It seems to me that the theory that the supporters of a loser won't support the winner is a dog that hasn't barked. Lieberman is an exception because he was still in the race.  For the most part, people come home. How many Deaniacs didn't end up voting for Kerry? I think the purpose of the argument is the winning campaign or incumbent uses it to turn party members against a challenger.

Again, I'll reiterate that I am looking at this strictly as a poly-sci question. I wasn't dodging the Lembo question intentionally, and I'm interested in your response(s) to the other points I've raised.

*A squeaky-clean Jarjura campaign, by the way, would be its own form of nasty deceitfulness. No clean campaign could represent that scumbag honestly!

[ Parent ]
Dilemma (4.00 / 1)
Unnecessary dilemma if you're willing to do some work for Lembo.  Get on the phones this weekend.  Distribute some signs (that's what I've been doing for the last 3 hours).  Poll stand.  You know.  Really help.

CTBob made a nice video for Lembo. http://bit.ly/aPORhY

[ Parent ]
MVB (0.00 / 0)
put a sign up outside my parents' house for me?
[ Parent ]
Done (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Bruce, you want me to (0.00 / 0)
Fall in line behind Malloy, were he to win?

Look the guy is running TV ads that work to portray Ned Lamont as a potential racist!

Sure Dan might get my vote against Tom Foley, but I'll never have a good word to say about him. Once again he's proven himself to be a slimeball.

Malloy didn't have to go "there". But his ego and ambition are obviously greater than any concerns he might have for the CT Dem Party.

[ Parent ]
Ed (0.00 / 0)
 no Ed...im not advocating  for one  candidate or another as I havent made up my mind yet....I do suggest that you vote  for the candidate best fitting your issues and policy concerns,whoever that may be.

I am just amazed as heck  how these very moderate candidates  are generating  such intensity.

Best, Bruce

[ Parent ]
Bruce, even in going after Lieberman (0.00 / 0)
I've never been an "ends justify any means" type of guy.

I was like you in feeling that we had two reasonably good candidates, who each would make a decent governor.

That was until via his campaigning, Malloy reminded me what a scumbag he is.

I'm not incensed by Dan's positions. It's all about his lack of character and his selfish decision to take this contest into the sewer.

Maybe you don't watch TV?

[ Parent ]
I watch TV Ed (0.00 / 0)
I usually  turn off the negative ads..its a shame  the discourse has turned out like  this...Best,Bruce
[ Parent ]
If, as you say, (4.00 / 1)
you consider the two candidates to be equal policy-wise, then get pragmatic. Vote for the only one who has a chance of beating Tom Foley. (Hint: his initials are NL)
[ Parent ]
I will make up mind as i hit the voting booth (0.00 / 0)
 I consider Lamont and Malloy very moderate  with not much differences in policy.
[ Parent ]
completely unrelated to the flame wars (0.00 / 0)
but does anyone really think that 50% of the voters decide based on issues?

Not a chance. This is like when you run a poll that asks people if they voted last year -- everyone says yes because they know it is the right answer, even if it is not the truth.

I will support the Primary Winner (0.00 / 0)
Whether it is Ned or Dan, I will support the winner of Tuesday's primary.  I am hoping and working for Malloy because I think he is the better candidate for CT however, Ned is better than Foley or any other Republican. I just hope we are not campaigning on "My millionaire is better than your millionaire."  I think both Lamont and Foley would have very steep learning curves if they became governor.  Government is not a business and the buttons you push to get a government moving are different than the buttons you push to get a business moving.  Dan knows how to push the government buttons.
Government is not a business, but managing resources is managing resources (0.00 / 0)
whether it's in business or government.  Malloy has shown that he's not a good manager -- 2 top level employees, who were named employees of the month and had their pictures taken with Mayor Malloy, were discovered to have embezzled city funds under his tenure but not found out until the current mayor ran a regular audit of those employee's department.
[ Parent ]
CT GOV: Lamont ahead by 5 | 114 comments
 
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