Bitter Defeat for Democrats in Greenwich

do the results make sense? (0.00 / 0)

I'm asking because Greenwich did have some voting machine programming problems on one occasion in a local race awhile back, in a similar situation where a respected long time incumbent "lost" to an unknown. I think it was a polling place moderator who thought something was off.

If it makes sense, it's probably a defeat. if it doesn't really seem to match what you know of voter sentiment, look further ASAP because there are only a few days to challenge the results and there is no guarantee the races will be audited - in fact,since Greenwich has had audits every election since inception,the odds are against a random audit.

I can find the previous info -- seems to me it was a problemthat occurred like in Riverside or Old Greenwich or something. ctvoterscount.org may also know more about this.

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by: greenpeas @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 08:31:37 AM CST

What are the facts on turnout and votes in the districts? (0.00 / 0)

"It shocked everyone at HQ that Bill Grad, an enormously talented and well qualified individual who had started and sold his own telecoms company, was rejected for tax collector.  Grad trailed Laudonia by twelve percentage points with one district yet to report.  One individual suggested a big reason: that Grad didn't have a last name that ended in a vowel.  In other words, the Republicans enjoy rock-solid support in the North Mianus and Cos Cob neighborhoods of Greenwich from Italian-Americans."

Incomplete picture.  without looking at the turnout and votes, speculastion is disempowering and really doesn't move us any closer to understanding these results.  The conclusion would seem to be to say, "What an you do?  They're Italian"  instead of really thinking through the dynamics.

Where did Grad/Laudonia do well, and do poorly?  Where was the best turnout in the case that Grad won the district, and where was it best where he lost?

How did the two campaign?

In traditionally low turnout elections, if voting turnout is increased where strong ties exist, then any candidate needs to maximize efforts with all his/her strong ties.  Grad would seem to have had a great opportunity to do so in Greenwich,the home of the Ivy League MBA.  Name recognition:  "Vote for the Grad"  -- kind of tells the story to that crowd, doesn't it?

If e.g. Grad did not do this and Laudonia did maximize his ties, for example, the result may have had nothing to do with vowels and everything to do with what you do about your ties: namely, campaign strategy and shoe leather.  

With a low/no information voter, voting by name occurs.  You have to make sure people have something more to go on, and have a burning reason to get to the polls.

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by: greenpeas @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 08:52:11 AM CST

All very good points (0.00 / 0)

We're trying to figure things out.  Bill Grad lost in each of the twelve districts.  It was a three-way race, with the third guy a local, Joe Novakowski who was endorsed by the outgoing (retiring) tax collector. Novakowski's politics are pro-Pat Buchanan, and he'd written several letters to the local press expressing far-right views.  Seems he was buddies with the very popular outgoing guy, who endorsed him.  Both he and the retiring tax collector were registered Democrats, but Novakowski switched his registration just several months ago, probably in preparation for receiving the Democratic nomination.  But DTC members rebelled at nominating someone with such conservative views.  Bill Grad stepped forward, they both got signatures to get on the ballot, Novakowski both as an independent and a Democrat, a primary ensued, and Grad won overwhelmingly.

Both the Republican Laudonia and Novakowski are residents of the kind of working class very Italian Cos Cob neighborhood of Greenwich, which is also a neighborhood of very long-term generations-long Greenwichites.  Fred Camillo, the freshman Republican state representative, also comes from Cos Cob.  Democrat Ed Krumeich, whose maternal grandfather was Italian went up against Camillo two years ago, and the Republicans really, REALLY played up Camillo's Italian heritage.  In the end he won with 55% of the vote.

The talk is that the Republican strongholds in town are Back Country, with the polo ponies and mega-mansions, and Cos Cob with its tightly knit Italian-American community.  Laudonia did particularly well there, but he won elsewhere as well.  Other than that, I don't understand it well.  But people were warning that Laudonia is well known, a nice guy, and was backed by the Republican Town Committee.

Regarding possible voter fraud, I tend to doubt it.  Having visited one of the polling places in the afternoon, I was told by poll workers that turnout had been heavy, and when I saw the books, they did show that Republicans had come out in force in that very Republican district (District 5- Riverside).  Lin Lavery lost that district by 500 votes- about 900 to 400.  A popular DTC member who had also initially stood for BOE, Jennifer Dayton, barely won reelection to the Representative Town Meeting, coming in 16th with 18 people elected.  Only one district reported problems with voting machines.  All the others were visual screen (correct terminology?).  If there was fraud, I have no idea how to look for it.  Previous vote audits have been clean.

But we are all shocked and scratching our heads.  It was far worse an outcome than anyone imagined.  Far worse.

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by: thomashooker @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 09:54:23 AM CST

[ Parent ]

to clarify a couple of points (0.00 / 0)

The election error was a programming error, involving how the program handled write in votes.

Details were captured here so we can all learn from it:

http://www.bbvforums.org/forum...

I believe you mean Rick Novakowski, not Joe.

The random audits are not designed to catch fraud.  We are told by our SOTS that they are to determine "whether the machines functioned properly".

Would you believe a lab test result from a laboratory with a reputation for not being able to follow the protocols on the tests you had done? The audit is not well designed and even less well executed in a disturbingly high proportion of cases.

If you take a closer look, you will have to conclude that effectively the audits are a feel good exercise, Thomashooker.

I think I seriously would hold in abeyance any conclusions based on "audits", unless I attended it myself and verified how it was run.

BTW, what do you mean, all the rest were "visual screen"?  I'm not familiar with that term and am not sure what you are referring to.

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by: greenpeas @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 19:08:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Sorry, my ignorance is showing. (0.00 / 0)

I meant the machines that you put your paper ballot into to read.  I know this sounds silly.  I'm reading your advice closely.  Much appreciated.

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by: thomashooker @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 19:33:38 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I am no expert . . . (0.00 / 0)

But the new machines are not fail safe -- by any means. I believe that private companies continue to maintain control over the codes.

Never mind Florida in 2000, Ohio probably was stolen in 2004 (and the techie who is said to have engineered that theft died under suspicious circumstances in a small plane crash just before he was due to testify under oath).  If a national election can be stolen, a local one ought to be a piece of cake.  

Susan Bysiewicz essentially has turned oversight of our state's voting machines over to a UCONN team; these people might or might not be spohisticated enough (or inclined) to do due diligence.

I encourage those who know more about the technical issues involved to comment further.  Thank you.

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by: Ann Galloway @ Thu Nov 05, 2009 at 10:12:04 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Preliminary Results for Tax Collector... (4.00 / 1)

... looked something like this for Districts 1 through 12:

District ==>  1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12  Total
William Grad 416 252 187 266 466 564 406 521 366 363 459 4,266
Tod Laudonia 419 329 189 311 655 585 516 598 516 493 551 5,162
R Novakowski 108 108 49 167 98 103 64 337 159 52 235 1,480

Now, District 1 had a spread of 3, District 3 a spread of 2. It's possible, but WOW, those were close. Absentee ballots aren't included.

It was a sad day in Mudville.

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by: Route66 @ Thu Nov 05, 2009 at 00:12:02 AM CST

Preliminary Results were Incomplete (0.00 / 0)

Oh, yes, District 11 was missing at the time these numbers were assembled, so the 459, 551, and 235 column is actually for District 12.

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by: Route66 @ Thu Nov 05, 2009 at 00:13:46 AM CST

[ Parent ]