Travelling to swing states to volunteer? Where should you go?

50% of this poll voted for Ned Lamont... (0.00 / 0)

I went in 2004 to canvass in New Hampshire and in Pennsylvania. What a blast! It hardly mattered that I wasn't so crazy about Kerry. "Anyone But Bush" was the mantra.


"I am not a Blogger...But I play one on the internet."

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by: tessa @ Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 21:22:12 PM UTC

I Must've Been Sleeping... (0.00 / 0)

...when Ned was granted statehood! ;)

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by: dauphinb @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 01:20:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Trips to PA and NH for Obama (0.00 / 0)

Next weekend there will be a trip to Scranton Pennsylvania to Canvass for Obama. This will entail going door-to-door with literature. I am not sure of the logistics but the person to speak to is Jen Just, who is the organizer for Obama in the 3rd CD (Rosa DeLauro's Congressional District) here in Connecticut. She is having an Organizing meeting next week to sign people up for the September 13th Scranton PA trip.  

Organizing Meeting
Tuesday September 9 5pm
Afro-American Cultural Center (New Haven, CT)
211 Park St.
New Haven, CT 06511

Jen will be organizing more events and activities besides this. Also, please register at my.barackobama.com so they have your contact information in the National database. They have a lot of voter registration events listed, as well as films and meet-ups.

For New Hampshire, contact Gretchen Raffa at Planned Parenthood. She is organizing the Connecticut Brigade trips to Manchester, New Hampshire for the following dates:

• Sept 20-21
• October 4-5
• October 18-19
  and ...for the final stretch ...
• November 1 -4

This is targeted door-knocking to Unaffiliated Female voters in Manchester to explain McCain's voting record on Women's Health issues.  Gretchen can be reached at 203-752-2867 or gretchen dot raffa at ppct.org

For both of these contacts you can say "Tessa sent me". It doesn't get you much more than a free slice of pizza but I could use the publicity!


"I am not a Blogger...But I play one on the internet."

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by: tessa @ Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 21:31:31 PM UTC

Most of those states are 50/50 propositions (0.00 / 0)

NH should go to Obama.

MT/ND and especially Alaska should be McCain's.

McCain absolutely has to win Ohio to have any shot at the presidency. If Obama does win there he'll likely also get a blowout win, 330 electoral votes or more.

On the flipsode, McCain could win every one of the states above as some of them will be extremely close.

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by: Scarce @ Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 21:57:13 PM UTC

CO is to 2008, as OH is to 2004, as FL is to 2000, as SC is to 1876 (0.00 / 0)

Don't bother with VA. Although VA is currently very close, it is significantly more Republican than the nation as a whole. As a result, it is very unlikely that VA will be both closely-fought and decisive in the electoral college. Same story with MO, FL, MT, and ND.

I currently see that Obama's leads in the following states are within 2% of his national popular vote lead. It is these states that will determine the electoral result. Because changes in popular opinion in different states are highly correlated, it is unlikely that other states will be both closely-fought and decisive in the electoral college.

State     Lead     Votes
NH        4.7      4
MI        4.7      17
CO        3.5      9
Natl      3.4
OH        1.9      20
NV        1.9      5

If the race is very close, then Obama will most likely win the 243 votes in more Democratic states than these (Gore minus MI), and that McCain will win 240 votes in more Republican states. If the race is very close, I break the scenarios down as follows:

1) McCain wins NV, as expected if the national race is extremely close. In that case, whoever wins 2 out of MI/CO/OH wins the election. NH is completely irrelevant. Out of MI/CO/OH, CO is the most important, since it is the middle of the three. Also, it is the state where a single volunteer can have the most impact, since it is the smallest of the three.

2) McCain loses NV. In that case, Obama needs to win MI/OH, MI/NH, MI/CO, OH/NH, or OH/CO. Because NV is the most Republican of the five swing states, it is likely in this scenario that Obama will win one of these pairs easily.

The conclusion is that CO is the most important state (with MI/OH close behind), and that CO is by far the most effective state in which to volunteer, vote, or spend money.

(As for me, I'm driving down to PA because I have a bunch of friends on a congressional race down there. Additionally, PA is a second-tier swing state, even though it isn't as close to the national average as NH or NV, because its size makes it an absolute must-win for Obama.)

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by: bschak @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 00:51:58 AM UTC

Virginia is turning blue (0.00 / 0)

With a Democratic Governor, and likely two Democratic Governors soon. Also the shifting demographics in the state make it much more likely to turn blue for the presidential race, more so than any of the southern states (with the exception of Florida, which is sort of off on its own).

