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My Left Nutmeg

CT-GOV: Lamont, Foley lead governor's race

by: ctblogger

Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 09:28:47 AM EDT


The latest Quinnipiac poll on the governor's race was released today and it shows that among Democrats, Ned Lamont still leads the field with 28 percent, up one percent form the last poll taken, with Dan Malloy coming in second with 18 percent, up seven points since the last poll. The poll also shows that a large number of residents are still undecided (44 percent).

Lamont received the highest favorables among all the candidates at 43 percent (compared to Malloy at 35 percent), but also received the highest unfavorables at 13 percent (compared to Malloy at 9 percent).

On the Republican side, Tom Foley leads the field with 30 percent (up from 17 percent in January) with the rest of the field basically a non-factor at this point. As with the Democrats, the number of residents who are still undecided is still rather high (50 percent).

Other goodies:

  • Despite the controversy surrounding her, and losing ground by 8 percent since the last poll, Susan Bysiewicz is maintains a solid grasp on the Democratic nomination for Attorney General by 54 percent compared to her closest rival, George Jepsen, who received 10 percent, unchanged since the last poll.

  • The Q-poll also finds that people support for Sunday alcohol sales (56-39 percent) while opposing keno gambling (70-27 percent) and reinstating toll booths on highways (56-40).

You can read the complete report by clicking here.

UPDATE: Statments from the Lamont and Malloy camps are below the fold.

UPDATE 2: Where did the CT Mirror get their numbers from?

But Lamont's lead over Malloy also has shrunk from 22 percentage points in November to 16 points in January to 10 points today. In November, Lamont led 23 percent to 9 percent.

Huh? Here's November's Q-poll numbers:
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont, Dan Malloy, Susan Bysiewicz, Gary LeBeau, Rudy Marconi and Jim Amann, for whom would you vote?

Nov_Poll

The November poll (which included then front runner Bysiewicz at 26 percent) had Lamont at 23 percent, and Malloy at 9 percent. A difference of 14 percent.

...and today.

TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont, Dan Malloy, Mary Glassman, Juan Figueroa and Rudy Marconi, for whom would you vote?

Mar_Poll

Lamont moved up from 23 to 28 (a difference of 5 percent) while Malloy moved up from 9 to 13 18 (a difference of 4 9 percent). The difference between the two is 10 percent but Lamont never had a 22 percentage lead over Malloy in November.

UPDATE 3: Paz over at CT Mirror has updated his write-up.

But Lamont's lead over Malloy also has shrunk from 16 points in January to 10 points today. Two months ago, Lamont led 27 percent to 11 percent.

The Bysiewicz campaign also released a statement that's been included below the fold.
ctblogger :: CT-GOV: Lamont, Foley lead governor's race
From Malloy campaign senior advisor Roy Occhiogrosso.
Is Ned really highlighting a poll that shows his lead shrinking?  That's an interesting strategy.  But what's more interesting is the fact that Dan increased his vote share by 64% without spending a dime on paid communications.  Ned's numbers didn't move.   Dan is proving that you don't have to spend millions of your own dollars to become better known and to generate enthusiasm and support for your candidacy.  What you do have to do is have the better candidate with a better track record and better ideas.  We'll spend plenty of money on paid communications when the time is right: after the Convention, when voters really begin to pay attention.  People ask Dan all the time if this strategy can work.  Today shows that it's already working.

From Ned Lamont's communication director Justine Sessions:

This is the third poll in a row where Ned is up by double digits over his closest challenger."

Ned's business background and his focus on creating jobs are resonating with voters, and this comes before campaign season has even kicked into high gear.  As Ned continues to travel the state sharing his vision to get Connecticut back on offense with more voters, we'll see his support grow even stronger.    

Of course the poll that really matters is the one taken on Election Day, but these results tell us that the voters like what they're hearing from Ned.

Susan Bysiewicz

This poll confirms what I have been hearing from citizens across the State of Connecticut who have been frustrated by the negative political attacks and negative publicity I have recently received.  Many voters have shared with me their strong support, and their belief in my qualifications for Attorney General.

