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Q-Poll: Lamont leads with likely voters

by: Bob Adams

Thu Jul 15, 2010 at 08:22:03 AM EDT

(cross post from ConnecticutBob.com)

In the latest Quinnipiac Poll, Ned Lamont enjoys a nearly double-digit lead among likely Democratic voters over rival Dan Malloy in his bid for the gubernatorial nomination.

Previous Q-Polls only questioned "registered Democrats", which is a larger pool and includes people who haven't bothered to vote for years. "Likely voters" are Democrats who have actually voted during the last few years, and are the ones who are most likely to drag themselves out of bed on August 10th and go down to their polling place.

So Lamont's current 9-point lead over Malloy in this poll is more likely reflective of his actual lead than previous polls that only questioned registered Dems. But you can't really compare the two polls when they questioned different sets of Democrats, so anyone who claims the race is tightening isn't working with valid data. Reporters who cover the political beat should know this difference.

Bob Adams :: Q-Poll: Lamont leads with likely voters

Lamont also beats Republican front runners Tom Foley and Mike Fedele by a larger margin than Malloy.

In a very telling trend line of registered Democrats, Lamont actually increased his lead over Malloy since the previous poll. Because both polls used registered Democrats, it gives a more accurate picture:

Lamont's lead over Malloy increased from 17 points to 20 points since the June 10th poll. And the June 10th poll was conducted BEFORE the televised June debate between Dan Malloy and Ned Lamont. So Malloy LOST three points after the last debate!

I don't know, but it seems like Dan being so anxious for another debate is a bit of a desperation move, when clearly he wasn't helped at all by the previous debate. Perhaps the voters want to hear about the issues, and not simply more political grandstanding.

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Q-Poll: Lamont leads with likely voters | 3 comments

I think voters like to hear about issues at their convenience (0.00 / 0)

Debates are scheduled affairs and you have to set aside time to watch them. Course, you can tape the debate and watch it later, which is what I did. But most people don't care about debates because they find politics boring and debates can end up being personality contests. Remember, the Gore vs Bush debates. Gore actually had the best answers and knowledge but he came off to many viewers as arrogant. Wonder if that is the impression some of the 20,000 viewers had of Malloy in the NBC30 debate?

Lamont's strength isn't debates, but it is running an aggressive and innovative campaign. While his ads aren't as humorous as Hillsman's were in 2006, his ads do hit the key bullet points about issues voters care about. Lamont also comes across as more positive and energetic than Malloy. Lamont has that entrepreneur trait of the "Can do" attitude and it comes across all his TV ads; whereas, Malloy comes off as more reserved, like he's giving his closing arguments to the jury.

One of Malloy's problems that I see when I read his policy positions on his web site is that they are written like a college dissertation or maybe a legal brief. Nothing against college dissertations or legal briefs, but these styles of writing requires the viewer to spend a lot of time reading and time is a precious commodity to most voters and viewers. Also, because of the style of dissertations and legal briefs, some things are repetitive in Malloy's writings and that ads to the length of the work and therefore adds to the time a viewer spends on that piece of writing. Low info voters don't want to waste their summer vacation time reading dissertations or legal briefs.

On the other hand, Lamont's issue pages, as I've said before, uses the current business model of writing -- summary of problem followed by bullet points of solutions. While some in the media don't like it, it is probably the style of writing most voters and viewers are familiar with in their jobs. That's what I deal with every day.

So based upon the latest Q-Poll, it appears that Lamont the entrepreneur understands Connecticut's Democratic voter base better than Malloy the former Mayor of Stamford and former prosecutor.

And since Lamont has been aggressive about getting his message out to voters, maybe they don't see the need to have or watch a debate, especially one between 2 candidates of the same party, who are more in agreement on the overall issues than they are different; whereas, a debate between the Democratic and Republican candidates is more interesting because the 2 parties have different philosophies. Also the general election debates are in the Fall, when voters are no longer in summer vacation mode.

by: Larkspur @ Thu Jul 15, 2010 at 14:28:46 PM UTC

I notice - (0.00 / 0)

"And so do we" has re-appeared in Ned's campaign ads.

Boy that takes me back -

Walking around the State Capitol with my jacket inside out for Hillsman -

Driving to the Primary night victory party with a huge full moon hanging on the horizon.

To steal Dana Carvey's old bit - "And we liked it, we loved it. Not like you kids today." (Said in cranky old man voice.)

by: amarko55 @ Thu Jul 15, 2010 at 15:25:09 PM UTC

2x the posting (0.00 / 0)

On the FP we have ctblogger with the poll numbers, and in Recommended we have ctbob with the poll numbers.

The numbers don't change between the two, but if you read them both you come away with a very different set of perceptions of what the numbers say and what they mean.

So, if you want a pro-Malloy look at the numbers, look to CTBlogger to have provided that on the FP. If you want a more pro-Lamont view Bob in Recommended provides that (it is actually more neutral until the last line of opinion).

I highly recommend reading BOTH posts.

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by: Met00 @ Thu Jul 15, 2010 at 19:09:49 PM UTC