CT-SEN: Dodd Rebound Continues, Still Trails Simmons, Beats Others

Dodd still losing among Indies 56-27 (0.00 / 0)

..in this theoretical match-up with the loathsome Simmons. Dodd's numbers are improving with Democrats, as to be expected. Dodd's campaign money advantage should push him over the top among independents when the real campaign kicks into gear next year. Simmons can't really afford a long protracted and expensive primary campaign so he might not be able to beat Foley or even Schiff if they secure major backing.

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by: Scarce @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 15:16:52 PM UTC

Senator Dodd is in enormous trouble (4.00 / 2)

His approval ratings are lower than Lieberman's.  His trustworthiness ratings are much lower than Lieberman's.  Can you believe that?  And his ratings head to head with Simmons got worse.

You just cannot look at those numbers objectively and conclude other than that he is probably going to lose next year.  Hate to say it, but the numbers are telling the story.

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by: thomashooker @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 16:20:45 PM UTC

Not so at all (0.00 / 0)

There are still more than 15 months to go until election day - at least a dozen or more Quinnipiac polls. Head-to-heads mean very little at this point - look at Simmons' massive lead in a GOP primary where the other candidates don't even reach 5%. People still see this race as Dodd vs. not-Dodd. That will change as the GOP candidates start to be defined.

And Dodd has now recovered all of his lost D support. He is slowly improving among unaffiliateds, but obviously needs to do a lot of work there - luckily for him he still has the time to do it. What's clear is that he's stopped the bleeding, and has the support of his base.

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by: tparty @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 16:37:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's the problem (0.00 / 0)

Dodd should be well ahead of any challenger at this point, not far behind.  And the fact that over several months he's only lost ground, and that to a right-wing Republican who barely won, then barely lost in the most Republican of congressional districts in the state, shows shocking weakness.  

Though he's recovered some D support, the massive negatives from independents, who usually are dependably Democratic in their sentiments, or at least not far off, is a horrible sign.

Incumbents do lose elections, and one just cannot look at those numbers and feel that Senator Dodd will not lose.  Over the next few months he will have to consider bowing out, lest the party seriously risk losing the seat to a Republican.

I'm not against Senator Dodd.  I admire him greatly.  But sometimes one has to acknowledge what the numbers are telling one.

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by: thomashooker @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 16:57:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes you're right (0.00 / 0)

No incumbent in any race has ever recovered from a single-digit deficit in the polls 15 months before election day.

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by: tparty @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 17:10:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's not the magnitude of the deficit... (0.00 / 0)

and don't get me wrong.  I'd love for Senator Dodd to win.  But the atrocious approval numbers after so long in the Senate, his trustworthiness numbers, even though I believe the entire thing is ginned up, among independents are very disturbing.  His even being behind someone like Simmons in a state that has been trending ever more Democratic, is shocking.

If I were looking at those numbers and it was a Republican incumbent, I'd say he was toast.

Sometimes one has to be very tough-minded and begin a discussion to see who could be elected and when the right time would be for Senator Dodd to bow out.  

I think it could happen.  I don't think he can win, even with fifteen months to go.

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by: thomashooker @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 18:19:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And did you just notice these numbers? (0.00 / 0)

Most reached their floor in April, post-AIG, and have been going slowly up since. The trustworthiness number has not, and is concerning, but there are fifteen months to go. The head-to-head means very little, other than telling us what we already know, that Dodd is vulnerable, with fifteen months to go. At some point if his numbers flatline or go down again, it may be time to start having the discussion you describe. But that point seems - both to me and, more importantly, to the rank-and-file Democrats whose support he has almost completely recovered in this poll - to still be far away.  

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by: tparty @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 18:53:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Independents (0.00 / 0)

In the end these polls are only about Dodd. All the Republicans, including Simmons, are [Fill in the blank] republican candidates, or "other". At election time however, that Other becomes real as the campaign emerges. And then the Other has to make a compelling case that he will make a better Senator than Chris Dodd.

And this does not mean a better person, but simply someone unaffiliated voters feel comfortable sending into the murky waters of Washington DC politics. Ned Lamont wasn't able to convince these type of voters in 2006 and it remains to be seen if any of these Republicans can do that either.  

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by: Scarce @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 20:59:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm really scared (4.00 / 1)

Dodd might not win reelection by double digits.

Hooker,If you put as much credence as you're making believe you do in polls 16 months away from elections why are you pushing for Ned Lamont to enter the 2010 Govermnors race or why did you bother to support Lamont primarying Lieberman in 2006.

The absolute transparent Club for Growth tactics being waged by those who want Dodd out here is an insult to anyone who has played this game for more than 5 minutes.

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by: ctkeith @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 20:57:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Because I saw weaknesses in Lieberman's numbers (0.00 / 0)

His approval ratings were low, there was a great deal of unhappiness over the war.  And I saw the same weaknesses in Shays's numbers, especially his approval ratings and the large number of undecideds several months out  And Dodd is showing much worse numbers than those two candidates.

I don't mean to attack Senator Dodd.  But we cannot close our eyes to what the numbers are showing us.

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by: thomashooker @ Fri Jul 24, 2009 at 15:27:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You see "weakness" in Rell? (0.00 / 0)

Just so you know,Lieberman was in the 70s in Approval ratings amongst Dems,Republicans and Independents 16 months out of the 2006 election and the ink on Ned Lamonts check to Lieberman was barely dry.

 

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by: ctkeith @ Fri Jul 24, 2009 at 18:08:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dodd about the speak on Connecticut and health care (0.00 / 0)

Watch for Sen. Dodd to talk about health care, small businesses, Connecticut and SustiNet on the Senate floor today at about 2:15 (he'll interrupt the discussion on defense spending for this.)  

On C-SPAN2 and at http://www.c-span.org/Watch/C-...

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by: iBlog @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 17:56:39 PM UTC