The voters of Connecticut are smart enough to distinguish between what is politically motivated and what is real.  The people of this state care about significant issues like reducing utility rates, environmental preservation, and protecting consumers from predatory practices of financial institutions and credit card companies.

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It's not a horse race yet (0.00 / 0)
Polls this far out aren't terribly meaningful in terms of head to head match-ups and, as ctblogger points out, with 44 percent undecided this is still wide open.

But here's what I find interesting about this poll.  Malloy hasn't spent a dime on paid advertising, it is all earned media.  And Malloy and the campaign has really earned every bit of it, by being the hardest working candidate that I've ever seen, putting out substantive statements all the time, offering tons of video, regular email updates to supporters, and so on.

Malloy's vote share has moved 7 points without spending any money on paid media.  Ned hasn't spent any money on paid media either, and he's moved but a point.  That tells me that the campaign's focus on issues, on shoe leather campaigning, on direct contact with the voters, is working.  The time will come for paid media, and when it does, Malloy will be competitive.


In full disclosure (0.00 / 0)
...and in fairness to readers might not know, Chris MC does video for Malloy's campaign.

[ Parent ]
Full disclosure for me (0.00 / 0)
In 2006 I was a delegate to the state convention from Greenwich, and I voted for Lamont for senator and Malloy for governor, and both votes I cast enthusiastically.

[ Parent ]
and (0.00 / 0)
was the lone delegate (of twelve) from my town for Malloy at the convention last cycle.

and advocated heavily for Malloy on the blogs, principally CTLP, in the primary phase...

and worked hard for DeStefano and Murphy, organizing our local phoning to get out the vote after the primary...

nobody should (and I doubt would) mistake me for someone pretending to be a dispassionate observer.

see Dan's youtube channel with tons of the substance that I refer to above here:
http://www.youtube.com/malloyf...

I'm also available for weddings and bar mitzvahs.  ;-)


[ Parent ]
How come Malloy is not competitive now? (0.00 / 0)
Malloy ran for governor in 2006, won the nomination at the Democratic convention but lost the 2006 primary.  It's not like he has no name recognition.  He should be more familiar to Democrats now than he was in 2006?

So why isn't Malloy the leader of the Democratic governor's race now?  Democrats should already be familiar with his experience as mayor of Stamford, and that leads me to a few more question.

Are the 5,000 jobs Malloy claims to have created still around?  If so, what kind of jobs are they?  His web site refers back to a study done in 2006, but none since.  The Stamford papers say Malloy was trying to turn Stamford into Wall Street East and that was OK until the bubble burst in 2008 and claimed 7,000 jobs in the Bridgeport to Stamford corridor.  Out of those 7,000 jobs lost, how many were in the original 5,000 Malloy claims to have created in 2006?

And do you think his friend and fellow DLC'r Mayor Eddie Perez's corruption trial will be a problem for Malloy as the May convention nears?  Eddie's trial is suppose to be in full swing by mid-May.



[ Parent ]
And 1 more question about Malloy (0.00 / 0)
Will the fact that his chosen successor for Mayor of Stamford, David Martin, lost to the Republican candidate, Michael Pavia, be a factor in the Democratic primary for governor? (Stamford Democrats' loss of mayor's office may hurt Malloy's gubernatorial bid, Nov. 3, 2009)  While Dan Malloy was Mayor, David Martin spent the past eight of his 26 years on the city's Board of Representatives as Council chairman and the two shared in success and failure in Stamford.  Chris Healy is salivating over exploiting this lack of coat tails by Malloy against the previous Mayor of Stamford in a potential governor's race.  

From my perspective, Dan Malloy's political acumen seems to be off the mark.  He won the 2006 Democratic convention but lost the primary.  He sided with Hillary Clinton for Prez in 2008.  Hillary lost to Obama, whose CT Campaign co-chairs were Ned Lamont and State Sen. Don Williams.  His chosen successor for Mayor of Stamford lost to the Republican.  He seems to be rerunning his 2006 strategy for governor and hopes and prays that he can win the nomination outright in the May convention and have no primary challenger.  And he was leapfrogged by Ned Lamont into the lead for the CT Governor's race.

