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CT-04: McKinney Won't Run

by: tparty

Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 09:43:40 AM EDT

This is a huge recruiting failure for the GOP:

Ending months of speculation over whether he'd seek the congressional seat once held by his father, state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney on Wednesday said he will not challenge U.S. Rep. Jim Himes next year....
But he wouldn't rule out a possible campaign for statewide office next year.
"I think our state is run incredibly well by Gov. [M. Jodi] Rell and I support her tremendously, but if I have an opportunity to stay at home, be the father I want to be with my kids and help people out in Connecticut in public office, that's something I'll look at," he said.

McKinney had been heavily courted by national Republicans, and his potential run was supported by Chris Shays. The bench for the GOP in CT-04 now looks like it includes names like New Canaan resident Will Gregory (who mentions his Eagle Scout award in his website bio), conservative State Sen. Dan Debicella from Shelton, and first-term Greenwich State Sen. and George W. Bush fundraiser L. Scott Frantz.

Any challenger will need to come out of the box strong, because they will face a huge fundraising challenge.

Update: Other potential Republican names include State Sen. Toni Boucher from Wilton and former Bridgeport State Sen. Rob Russo.

tparty :: CT-04: McKinney Won't Run

Tags: John McKinney, Jim Himes, CT-04, (All Tags)

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CT-04: McKinney Won't Run | 6 comments

McKinneys Statement (0.00 / 0)

does nothing but add more fuel to the very active rumor that after Jodi Rell gets the budget done she'll announce she will NOT be seeking another term as Governor.

by: ctkeith @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 10:57:19 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

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It's obvious (0.00 / 0)

When Jim Himes announced he had raised seven figures by the middle of the year before the election year, it was all over for McKinney. He knew that he couldn't come close to matching that, and in a district that is trending relentlessly Democratic, he knew that he was toast.

by: thomashooker @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 18:18:50 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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with McKinney out watch Frantz and Boucher (0.00 / 0)

They can raise money from some of the wealthier base and they both have monumental egos. My guess is... Boucher, who thinks her 2008 victory -- in a district that trended heavily Democratic, her own town of Wilton having been carried by Barack Obama and by the new Democratic State Rep Peggy Reeves -- makes her the center-right choice.

I can hear it now: "Toni Boucher - She Goes Her Own Way".

Yeah, right back to echoes of Hoover, Reagan and Bush.

"Not ideas about the thing, but the thing itself" - Wallace Stevens

by: catchlightning @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 22:43:21 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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she may "think" it, but its not true (0.00 / 0)

Yes Boucher's district went heavily for Obama, but Himes lost every town in the 26th, including Westport. On the other hand, Boucher's opponent, John Hartwell, beat her in four of the seven towns.

I would hardly say the district trended heavily Democratic at all. IMHO - there is no way Boucher does this.

*Full Disclosure Note- I was a paid consultant for the Hartwell campaign.

by: famillionaire @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 07:32:22 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

still, if she did run (0.00 / 0)

She'd be a pretty formidable opponent. She has a reputation for diligence in her engagement with local boards and constituents that McKinney never did. IMHO, she'd be the worst of the current field to run against.

Of course, she is also a crazy nut, which may come out more in a Congressional campaign than a local race.

–7.25 / –7.28

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tw...

by: mattw @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 08:02:43 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Money becomes a serious issue now (0.00 / 0)

If you look at recent CT political history serious "rookie" challengers for congress fell short for simple basic reasons: they got into the race late and didn't raise enough cash.

Joe Courtney in 2002 started about Sept 2001 but was outraised by about 2-1 in direct contributions, and perhaps much more in indirect money by Simmons. Courtney lost by 8%.

Diane Farrell in 2004 raised about $1.5mil, or about 2/3 what Shays did but a lot of her money came in far too late into 2004 so she was effectively outgunned from the get-go. Farrell lost by 4%.

(Farrell losing in 2006 was for a whole host of other reasons but name recognition and lack of money were not among them.)

by: Scarce @ Fri Jul 31, 2009 at 07:32:35 AM CDT

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CT-04: McKinney Won't Run | 6 comments

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