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My Left Nutmeg

Mastering the false equivalency meme

by: Scarce

Sat Nov 14, 2009 at 13:39:47 PM EST


Both Doug Schwartz of Quinnipiac's Polling Institute and WTNH's Kent Brockamn Mark Davis are long practitioners of the fine art of creating convenient storylines, Schwartz with numbers and Davis with cliche's.

So this is hardly surprising.

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows 60 percent of the public thinks Joe Lieberman is honest and trustworthy.

The poll found that the public is just about evenly split right down the middle on whether or not he should be re-elected but his stand on health care and a filibuster does not seem to be having any impact at all on voters.

"We asked specifically if they are more or less likely to vote for Senator Lieberman because of his opposition to the public option and we found the plurality of voters say it doesn't make a difference to their vote," Schwartz said.

And the most interesting numbers of all come when people are asked if Joe Lieberman shares your views.

The public at large is split again, but 70 percent of Republicans say yes, about a third of Democrats say yes, and about half the independents say yes.

"It's sort of the coalition that he had when he won re-election back in 2006," Schwartz said.

That means the people who re-elected Lieberman still agree with the way he represents them and if he stays on this course he would have a good chance of re-election next time.

The problem with this bit of sleight of hand, of course, is that the unique set of circumstances in 2006 will not occur again in 2012. Lieberman will face a stronger more experienced Democratic opponent, and the Republicans will likely field a real candidate they support who will draw more than 20% of the Republican vote. The numbers simply aren't there for Joe Lieberman's re-election. And he knows it.

Despite Schwartz and Davis's best PR efforts on Lieberman's behalf.

Scarce :: Mastering the false equivalency meme
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a separate poll (0.00 / 0)
I conducted my own poll, and everyone I polled agreed that Joe Lieberman is an ass.

Quinnipiac's poll is about as scientific and reliable as a Fox News report. Schwartz destroyed any remaining credibility that the Quinnipiac poll might have had with these latest results.

I have one gripe, though, with our Congressional delegation. When Joe Lie goes on TV and misinforms the public about health care legislation, why don't our Congressmen and our other Senator go on TV and call him out for lying?

It's 6 against 1. They can hold six times as many press conferences explaining the virtues of the bill, but they don't. They just let Joe lie -- and don't say a word about it.



But Quinnipiac is right about one thing (0.00 / 0)
I am no more or less likely to vote for him because of this latest bit of weaselry.  There was no chance of it before, and there is still no chance of it.

[ Parent ]
It's possible that Joe's Strategy in 2006 (0.00 / 0)
Was simply to split the Democratic Party.

So, now after a 2006 split Democratic Party, the question is how many Dems can Joe pick up if he runs as a petitioning candidate?

He doesn't have to go the primary route or cross the aisle to try and screw things up the next time around.

These kinds of story lines do seem designed to smooth the way...


Lieberman will need one of the party endorsements (0.00 / 0)
He had a virtual one in 2006 with the Republicans, and enough residual Democratic support (33%). It seems quite unlikely the increasingly right wing Republicans will do him that favor again. And even Joe Lieberman does not have the chutzpah to attempt to win the Democratic nomination--does he?

[ Parent ]
The question is whether Lieberman (0.00 / 0)
will make 2012 into a three-way crapshoot.

Certainly the CT GOP will field a respectable candidate, and make a play for the seat. And no, I don't see them giving Joe their endorsement, although a case could be made that Lieberpuke might win a GOP primary, were he to switch parties.

But even his Democratic ass-kissers know there is no way that Joe can be the Dem nominee. We will have a strong Democrat running, Lieberman or no Lieberman.

If it is a 3-way race, who wins? Could get interesting in a hurry!


[ Parent ]
The numbers aren't there (0.00 / 0)
If the Democrat gets 75% of the Dem votes and the Republican gets 75% of the Rep votes then an Independent Lieberman would have to get upwards of 75% of the Indy votes just to compete with those blocks of voters he can no longer rely on as he could in 2006. It's an unlikely scenario. And Democratic registration is inching closer to Independent each year in Connecticut.

[ Parent ]
The numbers aren't there? (0.00 / 0)
If Lieberman still gets 30% of the Democratic vote in a 3-way race, how does that make him unelectable?

Give bi-partisan Joe 30% of the Republican vote, and 40% of the Independents, and who is to say he doesn't get re-elected. (and I friggin' hate Joe.)

Please, let's not dismiss the very real fact taht Lieberpuke could win re-election. Or that the Republicans could steal this seat in a three-way.

We've got a lot of work to do....


[ Parent ]
The math is simple (0.00 / 0)
Lieberman got 75% of the R vote, D 33%, I 50% in 2006. He won't come anywhere near those numbers against two legitimate candidates in 2012. A real Republican candidate will steal all of the advantage he enjoyed in 06.

[ Parent ]
Right, and he might need only 35% of the vote to win... (0.00 / 0)
So starting with a third of the Democratic vote is huge. If he adds half the independent vote to that, he might encourage enough Republican to vote for him that he actually wins.

Joe has a base of loyal voters, and I think it's a mistake if you write him off as unelectable.


[ Parent ]
 
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