The Canary in the Coal Mine

let's see what happens (0.00 / 0)

Some election integrity activists think that it will be much harder to game the presidential election against a landslide than the famed "it's too close to call" scenarios.  Fear not, between the mythical Bradley effect and the "historic voter turnout -- impossible to predict," there will be plenty of explanations to go around.

Before I cross off Shays, what I'm keeping an eye on is whether the multitude of new voters -- who don't know the underticket candidates and may undervote even more heavily than typical -- will create an opportunity with a high rate of undervotes for either underticket "supplemental" absentee ballot marking, or vote result reporting that alters or mis-states totals (i.e. fraud) in an attempt to return more GOP to Congress, wresting a decisive majority from the Dems while conceding the election to Obama.

It is not clear that traditional models of the rate of undervoting will apply or not.  

One thing about this moment in history (crisis) is that issues tend to be far more clearly deliineated - discomfort is palpable and specific.  IN good times, you have to resort to magic ponies.  My point is, a party that responds to specific discomfort in an uncomfortable time where people have to take action may have an easier time rallying people and organizing than it does when everyone's getting their bonus check and the biggest issue is whether or not to buy a new grill, and government just kind of fades into the background noise.

Do I think the GOP can screw it up and simply make more background noise?  I have complete faith in that.  What's going for them is that they have far more appeal in theory than in practice, and tomorrow they MAY find themselves back on the turf they do best -- whining, detracting, and generally gumming up efforts to do anything.

The recent GOP coalitions I think were not genuinely based on shared commitments, but rather the shared commitment "we will get in bed togeter to win".  How much glue is there when the formula doesn't work?  Is it like waking up from a bender and finding yourself in bed with someone you'd never have gone out with if sober?

On the Dem side, I only hope that a resounding victory doesn't strengthen the cobwebby aspects of the party.  It's one thing to attract people to a vital, well run campaign.  

It's quite another to keep them from screaming and running if they find their way into a CT Dem State Central committee meeting, e.g.  Food for thought on the topic of parties and irrelevancy.  Apparent domination in on election is not the same as a well built, well functioning and (d)emocrati political party, and conclusions about exactly what about the Dem party has been affirmed in this election should not be premature.  

What is going to become clear is exactly which "change" I meant that you didn't.  Could failing to sort this out well and properly result in reports of either the relevancy of the Democratic centrist philosophy or the death of the GOP being greatly exaggerated?

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by: greenpeas @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 14:45:07 PM UTC

The Republican base (0.00 / 0)

is well over 50% rabid right wing haters and control all the levers of the Party.They'll not allow any movement leftward which means, with a little luck and smart activism on our side, they will be the minority party for at least the next 30 yrs.

Obama has the opportunity to move "the center" back to where Richard Nixon would again be considered well right of center.If he does that in the next 8 years he'll go down in history on the same level as FDR.

PS-Scarce,Thanks for all the work you did to make this possible.You are one amazing guy.

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by: ctkeith @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 14:53:42 PM UTC

Will the Dem base in this election facilitate or reduce that likelihood? (0.00 / 0)

If moderate fallen-away Republicans turned off by the current GOP brand are voting for Obama, can he move toward a Nixon-era definition of Democratic?

Is the writhing intestine that is the current state of the GOP so repulsive that anything (to the moderate GOP voter) is better?  Or are they expecting a Dem party that is GOP Lite?

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by: greenpeas @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 15:38:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The election of Obama... (4.00 / 2)

If things go the way they appear and Barack is elected President, I feel our country will have taken a huge step away from the precipice. But we must remember that after we celebrate, the hard work begins, to undo the damage that has been wrought to justice and peace. Can we do it?... I believe someone has told us the answer...Yes We Can!  

But let justice roll down like waters...Amos 5:24a

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by: Jake Blount @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 16:18:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Demographic trends all favor the Democrats (0.00 / 0)

The immigration attacks by the republican party have mobilized Hispanic voters. Kerry had a majority from that group in 2004 but nothing like what Barack Obama will get tonight, nor the outright numbers because Hispanics generally voted less than other groups.

Minorities, classified as those of any race other than non-Hispanic, single-race whites, currently constitute about a third of the U.S. population, according to Census figures. But by 2042, they are projected to become the majority, making up more than half the population. By 2050, 54 percent of the population will be minorities.

....

The group predicted to post the most dramatic gain is the Hispanic population. It is projected to nearly triple, from 46.7 million to 132.8 million, from 2008 through 2050, the bureau said. Its share of the total U.S. population is expected to double from 15 to 30 percent. "Thus, one in three U.S. residents would be Hispanic," the Census Bureau said in a news release.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US...

The Republican party is headed for permanent minority status if it can't figure out how to connect with minority --soon to the majority-- groups.

I would also add a republican party that can't or won't do this and move more to the center is bad for democracy in the United States. One party rule by either party is not a good thing.

PS Thanks for the kind words.

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by: Scarce @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 21:33:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If the Republicans truly become a regional party (4.00 / 1)

which at this point I would say is a little premature (since there are still Republican governors and senators in New England), then maybe that could be an opening for third parties to rise to more prominence in the national stage. That may not be such a bad thing.

The arc of history is long, but it bends toward justice. --Martin Luther King, Jr.

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by: connecticutyankee @ Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 21:48:50 PM UTC

Okay, scarce (0.00 / 0)

We can have that conversation now....

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by: greenpeas @ Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 05:32:48 AM UTC