Now Dan has gained in the polls recently, but he should be thankful that Ned hasn't unleashed good ads yet.


[ Parent ]
I didn't get the sense (0.00 / 0)
that Malloy was a particularly interested party in the race to succeed him in office.

Mostly, I think that was strategic, as Pavia was drawing from a deep well of goodwill locally, and it might have hurt Malloy worse to be seen as campaigning 110% for Martin and still losing.

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...


[ Parent ]
Just like he's not an interested party in the fate of his friend Mayor Eddie Perez (0.00 / 0)
who corruption trial begins soon.

[ Parent ]
Interesting...Malloy campaign senior advisor Roy Occhiogrosso... (0.00 / 0)
Roy Occhiogrosso was a former Lieberman strategist for Lieberman during the 2006 battle between Lamont and Lieberman.  I knew I had heard of that name before.

The links between Lieberman and Malloy are strong but not surprising.  We have already seen Malloy adopt some of Lieberman's old barbs against Lamont.  I expect to hear more of that crap.


[ Parent ]
I think Malloy's poll jump has more to do with Liebercrats moving from Amman and Bysiewicz to Malloy (0.00 / 0)
There are Liebercrats in my town and DTC and they once supported Susan B. but after she backed out of the governor's race, they shifted their support to Malloy.

[ Parent ]
Though lots of undecideds, Lamont IS running strongly (0.00 / 0)
Let's remember that it is Doug Schwartz who is churning out this "'Undecided' is the big leader in the Democratic and Republican primary race for Governor.." schtick, and Schwartz has never been a fan of Ned Lamont.  The bottom line is that Lamont came out strongly from his announcement and after the first poll just three days after his announcement, he's been the Democratic leader.  Though 44% remain undecided, still Lamont has remained the strong leader among Democrats.  And looking closer, he holds a strong +30% favorable rating with 43% overall being favorable.

So Doug is trying his darnedest to downplay Ned's lead, while in 2006, he tried his darnedest to do the opposite.  Not much credibility there.

While there's a lot of time left, and lots of undecideds, it's pretty clear that Ned Lamont is a popular politician in this state among Democrats, and from previous opinion polls that dealt with a rematch of Lieberman against Lamont, Lamont also showed strong and increasing popularity since the 2006 election.  

So this is not a matter of an early poll with lots of undecideds.  Lamont is for real.


It always bothers me when pollsters opine (4.00 / 3)
Schwartz is one of the worst when it comes to adding spin to his own results.  I feel that sort of commentary brings the entire impartiality of the poll into question. Hey, I get it; the guy loves to hear himself "speak". Trust me, I'm a blogger, I can dig it.

But maybe Doug should stick to simply reporting the numbers and letting those of us among the unwashed masses figure things out for ourselves. Or at the very least, he should let the professional spin-sters add their own slant to the results.  

Connecticut Bob


[ Parent ]
Couldn't agree more! (0.00 / 0)
Just wish our so-called journalists could see the same thing and tell Schwartz to put a sock in it.

[ Parent ]
well said. (0.00 / 0)
very true.

[ Parent ]
Malloy concentrating on Winning the Convention (0.00 / 0)
Former Mayor Dan Malloy has been making the rounds of Democratic Town Committees and talking to democratic activists.  He rolled out his policy statements on http://danmalloy.com/policy  when he declared for Governor.  Dan is concentrating on winning the convention nomination.  He does not have the name recognition that Ned Lamont garnered because the Lieberman-Lamont contest took most of the political oxygen in 2006 leaving the governor's race in the dark.  Dan Malloy has the best experience to be an effective governor and the plans to use that experience in Hartford in 2011.

Why did the 2006 Lieberman-Lamont contest take up most of the political oxygen in 2006? (0.00 / 0)
Why was it the THE political contest and not the governor's race in 2006?

If Dan Malloy has the best experience to lead CT as governor, why did the Stamford voters reject his heir apparent?  Could it be that Malloy's vision of making Stamford Wall Street East turned into a mirage after the 2008 Bubble burst?


[ Parent ]
On WNPR Malloy said... (0.00 / 0)
that the Democratic candidate in Stamford was not his guy, that he had not "hand-picked" him.  Do you believe the truth is different?  Be interested in more perspective.