That said the winner of Virginia will probably be by 1% or less.

Also, Nevada is not the reddest of the five swing states. Bush beat Kerry by only 2% there in 2004 and Clinton won it twice. Clark County (Las Vegas/Henderson,etc) is quite blue, and that is the majority of the state's population.

Another toss-up which could go either way.

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by: Scarce @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 10:13:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree that VA is turning blue... (0.00 / 0)

...and it may even vote for Obama in this election. However, it's still slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole, and is therefore not likely to be a state that is decisive in this election. While it is a "toss-up," it is no "swing state."

Although NV was not the reddest of NH/MI/CO/OH/NV in the 1992-2004 elections (CO was redder in 1996-2004, and OH/NH were redder in 1992), I stand by my belief that NV is the reddest in this election, even though I agree that Obama has a slight edge. Here are various poll-monitoring sites' estimates of Obama's lead in those five states:

State	Me	538	Pollster	RCP
NH	4.7	3.7	1.6	0.3
MI	4.6	3.5	5.1	4.3
CO	3.4	1.8	1.8	0.4
Natl	3.3	2.9	5.6	2.8
OH	1.9	1.1	1.9	-0.6
NV	1.8	-0.2	-0.7	-1.0

Obviously, I consider my estimates to be the best or else I wouldn't publish them, but 538 is in complete agreement about the order of these states, and even the last two sites agree that NV is the most McCain-prone of the bunch.

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by: bschak @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 14:59:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Was in VA on Vacation - few if any McCain bumper stickers (0.00 / 0)

To be fair, it's a big state and I was only there for a weekend at Labor Day, but it was not covered in McCain stickers and signs.  In fact, there were hardly any signs at all, but the few bumper stickers I saw were for Obama.  this was in the Charlottesville area (which seems to have a big influx of not-from-there people), plus on the highway between there and DC.

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by: greenpeas @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 15:36:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

About the bumper stickers (0.00 / 0)

I kinda wonder if McCain supporters are less likely to have bumper stickers than Obama supporters are. I work in a building with plenty of Republicans, but I've only seen one McCain sticker in the parking lot, which usually has a couple hundred cars. Maybe now that Sarah Palin has energized them, the stickers will start to pop up.

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by: bschak @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 22:34:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Cville has ALWAYS leaned democratic (0.00 / 0)

because of the university and medical centers, probably.

the Republican stronghold is in other parts of the state.

.Adding Another Dimension of Vituperation Toxicity to Blogging since 1999!.

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by: nolopro @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 02:47:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mark Warner, Tim Kaine (0.00 / 0)

There's not much to get excited about if you're a republican living in Virginia. Tom Davis has seen enough and is retiring. That leaves Eric Cantor as their lone brightspot.

And Michigan looks farther out than the pollsters have recorded. My bet is Obama will win comfortably there, by 5-8%. McCain could have made a play for it by picking Romney but they have a mutual dislike so that was never going to work.

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by: Scarce @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 17:47:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

New Hampshire...use those extra 6 hours pp to canvass (0.00 / 0)

For those who have only gone to NH for primary canvassing, let me tell you that it is a completely different ball of wax during the general. Not nearly as exciting, very few rallies or events, and the need for volunteers is huge. It especially makes sense for people in the northern half of the state. I get to Nashua or Keene in under 2 hours.  

As for this year in particular, especially with McCain, it will be close and those electoral votes are needed. Right now it is statistically dead even and NH is notoriously hard to pull samples for polling. Additionally, I know this is a state where Clinton supporters are particularly bitter. Further, I recently spoke with long-time friend (a town chair in NH),and an Obama consultant who worked NH for Kerry and both said the same thing - they are not getting and don't expect nearly the flow of volunteers from MA this year. I have been also told that word is there are groups of people coming down from Canada to volunteer up north!!

BUT LET'S NOT FORGET that we have some very important races right here in CT. Good people like John Hartwell, Jim Himes, David Stevenson and so many more. And there is no debate on this one - THEY ALL NEED YOUR HELP!

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by: famillionaire @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 12:02:34 PM UTC

Does network availability in states point us to any conclusions? (0.00 / 0)

Recently while on vacation I was in a town where the only local news was Faux News, at least on the hotel TV!  I am wondering if a scan of what states have extremely limited news coverage would provide any info that suggests that contact with door to door or callers could expose people to a completely different experience than they've had in making up their minds.  Could that increase the impact of direct voter to voter contact?

