R2000/Daily Kos: Dodd 42 Simmons 46

by: Scarce

Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 17:49:55 PM EDT

In a poll to be released tomorrow the numbers for Chris Dodd seem to be inching up a little. There are several caveats with that, however. Both the Quinnipiac (July) and Rasmussen (September) polls had Dodd down by about 10 pts. Comparing pollsters directly is always an apples and oranges sort of game, and it's much better to compare the polls of the same pollster. Research 2000 hasn't polled the race since March though, when it found Dodd with a 5 pt lead. Quinnipiac a few weeks later had Dodd trailing by 16 when the nasty bank business stuff was unfolding.

I suspect the weighting for Republicans is higher for both Rasmussen and Quinnipiac than Research 2000 anticipates, accounting for the difference in the polling numbers, but I'm just guessing at that.

Dodd's favorables are now good among Democrats (+72/-21), awful among Republicans (+10/-76), of course, but also still awful among Independents which is Dodd's real problem: +32/-53.

Dodd does beat all the other Republicans though, Caliguri and Schiff quite handily.