[ Parent ]
that is true (4.00 / 1)
He wanted BOF member Tim Abbazia, who had hired on a bunch of the Malloy crew before it was obvious that David Martin had enough support on the DCC to get the nomination.  

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

[ Parent ]
How did the DCC out-muscle Malloy? (0.00 / 0)
It's a small body (45 members for a city of over a hundred thousand), and, I understand, rarely even meets.  How does the Democratic City Committee in Stamford handpick the candidate if the long-serving Democratic mayor wants someone else?  Was the relationship between mayor and committee poor, or deteriorated significantly over time?  

Just how close is Malloy with Lieberman?  

Also, the curious thing for me is Malloy's low popularity even though he's the mayor of one of the state's largest cities, and ran for governor four years ago.  It's not as if he's not as well known as Lamont.  Something else is at work here.


[ Parent ]
Martin was Board of Reps president (0.00 / 0)
and the Board of Reps members were heavily represented on the DCC.

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

[ Parent ]
not true (0.00 / 0)
Malloy did not publicly support Abbazia and Abbazia did not hire any of the Malloy crew whatsoever.

[ Parent ]
"did not publicly support" (0.00 / 0)
Also true. I know of at least 2 Abbazia hires from the Malloy circle before the campaign folded, though.  

–7.25 / –7.28 | http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

[ Parent ]
More Anti-Democrat spin from Schwartz (0.00 / 0)

In this AP article carried in Greenwich Time, Schwartz slimes Susan Bysiewicz:

Despite negative headlines, Susan Bysiewicz is still way ahead in the Democratic primary for attorney general," Schwartz said. "One has to wonder how long she can maintain her big lead if various controversies surrounding her campaign continue.

Doesn't the guy understand he's turned into a hatchet man, and that he's no longer an objective pollster?


ctblogger (0.00 / 0)
In the second update you put:
Lamont moved up from 23 to 28 (a difference of 5 percent) while Malloy moved up from 9 to 13 (a difference of 4 percent). The difference between the two is 10 percent but Lamont never had a 22 percentage lead over Malloy in November.

Should be:
Lamont moved up from 23 to 28 (a difference of 5 percent) while Malloy moved up from 9 to 18 (a difference of 9 percent). The difference between the two is 10 percent but Lamont never had a 22 percentage lead over Malloy in November.

I suppose we see it can be easy for people to get all of these numbers confused!


Dan seems to be doing fine (0.00 / 0)
I think that this movement in the polls shows that the hard work of traveling across the state and getting his name out is paying off. It sounds like people are hearing his ideas and taking well to them. That's really what this whole thing should be about. Connecticut's future and how we're going to move the state forward.

I do understand that right now this is an inside baseball game and politics certainly will play a role, and we want fierce campaigners. Let me say that nobody works harder than Dan Malloy. We see this here as Ned remains stagnant and Dan moves up. The democratic primary in 2006 was only lost by half a percent. The convention was won by a couple votes. In both cases Dan was pretty much the underdog.

In regards to Ned, I think some of his supporters wish he was running against Joe Lieberman again but this is an entirely different race. It is a different job that requires different skills and involves different issues. I am a big supporter of the idea that competition produces the best candidates, and for that reason I am glad Ned is out there along with the rest of the candidates. It is also why I am glad we have the Citizens' Election Program here in the state and that almost all the democratic candidates for Governor are participating. It will be exciting to hear them discuss the issues in the debate tonight.

In regards to full disclosure I think it's obvious I strongly support Dan. I don't think Ned Lamont is a bad guy, though I strongly disagree with his decision on participation in CEP. I just think that Dan is the best qualified candidate for this office.  

Blog | Twitter


It still leaves the question of why isn't Dan the frontrunner now? (0.00 / 0)
I can understand why Susan Bysiewicz would surpass him in the polls for governor, but Ned Lamont?

Malloy has already met with DTC's in 2006, so its not like he's an unknown.  He's a known candidate, who doesn't seem to have much momentum from his 2006 campaign.  


[ Parent ]
 
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