Just a thought.  In the end going somewhere is better than nowhere, but appreciate the leads on states where help is appreciated.

Dave, you might want to check out a new book on Ohio 2004 election that Luther Weeks of ctvoterscount.org read from cover to cover (and followed the statistical arguments) - this is from a man who did extensive research and concludes that the election in fact was stolen there.  Luther is hardly a conspiracy monger, and I believe majored in mathemematics in college, so if he says the statistical arguments make sense, he has far more credibility than I would (I avoided math like the plague).

Author is Richard Hayes Phillips, title is Witness to a Crime: A Citizens' Audit of an American
Election, 448 pages.  he even had a hard time getting it published.

He may be in CT this month -- was in NYC this week -- and I hear he is an excellent, excellent speaker.

FWIW -- one hopes that your work in Ohio, had you gone, would have been among pivotal work, but this book demonstrates that there may be much  more at play in these "close" elections than many voters realize.

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by: greenpeas @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 12:54:40 PM UTC

Go where you have familiarity (0.00 / 0)

If you are familiar with an area because of friends or family or work I'd let that guide your decision. It's hard to game out what state will be most important but you'll be most persuasive someplace where you are comfortable.

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by: joejoejoe @ Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 17:34:53 PM UTC

Sorry, joejoejoe, but this is Crap (0.00 / 0)

The organizers provide you with maps, lit, talking points etc.
When I went to New Hampshire and to Pennsylvania in 2004 there was a 30 minute "training session" before we went out.

This is easy and fun and especially in New Hampshire (where they are used to door-knockers) they are very friendly.

Plus, we know where to stop for the best cider donuts and pumpkin donuts on the way up! (Want to have fun with politics? Ask a fat lady how...)

"I am not a Blogger...But I play one on the internet."

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by: tessa @ Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 19:09:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's crap? (0.00 / 0)

I basically said all other things being equal go where you are most familiar.

Here are 538.com's predictions of what state will tip the election (their EVs push the campaign past 269 to win).

Tipping Point states
Colorado - 37%
Michigan - 32%
Ohio - 24%
Virginia - 22%
Florida - 12%
Nevada - 9%
New Hampshire - 6%

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

You don't think there is ANY change in effectiveness among canvassers who are familiar with an area vs. those who are not? How about Howard Dean's experience in Iowa in 2004? He had plenty of canvassers, just not from Iowa. I'm not slagging the Obama campaign (or any campaign). They have a spectacular system and it's highly organized. But all other things being equal if you went to college in Virginia or you grew up in Ohio or you used to spend summers with your Aunt in Florida -- these things should be a factor where you volunteer.

If somebody has no ties and no financial restraints, go to Colorado.

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by: joejoejoe @ Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 20:23:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

538.com (0.00 / 0)

I've heard of this site before, but thanks to your link, I just visited it today.

Very interesting site. I'm not exactly sure which side of the spectrum Nate Silver leans toward, but I like how he gives the odds for many scenarios of how Obama (or McCain) can win or lose a state and eventually win or lose the whole election. Frankly, I don't know how he comes up with the actual odds. Is he some mathematical genius? I hope there is a lot of science (and math) behind his odds making. Or else, his whole site IS CRAP. (Sorry, I just keep seeing that word on this thread ;-) )

But the funny thing with odds is that they are just that. Reality will still follow what it wants to follow (unless the odds for that version of reality are ZERO, of course).

Thank you for introducing me to more sites to run down through each day between now and election day.

The arc of history is long, but it bends toward justice. --Martin Luther King, Jr.

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by: connecticutyankee @ Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 23:19:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nate Silver (0.00 / 0)

He's a well-known baseball statistics expert so he's used to having passionate people challenge his work. 538 is a fairly new site and he's explained his methodology in the blog posts in the past that information scrolls away making it hard for people to figure 'How does he come up with this stuff?'.

He's demonstrated to my satisfaction with his explanations that he's highly credible with his political work but some of my ease in accepting his work is based on his reputation in the baseball world where is work approaches the gold standard.

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by: joejoejoe @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 00:17:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nate, or Poblano at DailyKos (0.00 / 0)

..is extremely well-versed statistician. Highly respected on that front. I actually knew him, or of him, from his poker postings (which is surprisingly a highly mathematical game) on the net.

You can be assured the math is accurate. The real question is whether the methodology he uses (poll weighting, demography, historical results,etc) to arrive at those numbers is sound. So far he's been proven remarkably accurate since the primary's began.

And although he is a Democrat, and would like Obama to win, if anything his regression method is somewhat conservative.

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by: Scarce @ Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 00:37:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]